Quote:
Originally Posted by HeroOrZero
In Live PLO with 5 handed to a flop with a table who under bluffs- no I would not be bluffing into 5 guys. It is face up- but I'd rather be scooping 500+ or coolering a deuce than checking a flop that will go checks around for a free card. Online- 6max different story. 9 handed Live no way.
So... what's your question then? It sounds like you got this figured out.
Flop isn't getting checked through though, is it? If an opponent has a deuce are they going to check? They have a deuce here about 35% of the time. There is an overpair present 97% of the time (in my sim I'm weighting the LRR to a high percent AA, but I think double suited run downs are also here), so about 9% of turns are pretty bad for you (pair or deuce = 4 outs). The point though is that when a deuce is present your action doesn't matter, bet or check, money will go into the pot the majority of the time.
I started to think through how to compare checking to betting under the above parameters in the case the board was two tone, because some fraction of the time a flush pays off, but it's a bit of work and I don't think it matters much. My logic was that it is likely much better to check on two tone boards than to check on rainbow boards.
edit: ultimately I am struggling to make a case for checking - not having worked through it. Which, I think, also means, we should bet a 6 blocker here a decent amount of the time.