This is a real ****ty spot on this flop. I am kinda mad I bet so small as it was so inviting for a 150ish bluff raise, which is EXACTLY what i get, and now I am not sure what to do. I have the open ender, so i def dont mind getting it in vs any two pair. super draw heavy flop so is this just a shove since I have improvement? Thoughts?

ull Tilt Poker $2/$4 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players - View hand 40804
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $341.90
BTN: $320.05
SB: $400.00
Hero (BB): $1048.50
UTG: $489.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with A 9 A 8
UTG raises to $14, 3 folds, Hero raises to $44, UTG calls $30

Flop: ($90.00) Q 7 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $56, UTG raises to $148,

Yer, I'm not quite sure why you bet so small. I would get it in now because you could have induced off all sorts of crap.

against a lone opponent, the extra equity from the OESD plus what gavz said = straight forward push, unless your opponent is ultra tight.

This line of reasoning goes to hell quickly if it's multi-way.

Snap fold, you are really, really crushed here so often.

I'm having a hard time thinking of anything much worse for hero than this:

Omaha Hi Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: qc7c6h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
ahad8c9d 12.50% 38 129
8h9c6d6c 87.50% 653 129

and

Omaha Hi Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: qc7c6h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
ahad8c9d 21.22% 103 142
8h9c7h6c 78.78% 575 142

Which are asking a bit much, especially the first one since it requires 4 exact cards.

This is a more realistic downside:

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Qc7c6h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhAd8c9d 32.19% 191,296 3,682
McMcMM,QQ** 67.81% 405,022 3,682


All these are bad but hero is looking at putting in $380 for a $980 pot. It doesn't take too much more to make a push +EV.

Pretty sure you just helped my argument for folding.

Don't confuse the EV of this play with calling $380 to win $980 with around 33% equity, because that isn't what's happening.

It's sticking the money in bad with no FE.

It's helped if that's all villain has here. If he also plays games with something weaker then probably not.

You're right, it's better than that. What's debatable is how much better than that.

Silent, whats the actual EV in the scenario above? +$73?

Not trying to be a dick, just not sure if my math is right.

I tried to put UTG on range and I don't think the Hero is in bad shape...He is from 1:2 to 4.5:5.5 underdog to FD and wrap, FD, wrap and pair. 1:2 vs pure set, 1:4 to set with FD. It also depends on the UTG characteristic. Please,explain. Maybe UTG' flop RR makes range of UTG hands much thiner?

Reads on villain?

Bet/folding this flop seems pretty bad to me.

play

If we are talking about the QQxx and McMcMM scenario, then hero has a shove EV of about -65 = 0.32*980-380. But this was meant to be the downside of villain's range. There are plenty of pure draw hands that many people will shove with here against which hero has quite a bit more equity than 32%.

All I am trying to say is that a push, at worst, isn't spewy and could easily be +EV.

OP is capable of folding AA, villain probably knows that, and so his hand doesn't need to be all that strong here to raise. This is a snap push imo.