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Correct Fold on a connected flop Correct Fold on a connected flop

02-14-2024 , 12:09 PM
Hi guys

just wanted thoughts as felt super nitty to fold a flop ive connected flop with quite well ? figured there would be a set and or a nut flush draw to compete with



iPoker - €1 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: €207.63
SB: €99.00
BB: €208.01
Hero (UTG): €214.00
MP: €101.50
CO: €105.28

SB posts SB €0.50, BB posts BB €1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: €1.50) Hero has T K T J

Hero raises to €3.00, fold, CO raises to €10.50, BTN calls €10.50, SB calls €10.00, fold, Hero calls €7.50

Flop: (€43.00, 4 players) 7 Q 9
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets €43.00, BTN raises to €172.00, fold, fold, CO calls €51.78

Turn: (€232.56, 2 players) 5

River: (€232.56, 2 players) 5

CO shows 9 7 Q 5 (Full House, Fives full of Queens)
(Pre 47%, Flop 25%, Turn 11%)
BTN shows 7 T 7 T (Full House, Sevens full of Fives)
(Pre 53%, Flop 75%, Turn 89%)
BTN wins €228.56
Correct Fold on a connected flop Quote
02-14-2024 , 03:35 PM
So 3 way I have you at 42% vs nutty ranges of sets, q9+draw,AQ with dd,etc. Looks like a definitely GII.
Correct Fold on a connected flop Quote
02-15-2024 , 06:36 AM
If no one has bigger diamonds you’re printing a lot. If someone has higher diamonds you probably fall a bit short of required equity. In close spots we should be gii.
Correct Fold on a connected flop Quote
02-15-2024 , 10:40 AM
ok cool thanks guys was practically the dream flop but 200bbs on a raise and re-raise scared me off
Correct Fold on a connected flop Quote
02-15-2024 , 11:37 AM
I don't think this is nearly as trivial as it's being made out to be.

I don't want to do the work of including the effect of the third player, because it would take a bit longer and I'm at work, but just focusing on the reraise to essentially put us all in. Against a single opponent our SPR is about 4.5 which means we need 45% equity. My sim, vs the button range of (7%-25%!AA):(QQ, 99, 77, dd:(AdQ, KdK, Q9), Q9:(dd, TJ)) has us at 44.7%.

Of course, 3rd player probably has AA type hand.

Oh hell, I'll just do it. Give the all in guy 10%:(AA, KK, Q, dd, TJ)

We have 38.3% equity in the main, and 44.7% equity in the side.

EV_main = +$30.59
EV_side = -$10.85

EV_total = +$19.74

So, yeah, call it off here, but it's important to go through this work imo.
Correct Fold on a connected flop Quote
02-15-2024 , 11:39 AM
It won't let me edit and add the excel screenshot:
Correct Fold on a connected flop Quote
02-15-2024 , 09:20 PM
Gii, mostly because of the wrap.

I’m folding without the K.
Correct Fold on a connected flop Quote
02-16-2024 , 10:56 AM
This comes down to your poker mentality and your bankroll! Plenty of PLO Players are never folding here with zero 2nd thoughts .. just part of the game.

How comfortable are you flipping 'with' 200bb? What is the threshold for you? If you are near your threshold, then you should only consider your nut outs in these decisions. I count 10 nut outs and some 'probably' wishful thinking outs via the flush. (You're either drawing or blocking when it comes to flushes) You also have to consider that against 2 opponents that both the flush and full house redraws are there even if you nail the Turn.

This particular spot interests me due to stack sizes. I can get most/all of my chips back if I win the side pot and lose the main pot .. I like that!

I can probably take playing against CO here quite often, especially getting the better pot odds with less BB at risk. But it's the B range that has me most concerned and I need to beat them first (or tie). We have no Showdown value right now .. it's a 100% draw and hold spot. If you are comfortable with those spots then have at it.

I've made both these calls and these folds and that's probably not a good way to go about it but that's just me. For my game I know I can build a stack (slowly) in my Player Pool that I don't always need to jump into these spots, but they are fun!

Super Nitty? For some, yes for sure. For some, Nitty but not Super Nitty.

I will offer this to you .. "You are reducing variance without putting any chips at risk" GL
Correct Fold on a connected flop Quote

      
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