3 handed, Hero has button

Hero (13K) raises to $175 with 2 K Q 8
Villain (9K) in SB calls, BB folds.

A note about reads; there had been a spewy fish at the table who had just busted and left; while he was there, us 3 regs has more or less stayed out of each other's way, each hoping to cash in on the obvious fish. We had played 4-handed on another table a little while earlier, and the moment fish busted and left, villain sat out and game insta-broke, and I was nearly positive same thing was about to happen here; I really, really don't think Villain was looking to do anything crazy now that fish was gone...probably just wanted to take his 4K profit and book it.

Flop ($400): 2 K 8
villain checks, Hero bets $400, villain calls.

Turn ($1,200): Q
villain checks, Hero bets $1,200, villain raises to $4,800.

Hero...?

Based on read above, i can't see him showing up with anything OTHER than a set here, but I hate fearing the cinch hand....

easy fold

there have got to be 1000000 semi-bluffing hands for him here.. I cant imagine folding vs 4 combos.

that said, if ur confident in ur read, go with it.

edit: i guess there arent THAT many combo draws.

people play really weird in spots where tables are about to break....there's so much more levelling involved, because people think other people are going to be doing certain things because its about to break, etc

Yeh, but the guys raised full pot and committed after heros shown a lot of strength. I think its a puke fold.

Awful spot.
Then again he reps a hand we have zero outs against and we have strong reasons to believe him, even though it´s really unlikely.

When tilting I ship, lose to KK, curse.

When playing well I fold, curse.

If lucking out this pot gets me about even, I ship.

If losing what I put in the pot keeps me in small + or about even, I fold like I am supposed to.

If I've been runner gud and winning a lot so losing this pot wouldn't even hurt me... I probably touch my Fortuna statue for luck and then get it in bad knowingly.

And of course, if I am playing very well, I puke fold.

Please don't lie, I am sure I am not the only one that makes scoreboard decisions.

I'm sure folding this is super exploitable. FFS we have blockers to all sets, that said committing here w/o a set would be really unusual for villain w/o top two+ and most likely top two + redraw. It seems like a fold.

This has to be 1 of the higher sets if it really is a set, right?

Results, I shoved, he calls w/ QQxx + diamonds, gg.

Next time curse and fold bro.

Fold quick. Live players do not semi-bluff into strength. Esp given description.

if he wanted to semi bluff, I think he's much more likely to do so on the flop.