Live 5-5

[Hero] BTN straddles 10
SB nit (1.2k deep) calls 10
BB nit (300 deep) calls 10
UTG calls 10
MP LAG fish (1.2k deep) calls 10
HJ calls 10
CO calls 10
Hero (2k deep) checks Qs 6c 4c 4h

Pot 70

Flop Td 7h 4s

SB checks
BB checks
UTG checks
MP bets 70
HJ folds
CO folds
Hero calls 70
SB calls 70
BB calls 70
UTG folds

Pot 350

MP loads his hand with 350 in chips

Turn Qd

SB checks
BB checks
MP bets the 350 in his hand

Hero?

if we give him a range of all sets, top two pair, or any available wrap on the flop, then we are basically flipping with that range on the turn. i don't know if this is the kind of player who is continuing 100% of that range on this specific turn after getting called in three spots though. some LAG fish are just continuing on 100% of turns that don't change texture, others may be slowing down with the low end of that range or if they have 0 diamonds. any more detailed reads would help.

i think i would prefer a flop raise vs. this opponent. letting the blinds tag along at a good price seems bad on such a wet board. if you get 3bet on flop by SB you can probably just fold.

as played, i think it's a tough spot on turn but i probably just rip it, absent more info about the fish. i'm not expecting SB to show up with TT very often as played, if BB has a higher set then we are still good in the side pot vs. MP's draw. sometimes you're getting crushed here but against a fishy player at this stack depth, i am not getting away.

I decided not to raise the flop because villain bet full pot. There's no flush draw, so no one was getting a great price to call OOP unless they have a wrap (which has huge equity against me anyway).

But I probably should've raised and played for stacks on the flop. Villain was steaming a bit.

I think without the Q in my hand, I'd just fold the turn. I don't like playing for stacks in a limped pot without a big draw or something closer to the nuts.

Q should make you more willing to fold than call or raise.

It's quite bad card for you.

what makes you think it's quite a bad card? it's not the best card for hero but in the universe of possible turns, there are many worse ones.

if villain does have a higher set, we just picked up two outs. we block QQ, and it's also less likely that anyone just improved to queens up. yes, it puts a diamond draw out there, and adds some outs for some straight draws, but with one card to come we are still in fine shape against anything other than TT or 77. overall i think it's a fairly neutral card vs. villain's perceived range, especially when we factor in that a LAG would have probably raised pre with some hands that pick up outs on this card or think they do (KQJ9, KJT9, etc).

What are TWO Nits calling with on this Flop .. and one of them is short, per se?

I've been folding more bottom sets 'as of late' and I'm a much happier Player for it! Doesn't mean it's right.

I guess I'd be fine losing to Fish 66xx HU since they have plenty of 2 pr/wraps in their range. The issue is expecting the two Nits to fold and there's no side pot with Fish if SB comes along. Yes, a flush draw came in, but MP was loading up chips before the card came out .. meaning they were committed before seeing it.

Set v wrap/2pr range and Players behind that can have us crushed.

While the Q gives us two nut outs, we would normally pick up 3 outs on the Turn .. which might be irrelevant if 66xx is already out there. Variance spot! GL

I think that I framed it wrong. I'm saying that Q in their hand doesn't make Q a good turn.

another way of framing this is, what are two nits flatting with OOP on the flop and checking turn? BB should never have a set here when he can get his entire stack in on the flop with a x/r. and even if he does, we are almost always a favorite in a large side pot against the fish.

that leaves SB, who depending on how nitty and trappy he is could still have a set, but there are far more combinations of draws / combo hands that a nit would play as a pure flat / check turn. we are still beating those. a major nit may even consider folding 77 when we jam turn, depending on hero's image.

the relatively unlikely scenario that SB has exactly 77 or TT is also why i prefer raising flop. rather put in 250 and fold to a SB jam if he is truly that nitty.

Is it worse to call or fold the turn as played?

I think in the long run it's worse to fold .. You're only losing to 3 sets right now against a LAG Fish. There are no 5-card hands out there right now. I know it may have looked like I advocated folding bottom set in my original post, but with the passive action EXCEPT from the Player with the widest range it's really hard to do so in this spot.

Your issue is that you have two V behind that could also know that this is a LAG Fish and be waiting to pounce.

So the correct question is to call or shove? And based on the stack sizes I'm not allowing a couple of Nits to get great Pot Odds on whatever they are sitting on their hands with, so shove it is and see what happens. GL

I'm a nit, but I let it go on the turn. If we are not already behind, a ton of cards kill us on the river.