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Bottom Full House on Turn Bottom Full House on Turn

02-18-2020 , 05:30 PM
BTN: 106.05 BB
SB: 142.69 BB
Hero (BB): 101.5 BB
UTG: 145.81 BB
MP: 104.28 BB
CO: 239.48 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4s 4h Ah 5h
UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, CO calls 3.5 BB, fold, SB calls 3 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Flop : (14 BB, 4 players) Jh 4c 6c
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks

Turn : (14 BB, 4 players) Jd
SB checks, Hero bets 10 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 35.5 BB

Hero?

Hey, wondering if I should be check calling the turn instead of betting? As played, should I just be folding? I only had 4 hands on villain so no reads.
Bottom Full House on Turn Quote
02-19-2020 , 01:29 AM
I'm not betting turn.

Our equity is fairly robust except against combos that we don't want to inflate the pot against anyway (especially with poor position against most of the players at the table): we don't have much incentive to deny equity or build a pot. (Therefore: aggression isn't very productive.)

Even Jxxx has us guessing more than we'd like, and we're dead or dead to one out sometimes.

Keep the pot small.

As played, I'm just folding to the raise.

This spot isn't where your profits are built from.
Bottom Full House on Turn Quote
02-19-2020 , 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DevWil

This spot isn't where your profits are built from.
This is a very dangerous mindset and I would implore you to let go of it. Every single spot in poker is one where we have the capacity to improve our decision-making process and gain more EV by playing better than we used to and better than our opponents. A spot may be low profit and high variance, but that alone doesn't mean we should just always fold.

Having said that, I do bet the turn, and now fold to the raise.
Bottom Full House on Turn Quote
02-19-2020 , 12:19 PM
My reason for betting was that once the two players behind us check the flop it makes it much less likely they have 66 or J6. A bare J6 with no back doors might check but it's less likely. I also feel that on the turn the SB would be betting his J6 hands a lot of the time to get value from another J or a lower Full house. He could still have 66 but I wanted to get value from anyone with a lone J.
I see a merit for checking turn however since if we get called there aren't gonna be many good rivers other than like a 2 or 3 so we could be put in some tough river spots in an inflated pot now.
Bottom Full House on Turn Quote
02-19-2020 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wazz
This is a very dangerous mindset...
I think we're talking about slightly different things, which I take responsibility for in not being clearer.

And even at that, I take your advice seriously, as I do think I sometimes sacrifice some EV in order to reduce variance or even just the complexity of my decision making (as my typical poker session is playing 11-13 tables of both PLO and NLH, so being efficient is important to my hourly even if I'm sacrificing bb/100).

I mostly meant that this spot (when the turn comes off; before we check or bet) isn't as high EV as it looks and it's just not in the highest percentiles of profitable PLO situations (the moments that build the bulk of our profits).

I was mostly warning against an overly broad mentality of "full house, let's play a big pot", and I was too terse.

But ultimately: it's just kind of hard to make money off of a worse hand across the final two streets of betting here and it's extremely easy to lose a lot of money to a better hand.

So I just wanted to remind OP that this just isn't the most profitable full house we're going to find.
Bottom Full House on Turn Quote

      
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