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Originally Posted by oxie
I've though about this situation a lot and wether checking the R was correct.
Instinctively, the counterfeit on the top was the primary reason. As you stated, all he then needed was AK or AAs and I'm losing on both. If he has a set on either, then he just boated up and he's never folding.
Ironically, the TT on both boards means not only can you get counterfeited on top board, but you can counterfeit villain on bottom board. I'm not sure if my messages included this, but after thought, I decided this balances out.
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The other problem I had was that I only had <$400 left and the pot was $1,800. I couldn't see him folding if he had the slimmest connection.
I agree which is another reason I would not pot the turn, because it's pretty much committing your entire stack with medium holdings.
i.e. what would you do if villain bets $400 on the river? Could you fold? If not, then a villain with a made hand can freeroll you.
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but I also feel strongly that shoving is very -EV.
So do I, and that's probably why I dislike betting turn in your place. Because on the turn I play out the scenarios:
1) bad rivers
2) good rivers
3) brick rivers
#1 is straightforward: diamond on top, A on the bottom, we know we're trash and wish we could have saved our turn bet.
#2 i'm not actually super excited to have a bigger pot, unless I bink gin cards (e.g., K on top, Ac on bottom). Merely hitting KK444 on top, and a king-high flush on the bottom, that's great.... until opponent insta-shoves and then I know he has me beat on at least 1 board but i'm just calling my last 400 for a chop
#3 is the situation which happened. So we get to the river with everything missing, and basically nothing changed (except counterfeit potential swapped our equity with villain). If I'm not confident in my hand strength on the river, I shouldn't be confident on my hand strength on the turn.
(the exception to this is if I have a monster draw before the river, in which case I shovel in money before scare cards shut things down. But (1) 2nd-nut flush draw + (2) 2nd-nut gutshots isn't strong enough to be a monster draw IMO)