Double board bomb pot (playing 2-5 NL at wsop). V1 covers, V2 has 900 and hero has 1400

Hero in utg1 with AQQ5ds nut spades no clubs.

Flops (160) :

KsTc9s
9c7s6s

So we have nfd on both, gutter on top

2 checks, V1 in utg pots 160, hero calls, V2 in utg2 goes ai 900, V1 goes ai 1400, back to hero

Fold as played, not enough equity.

Hero can actually consider a tight fold on flop with his flush draw diluted across 2 boards / not closing the action.

My gut says its a stack. Just a hunch though not confident

Gonna take an EV calc to work it out. I think i know how to do one, ill have a play around and see if i can produce something

Ok did the EV calc, surprised at how much its losing.

Feel free to point out any mistakes:

What did you assign for ranges to come up with your winning percentages? Did you account for card removal effects on 2nd board?

I don't want to do a long write-up on this, due to the complexity, but would consider a 34% equity on board 1 to be generous / optimistic.

High 20s seems more realistic.

Yeh its a complex calc so gotta take some high level assumptions here an there.

I gave reasonable ranges to both players i.e. hands that have equity on both boards with at least one nut component on one board. I gave both players same ranges for simplicity.

I took into account card removal, you can see the probabilities change when wining a board and losing a board.

I think in complex spots like this if you can do something thats >85% accuracy its good enough. Like I initially thought stacking flop would be +EV but the exercise showed me it wasnt without the exercise being perfect

Turns out I botched the calculations.

Keeping my range assumptions the same, the EV is actually -$359. Way worse than I thought.

EV loss comes from the fact that you lose both boards so often and the amount to call off is so large compared to what's in the pot.

What changed exactly? Your ev calc where you showed your work doesn't seem wrong (unless the equity numbers are wrong). In both cases you are calling 620 to win 1310 (if I understand these double boards correctly).

There are 4 scenarios that i outlined. Each scenario has its own probability (e.g scenario 1 is 0.34 * 0.24) and then multiply that probability by the scenario’s EV , then sum all the EVs

I played around a bit and 35% seems reasonable for either board, this is assuming there are at least 2 spades in either opponents hand.

if each villain is playing for one board only and each has the current nut, you are about 50%. add 2 spades to either of villains' hands and you drop to 36%. give them both 2 spades and you are at 25% for both boards.

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i would be getting it in here all day without thinking. why is this wrong?

bc we have to put in your whole stack, we're getting around 2:1 (900 to win 1960) on the main and 1:1 (500 to win 500) on the side. Side sounds bad, but villain has to beat you on both to scoop and i think we are more primed to scoop.

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Giving one oppnent spades:

Omaha Double Board Bombpot Equity Calculation
Boards: Ks9sTc, 9c7s6s
Player 1 has AsQsQh5h (Total Equity: 37.2%):
- Equity: 40.3%, 34.1%
- Win: 39.9%, 34.1%
- Tie: 0.8%, 0.0%
Player 2 has QcJc3s2s (Total Equity: 32.0%):
- Equity: 57.2%, 6.9%
- Win: 56.8%, 6.9%
- Tie: 0.8%, 0.0%
Player 3 has Td8d3d2d (Total Equity: 30.8%):
- Equity: 2.6%, 59.0%
- Win: 2.6%, 59.0%
- Tie: 0.0%, 0.0%
Calculated at www.DinoPoker.com

I understand math, I'm just not 'deep math guy' ..

1) Main Pot .. you have to put in 900 in hopes of winning 1430 'some of the time' .. not exactly the best odds for a flush draw/gutter

2) Side Pot .. you're getting 1 to 1 and have to draw out to break even

Yes, PLO is a 'wild and crazy time' but you actually end up making more head scratching folds to eyes of the Rec world. There's just not enough chips in the pot and the very few times you might scoop don't make up for the times you are risking 1400 to profit 530. GL

It doesnt work like this. You have given each player a specific hand but they have a range of hands.

Another factor indicating a fold to initial flop bet is that this is a NLHE game, not PLO. These people typically have little double board experience and overplay all kinds of crap. So probability of the initial bet being raised is much higher than it would ordinarily be.

In my reply you quoted I wrote that I played around with it. I am not familiar with syntax used in omaha range calculators, but I have found a workaround that works well just due to the nature of the game having 4 cards in your hand.

You can play around with equity calculators and actually give a player a range of hands with a couple of single hand matchups. you can combo it out across 2 - 6 different calculations and you have a really good idea of the equity match up. For example, you can give a player flush draw + pair + gutter and that covers a chunk of hands. u can run the sim again without the gutter, with an overpair, and get a good idea of how your hand stacks up against the likely ranges you are up against.

The example at the end of my reply was just that, and a decent one to include - His nut draw against two current nuts on both boards and 2 dead spades. That's a reasonably bad situaion for him and it is still a +EV call.

here's a worse case example:

Omaha Double Board Bombpot Equity Calculation
Boards: Tc9sKs, 7s6s9c
Player 1 has AsQsQh5h (Total Equity: 30.4%):
- Equity: 32.3%, 28.6%
- Win: 32.3%, 28.6%
- Tie: 0.0%, 0.0%
Player 2 has 9h9d2s3c (Total Equity: 35.5%):
- Equity: 4.9%, 66.0%
- Win: 4.9%, 65.6%
- Tie: 0.0%, 0.8%
Player 3 has Kd2dKc3s (Total Equity: 34.1%):
- Equity: 62.8%, 5.4%
- Win: 62.8%, 5.0%
- Tie: 0.0%, 0.8%
Calculated at www.DinoPoker.com