Live 5-5

BTN straddles 10
SB Fish calls 10 (1k stack)
BB Fish calls 10 (1k stack)
MP folds
HJ [Hero] TAG raises to 50 with Ac Ks Jd 3c (1.5k stack)
CO Fish calls 50 (300 stack)
BTN Fish calls 50 (2k stack)
SB calls 50
BB calls 50

Pot 250

Flop As 8c 4s

SB checks
BB checks
Hero bets 125
CO folds
BTN calls 125
SB folds
BB folds

Pot 500

Turn Kh

Hero bets 325
BTN shoves for 1325

Hero?

Check flop. Betting here is pretty bad.

I have the Ks blocker and a backdoor nut flush draw. And it's hard for anyone to have a wrap. If I get called on the flop, I should be able to win with continued aggression on a lot of turns.

It's 5 way to the flop. You have little to no re-draw and there are not that many turns for which you can improve on besides a King or backdoor flush draw.

I agree with MarkD, check flop.

And it sounds like your plan is to turn this hand into a bluff 5 way. That's not a sound strategy.

Do y'all check-call or check-fold on the flop? Because I like neither.

I think theoretically your hand is a fine bluff even 5 way on the flop.

Of course that would assume our opponents are solid thinking players which is evidently not the case as were 5 way on the flop.

The bluff ev of this hand depends a lot on our opponents making good lay downs like, some mediocre combo draws on the flop, or some flushes on later streets.

This becomes a lot worse if our opponents are random fish.

The straddle and subsequent calls make this bluff also less effective as there’s much less room to apply pressure vs the 1k stacks.

Considering all that it’s a marginal bluff at best and never a big mistake to just check/give up

Did you try some equity calcs for the turn?

I agree 5 way should be checking and most likely folding to a bet. OTT - he's not shoving two pair, so sets/maybe a big combo draw? I think this is a call given our pot odds but knowing how your typical live player plays in these games is the real answer

My thinking on the turn:

I'm the PFR and a TAG, so I'm supposed to have AAxx, AKKx, or AKxx.
He's not scared of AKxx.
Fish have a lot of small-pair hands in their range that can flop sets.
I have the Ks to block the nut flush draw.
There aren't legit wraps on the board, just triple gutters (e.g. QJTx on this A84K board).
On the other hand, fish think a triple gutter is a wrap.

I ran it through a solver for what it's worth:

Flop is a check 5-way.
If you discount/ignore the CO short stack and make the flop 4-way, you could check or bet the flop.
As played, turn is a check (but solver checks 90% of its range on the turn, probably incorrectly).
As played, turn is a fold to the shove. Solver also folds AK44.

But solver assumes all players are thinking players.

did villain slow-play set on flop?

or hit 2 pair on turn?

does he have AK too?... what are the generals odds of that? i realize "true odds" are opponent and specific hand dependent

you have 4 cards so AK is not that likely

5 ways check this, if your going to bet at least bomb it because you aren’t betting half pot 5 ways with top set.

With the straddle this is basically 5/10 so once we get to turn and bet we can’t fold, probably getting free rolled / drawing dead a bunch as played.

Ps; what’s up with the small raise PF?

How did you solve that 5 way?

90% turn check seems off.

Fold to a shove seems reasonable though as this is essentially bottom of our range and ranges are pretty strong here.

I thought I raised pot pre.

FlopHero. 150bb. Hero opens HJ. CO, BTN, SB, and BB call.

Hah interesting. The 90% turn check seems crazy off tho so I’d be a bit skeptical of using such multi-way solutions.

Yeah, PLO solvers for multi-way are kind of trash...

Yeah, also 4w+ spots imply there are a bunch of fish in the hand which would also make the solves less relevant.

You can do some proper 3w solves in monker to give you some ideas for how to play multi-way.

If it can solve 3w why can't it solve 10w? I feel like monker could solve any multi-way spot for the ranges put into it. It sort of has to be able to.

Is Monker better than FlopHero?

Monker uses a level of abstraction to solve, bucketing categories, unlike for example PIO which is more precise.

This is why monker can do multi-way and heavy preflop sims more feasibly.

The end solution is a product of the inputs so I would expect that the inaccuracies are going to multiply and go up exponentially the more complex/further out you go in the game tree.

This is also why when using monker to solve a flop you resolve turn and river manually for more accuracy.

The 5w solve coming up with a 90% check in the turn in this hand seems like a good example of inaccuracies quickly spiralling out of control.

Sorry .. didn't read all comments.

But you are checking Flop 'so' you can bet/call Turn action and hopefully get to a decent Showdown on an improving card like this.

You don't have AAxx .. you didn't bet Flop .. that's just how PLO players think.
You could have KKxx .. but apparently this Player doesn't buy it or care .. or has it themselves.

I highly doubt a decent Player is blasting other 2-pr .. could be a chop/set. Problem with the Fish label is that you do end up making these calls more often than you would against a stronger Player. It comes down to Table/Player dynamic and what a 'pot' bet means.

What does a Fish perceive as value here when there's really no draws other than flush .. you block Ks8s.

So you need to decide how often this is 2pr/flush v set and then decide if it's worth your whole stack. GL

In my experience in the live game setting you describe, this looks like a scared fish with 88 or 44 that wants to see the turn to make sure a spade doesn't come before committing his stack. Looks like a fold to me. Just my 2 cents.

Yes, this. Every time I've gotten the money in with top two like this in the past, opponents always show me small sets.