Quote:
Originally Posted by crimsonchin
I think theoretically your hand is a fine bluff even 5 way on the flop.
Of course that would assume our opponents are solid thinking players which is evidently not the case as were 5 way on the flop.
The bluff ev of this hand depends a lot on our opponents making good lay downs like, some mediocre combo draws on the flop, or some flushes on later streets.
This becomes a lot worse if our opponents are random fish.
The straddle and subsequent calls make this bluff also less effective as there’s much less room to apply pressure vs the 1k stacks.
Considering all that it’s a marginal bluff at best and never a big mistake to just check/give up
Did you try some equity calcs for the turn?
My thinking on the turn:
I'm the PFR and a TAG, so I'm supposed to have AAxx, AKKx, or AKxx.
He's not scared of AKxx.
Fish have a lot of small-pair hands in their range that can flop sets.
I have the Ks to block the nut flush draw.
There aren't legit wraps on the board, just triple gutters (e.g. QJTx on this A84K board).
On the other hand, fish think a triple gutter is a wrap.
I ran it through a solver for what it's worth:
Flop is a check 5-way.
If you discount/ignore the CO short stack and make the flop 4-way, you could check or bet the flop.
As played, turn is a check (but solver checks 90% of its range on the turn, probably incorrectly).
As played, turn is a fold to the shove. Solver also folds AK44.
But solver assumes all players are thinking players.