Hi all,

25/25/50 utg straddle. Hero raises AKQT5ds a-high Q-high in sb to $200 and gets two callers $2.5k eff. We should have a tight image.

Flop: QT7cc. We don’t have clubs. We bet pot $625. Only btn pro calls.

Turn ($1875): 7s. We bet $475. He tank calls.

River ($2,750): Kc. We jam our last $1,200 or so.

Thanks,
DT

I'm not sure this line would occur to me in-game, but I think I like it

Yeah I figured we were repping a boat with our line and the only logical sizing was all in on the river. This can be a bluff candidate to keep us balanced (if that’s important in these games…). We have good blockers for it too and can have KK TT QQ Q7 etc. as the preflop raiser.

I dont like flop pot bet. Very dynamic board, the texture will shift too much and your hand isnt going to play well.

Turn bet is very creative, cant decide if i like it. I think i jam at this spr.

Think flop we can check especially without a J.

As played I do like your line, but I think larger bet on turn, yes we have a boat but we are charging draws also we really don’t want a call lol.

River yep story is told but dudes getting 6-1 or something now so fingers crossed imho.

You're hoping he will fold a flush?

Gotta check the flop 3way and it ain’t close.

For me, I think just check or pot turn. Think hero should have a lot of hands in range that really value fold equity on turn, i'm not really convinced repping the super nuts with small bets is a good line especially if it leaves you less than half pot on river.

Lines like this risk helping weaker opponent accidentally play perfectly.

It's a paired board and I triple barreled/jammed river. Yes.

But I mean is that what you specifically put him on when he tank-called the turn? I don't know if he is the type of player who would draw to a flush on a paired board.
Or do you think he could have a small full house, or even just a 7?

Well yes ...and ...spoiler...

that's exactly what happened. He had KQ963 63cc and made the crying call on the river. Said pot was too big and he was too many drinks in.

With all due respect I think you’re missing the bigger picture by focussing on wether opponent will fold the river or not and ignoring critique to your flop play.

With this SPR your hand has to give up on a: 9,8,6,Club and A/K are very iffy. That’s half the deck where we might have to c/f with one potbet left behind. That is something you generally want to avoid and usually checking is then the better line.

Why is this important for this river?

Because asking the forum wether this guy will fold the river or not is a total guessing game. But let’s say you bet a good range on the flop consisting of your hand but with clubs, sets, and then your hand with Ac blocker and a bdfd.

Then on the turn you would rip something like AAKQ with clubs, maybe QTAk with clubs because you have very high river playability. Bet small with fullhouses and the AKQT with the Ax blocker. Now opponent might still make an idiot call down but at least our strategy is still unbeatable.

But if we pot all AKQT without fd on the flop and barrel this turn we have way too many bluffs on this river. Now this random call is actually massively exploiting your strategy. Just because it’s accidental doesn’t mean you’re not losing money in these spots.

Start with a better framework that doesn’t get you into this spot too much.