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AJT9 flush draw AJT9 flush draw

06-08-2023 , 11:44 AM
This is an area where I struggle.

PLO $1/$2, 6-handed, online
Hero ($200) in CO with AsJsTc9d

Folds around to hero, hero raises to $7, button folds, SB folds, BB (loose aggressive type) calls.
$15 in pot, 2 players.
Flop comes 7s3s2c.
BB bets $15, hero calls.
$45 in pot.
Turn card Qd.
BB bets $45.
Hero?

Getting 2-to-1 to call the turn, but I figure I'm something <33% to win -- something like ~17% if up against a set and ~30% if up against KKxx or 2 pair. And if the flush card hits, I don't know that I get any action. Should I have raised the flop with this board, after villain leads out with pot-sized bet? I didn't like that.
AJT9 flush draw Quote
06-08-2023 , 12:11 PM
Your equity isn't huge on the flop. You just have a nut flush draw, a 1-gap backdoor straight draw, and probably backdoor two-pairs/trips. I imagine your fold equity being close to zero. And if he 3-jams, that really sucks for you. So I would just call his $15 on the flop.

Your equity sucks on the turn. You just have a nut flush draw. If you hit, it'll be hard to get paid. If the board pairs on the river, it'll be hard to rep a full house. The straight draw on the board is low, so it'll also be hard to rep a straight against a LAG. Just fold.

If you were $400 deep and the LAG was a total fish, I might call the turn. You might get paid big with flush over flush.
AJT9 flush draw Quote
06-08-2023 , 04:39 PM
Just fold turn , rest of hand played fine.
AJT9 flush draw Quote
06-08-2023 , 05:08 PM
Things to consider:

this is a low board, so sets will be less common than on a high board
he's led out for full pottwice, which isn't something people normally do when they have really strong hands, though of course they do do it sometimes
A,4,5,6 all fill straights on the river and it's plausible if you call the turn that you would be doing so with A4/A5 + nfd, or a 456-x type hand. So you might think about calling to bluff some of those cards. In fact that constitutes some of your equity in calling the flop. But it's thin, possibly too thin in this spot, but it can in some spots make up the difference between a turn call and a turn fold when they pot it like this.
AJT9 flush draw Quote
06-12-2023 , 11:34 AM
I don't think you can do much bluffing OTR as V is probably drawing to that range quite often. I'd assume V is not blasting with an over-pair. I'm in the 'not getting paid' if a Flush hits camp as well, so where's your value here with $22 invested?

Unfortunately with LAGs you just have to let them have their way .. until you don't. But when you choose to step in I think we need something better. GL
AJT9 flush draw Quote

      
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