Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live

06-03-2024 , 12:32 PM
Itís that simple. Iíve worked on mental game, learned to be ok with losing 3 buy ins and continuing, being aware and taking walks. And centering myself etc.

For 7 months now playing live for a living 1-2-5 to 1-2-5-10-20-40 I have literally lost every single $2500+ pot Iíve played except 1. I have chopped a few.

I have been taking breaks, working on all the mental game stuff and lowered my buy in, I have been break even until the last month despite this doing well with small pots and bluff, this last month has been a whole new level.

Iím playing in the best games ive ever played in against a super soft field and have not been able to win for months. Itís just go up a half dozen or so buy ins and lose a few giant pots and back to even.

Now after losing almost 10k in the last month and making the joke last night ďit only took 5 Buyins to win a small hand at showdownĒ only to get crushed again Iím at a loss.

What do you do when youíve done everything and the beatings just continue?

I need to add this isnít being outplayed or making bad decisions (some definitely happen, especially under this duress) but just cannot hit a draw or fade one in any kind of meaningful pot for over half a year now?

I donít have the money to be able to take a month or 2 off and the cards wonít be any different, I am finally ok with losing 4-5 buyins and still playing at least 80%+ optimally when the game is really good.

Iím literally at a loss for how to handle this any longer and due to illness itís literally the only job I can do and Iím a workaholic
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-03-2024 , 02:46 PM
Get staking or quit.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-03-2024 , 06:22 PM
I feel like most, including myself at times, far under estimate variance. This goes both ways for being on a hot streak (variance in your favor) to going on a death run (variance against you). Easy to just say focus on the EV and don't sweat the run but at the end of the day we're human and relieving all emotional responses isn't possible.

Agree with above, you could look at staking to relieve some of the financial stress.

You could also pass along hands one or more and see if you might be making more mistakes than previously thought. You're still probably running bad but could be losing less in spots or maybe have developed a bad habit or two(under bluffing correct spots, not calling enough etc).

Hopefully turns for you sooner than later bud. Not to be corny but it's like Galfond put very well, "there will be a time when you run far worse than you've ever thought possible" (not exact quote).
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-03-2024 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhenInDoubtShove
Itís that simple. Iíve worked on mental game, learned to be ok with losing 3 buy ins and continuing, being aware and taking walks. And centering myself etc.

For 7 months now playing live for a living 1-2-5 to 1-2-5-10-20-40 I have literally lost every single $2500+ pot Iíve played except 1. I have chopped a few.

I have been taking breaks, working on all the mental game stuff and lowered my buy in, I have been break even until the last month despite this doing well with small pots and bluff, this last month has been a whole new level.

Iím playing in the best games ive ever played in against a super soft field and have not been able to win for months. Itís just go up a half dozen or so buy ins and lose a few giant pots and back to even.

Now after losing almost 10k in the last month and making the joke last night ďit only took 5 Buyins to win a small hand at showdownĒ only to get crushed again Iím at a loss.

What do you do when youíve done everything and the beatings just continue?

I need to add this isnít being outplayed or making bad decisions (some definitely happen, especially under this duress) but just cannot hit a draw or fade one in any kind of meaningful pot for over half a year now?

I donít have the money to be able to take a month or 2 off and the cards wonít be any different, I am finally ok with losing 4-5 buyins and still playing at least 80%+ optimally when the game is really good.

Iím literally at a loss for how to handle this any longer and due to illness itís literally the only job I can do and Iím a workaholic

Post a hand or two and get honest feedback on your play.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-04-2024 , 09:50 AM
Yes .. posting will help a bit. I assume you have done 'lots' of study and reflection regarding at least some of these spots.

What was your experience level and results before you started this 'for a living' 7 month stretch?

Over-folding (or not folding enough), scared money, playing OOP too much, too wide (or too narrow) of both 3b/4b ranges, calling 3b range too wide, playing too long of a session .. there's so much more to PLO than NL when trying to pin down a root cause.

We could dive deep into the mental side of Poker being Plan A instead of Plan B in your life. But I think it's much easier (for us) to look at some hand history.

I do know this .. after some years of resisting for sure .. that it just doesn't work to 'play more' when running bad. There's only so much you can take mentally and you need to let things clear out and come back fresh.

Typically over the years if I'm running bad I just go into Super Nit mode for a few sessions .. really reign in a lot of the 'standard' PLO aggression for a bit and just sit back and watch the others.

It's just so difficult to get into great spots HU in PLO the way the games are being played 'everywhere'. I've adjusted my strategy in a lot of games to just being happy with taking down singles and doubles instead of piling in chips looking for homers, so to speak.

I 100% of the time tell Players that I want them to fold 'every time' .. even when holding the nuts! You never lose when you're the last one with a live hand and there's no Showdown. GL
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-04-2024 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
It's just so difficult to get into great spots HU in PLO the way the games are being played 'everywhere'. I've adjusted my strategy in a lot of games to just being happy with taking down singles and doubles instead of piling in chips looking for homers, so to speak.

I 100% of the time tell Players that I want them to fold 'every time' .. even when holding the nuts! You never lose when you're the last one with a live hand and there's no Showdown. GL
While I believe we'd rather people fold their equity more often than in NLHE it's not a big deal. If you're entering every session wondering "how much am i going to lose this time?" then not only do you need a break, you need a new game for awhile. Play a different stake, a different location, anything just to break your head out of the funk. You might find yourself approaching NLHE with a name frame of reference.

And regarding the kinds of pots you play, if you want to reduce variance just play smaller pots. Less 3betting, more flatting, and check back some flops even if you have top straight on a suited board. Keep your range wide and thereby their ranges wide and you wont find yourself in facing these huge river decisions for all your chips.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-05-2024 , 02:24 AM
We feel you. How many sessions and hours a month, and about how many hands in the 7 months long downswing??
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-08-2024 , 04:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
Yes .. posting will help a bit. I assume you have done 'lots' of study and reflection regarding at least some of these spots.

What was your experience level and results before you started this 'for a living' 7 month stretch?

Over-folding (or not folding enough), scared money, playing OOP too much, too wide (or too narrow) of both 3b/4b ranges, calling 3b range too wide, playing too long of a session .. there's so much more to PLO than NL when trying to pin down a root cause.

We could dive deep into the mental side of Poker being Plan A instead of Plan B in your life. But I think it's much easier (for us) to look at some hand history.

I do know this .. after some years of resisting for sure .. that it just doesn't work to 'play more' when running bad. There's only so much you can take mentally and you need to let things clear out and come back fresh.

Typically over the years if I'm running bad I just go into Super Nit mode for a few sessions .. really reign in a lot of the 'standard' PLO aggression for a bit and just sit back and watch the others.

It's just so difficult to get into great spots HU in PLO the way the games are being played 'everywhere'. I've adjusted my strategy in a lot of games to just being happy with taking down singles and doubles instead of piling in chips looking for homers, so to speak.

I 100% of the time tell Players that I want them to fold 'every time' .. even when holding the nuts! You never lose when you're the last one with a live hand and there's no Showdown. GL

For lack of better wording my bluffs are working out, Iím making some really solid plays, a ton of preflop and post flip discipline.

It just litera Has been a very long period of going up 20-80BB and than finding myself in a 70-30ish spot in a huge pot and losing for an very extended period of time. I have used this period to plug a ton of leaks, itís not being outplayed, itís literally just playing well to get into a large pot with a set or monster draw or get it in pre against a player with a wide range with a top percentage hand and lose that one.

Iíve been in extreme nit mode and exited it a couple times in desperation which didnít workÖ

For lack of better wording everyday I get ready in fear, shed it, come in and play well for 2-3 hours at a time and the beating continue

I have made a lot,of growth in my play, discipline and mental game but this is just getting ridiculous at this point.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-08-2024 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FellaGaga-52
We feel you. How many sessions and hours a month, and about how many hands in the 7 months long downswing??
Probably about 60-140 hours a month in 2-3 hour long sessions.

Fwiw this isnít getting outplayed, this is just getting outran in large pots which are unavoidable in live PLO (although Iíve lowered their frequency)

I know what getting outplayed isÖ this is just a rough run of equity distribution over a 10-15 thousand hands
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-08-2024 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by javi
While I believe we'd rather people fold their equity more often than in NLHE it's not a big deal. If you're entering every session wondering "how much am i going to lose this time?" then not only do you need a break, you need a new game for awhile. Play a different stake, a different location, anything just to break your head out of the funk. You might find yourself approaching NLHE with a name frame of reference.

And regarding the kinds of pots you play, if you want to reduce variance just play smaller pots. Less 3betting, more flatting, and check back some flops even if you have top straight on a suited board. Keep your range wide and thereby their ranges wide and you wont find yourself in facing these huge river decisions for all your chips.
Iíve been doing this and moved to Texas in the last couple months. I actually a pretty low variance style of PLO but Iím in Texas. Canít agree more but went from 1000-1500 buyins to 300-500, netted it up super hard and have toned down aggression.

I donít go in wondering how much Iíll lose but I start each day tilted and in fear, do my ritual, suck it up and mentally get ready, and until it happens the second time Iím ok, itís just getting silly at this point of how long it can go on.

Iíve never been this happy with my play or mental game honestly. I Meditate, do discipline, play short sessions 1-3x a day, itís just getting to a point of I think anyone else would quit honestly.

Iím outplaying people, outmaneuvering, fading a lot and I just canít win the big pots as a coin flip with dead money or as a 70%+ favorite for however longer it takes until it turns around.

Itís been a great period of time for growth, but a very brutal one at the same time
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-08-2024 , 04:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
Yes .. posting will help a bit. I assume you have done 'lots' of study and reflection regarding at least some of these spots.

What was your experience level and results before you started this 'for a living' 7 month stretch?

Over-folding (or not folding enough), scared money, playing OOP too much, too wide (or too narrow) of both 3b/4b ranges, calling 3b range too wide, playing too long of a session .. there's so much more to PLO than NL when trying to pin down a root cause.

We could dive deep into the mental side of Poker being Plan A instead of Plan B in your life. But I think it's much easier (for us) to look at some hand history.

I do know this .. after some years of resisting for sure .. that it just doesn't work to 'play more' when running bad. There's only so much you can take mentally and you need to let things clear out and come back fresh.

Typically over the years if I'm running bad I just go into Super Nit mode for a few sessions .. really reign in a lot of the 'standard' PLO aggression for a bit and just sit back and watch the others.

It's just so difficult to get into great spots HU in PLO the way the games are being played 'everywhere'. I've adjusted my strategy in a lot of games to just being happy with taking down singles and doubles instead of piling in chips looking for homers, so to speak.

I 100% of the time tell Players that I want them to fold 'every time' .. even when holding the nuts! You never lose when you're the last one with a live hand and there's no Showdown. GL
Fwiw I play the overwhelming majority of hands in position, fold to 3 bets more than most, play 2-3 hour long sessions and work massively on mental game.

Previously I played for 4 years very profitably, crushed online at $2-4 and HU 1-2 to 3-6, and bought land which ate my bankroll after making 6 figures.

So far Iíve taken multiple weeks off, moved to another state, lowered buyins, nitted it up,super hard, and drastically adjusted strategy

On the plus side itís a massive growth moment or months, Iíve made some serious adaptations, and my equity is incredible.

I do feel Iíve ran above EV in small pots probably as Iíve been break evenish over the last 7 months while going up 4-6 buyins with small wins to lose every time I match a fishís large stack or run it up and get crushed.

I have grown a ton and once this ends my profitability will be much higher than it was, but surviving this run is getting harder and harder as the beatings just donít stop. Itís gettting ridiculous at this point.

For lack of better wording I learned to play in a murder lineup with a few fish where 3 players went on to make top 150 runs in the Mai event and one of my old buddies was playing next to Chidwick last time I looked him up,onlineÖ itís not being outplayed, itís just surviving a extended series of tough equity distribution
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-08-2024 , 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaWhale69
Post a hand or two and get honest feedback on your play.
Bombpot

AJ94 rainbow
Flops JJ3 J96 lose to QQ104 on both boards for 2k ish

AQQJ a high hearts vs AK89 hh dd lose $800 peeflop against a fish who overvalues hands 70/30

9776 ss lose vs AQxx rainbow on a AQ7 boards against fish Iím targeting getting it on the flop last night

These are from the past 2 sessions; itís not playing bad; itís running horribly whenever large amounts of money go in for over 6 months nowÖ

My bluffs get through. I crush in small pots.

I donít play tournaments at all just to eliminate as much variance as possible as I know this is possible.

Everyday I walk my dog: do my discipline, study, meditate and either win 1/2-1.5 buyins or lose several making good decisions.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-08-2024 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhenInDoubtShove
Bombpot

AJ94 rainbow
Flops JJ3 J96 lose to QQ104 on both boards for 2k ish

AQQJ a high hearts vs AK89 hh dd lose $800 peeflop against a fish who overvalues hands 70/30

9776 ss lose vs AQxx rainbow on a AQ7 boards against fish Iím targeting getting it on the flop last night

These are from the past 2 sessions; itís not playing bad; itís running horribly whenever large amounts of money go in for over 6 months nowÖ

My bluffs get through. I crush in small pots.

I donít play tournaments at all just to eliminate as much variance as possible as I know this is possible.

Everyday I walk my dog: do my discipline, study, meditate and either win 1/2-1.5 buyins or lose several making good decisions.
I know I skipped the play by play, just frustrated at the idea of writing it out. These hands were played textbookishly where thereís just nothing you can do besides give up equity which is kind of the whole point of playing poker.

For lack of better wording bombpot I pot, villian repots, I respond with ďdude weíre chopping, you donít wanna wack up their moneyĒ he responds with ďI potted it because o donít have ****, donít complain and be thankful for the callĒ and Binks both boards.

The other 2 hands AQQJ I open pot 15, 3 calls, Villain repots it to $105 who is drunk and has done so with very poor hands; I repot to 350ish he jams I callÖ 70/30 spot

9776 limp pot 6 ways, I bet 3/4 pot, villian repots, I repor, he jams and shows AQ, Q on turn.

I donít think Iím doing anything besides capitalizing on equity against the weaker players I want to target specifically.

Iím not playing OOP against strong players, just bum hunting successfully and getting crushed by variance
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-09-2024 , 01:22 AM
You had 1500 buyins for 1-2-5?

So $750,000?

Confused.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-09-2024 , 04:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nootaboos
You had 1500 buyins for 1-2-5?

So $750,000?

Confused.
I apologize. I was very demoralized writing ,my responses.

I used to buy in for $1000-1500 typically. Now Iím buying in for $300-500 mostly.

Iím still matching drunk idiots for up to 2k when the game is right, I donít expect to lose every potÖ I just am shocked it still hasnít happened yet.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-09-2024 , 04:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhenInDoubtShove
I’ve been doing this and moved to Texas in the last couple months. I actually a pretty low variance style of PLO but I’m in Texas. Can’t agree more but went from 1000-1500 buyins to 300-500, netted it up super hard and have toned down aggression.

I don’t go in wondering how much I’ll lose but I start each day tilted and in fear, do my ritual, suck it up and mentally get ready, and until it happens the second time I’m ok, it’s just getting silly at this point of how long it can go on.

I’ve never been this happy with my play or mental game honestly. I Meditate, do discipline, play short sessions 1-3x a day, it’s just getting to a point of I think anyone else would quit honestly.

I’m outplaying people, outmaneuvering, fading a lot and I just can’t win the big pots as a coin flip with dead money or as a 70%+ favorite for however longer it takes until it turns around.

It’s been a great period of time for growth, but a very brutal one at the same time
I meant it. I feel you. I played it for over 40 years, and for the first 35 nothing obscene happened unless you count the upside of it. The worst severe downturn was about 6 weeks long, 18 or so sessions, long sessions then of 8 hours plus. And nothing else even close to that. One streak of 8 straight. Then came a streak that I would swear defies randomness in that it lasted over 800 sessions, but very part time play so the mind altering time span of the death run was over 8 years. Obscenity. All wraps were bordering on 0%, all nut flush draws bordering on 0%, opponents same hands pushing 100%. I never was a run twice. One night I did as an experiment and lost 35-of-36.

That wasn't near enough for this streak. The 1-outer beats were running at around 60%, 19 out of 33 in one stretch, and as I was quoting that very stat one night it happened again. I had unsuited aces and hadn't raised, flop was A-2-2, and a lonely deuce took my stack. Again. On top of this, there was the super weird experience of, every once in a while here or there in a session, somebody would call out verbally the card they needed. This hit 100% out of some dozens of trials.

I started thinking what was the worst possible card to hit on the turn during all hands. Like black magic, it hit so regularly it was shocking when it didn't. It all seemed supernatural. That's when I realized more fully that the long run is way, way north of 100K-ish hands. Way more. Into the millions.

I did the same as you, maybe a mistake, in that I started lowering buy-ins, then again. Turned out not to be a mistake as it just marched on. You can get in veins of things in life.

All this followed a sun run year of epic proportions, sure enough. And maybe 5 years of something near sun run. It actually began to inform my views on metaphysics, as I was writing on the subject at the time. And a deck of cards, my poker playing brethren and sisters, IS a part of reality. It is not exempt, it is not actually random in its distribution ... but that is only a shortcut handicapping system of expectation with so many unknown factors.

Something knows those factors. An agenda is being delivered. That's where I ended up in regard to it all.

Back to your experience. I believe it hands down and can see utterly no reason not to. In fact, in retrospect, after my streak I remember hearing and seeing runs of other players that were described in such a way as to seem impossible. I get it, you are getting in great spots, outplaying people, maneuvering like a boss ... and the deck is utterly mocking you, your efforts, and the expectation of the results.

It's a thing. There's nothing more to be said other than, "Yup. It's a thing. It's in the cards. It's in the universe. It's a thing."

Last edited by FellaGaga-52; 06-09-2024 at 04:48 AM.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-10-2024 , 01:55 AM
PLO is not my game but honestly reading your first 3 hands sounds like major punts. Aipf with AQQJ? Getting scooped with trips and a crappy 2 pair in a BP? None of this sounds like textbook runbad at all, at least not in my opinion.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-10-2024 , 03:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by javi
PLO is not my game but honestly reading your first 3 hands sounds like major punts. Aipf with AQQJ? Getting scooped with trips and a crappy 2 pair in a BP? None of this sounds like textbook runbad at all, at least not in my opinion.
True, PLO is not your game.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-10-2024 , 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
True, PLO is not your game.
Someone write the date down, Amok and I agree on something.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-10-2024 , 05:57 PM
I hate the truth that some poker player is running worse than every other player at that time, and it could be you.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-10-2024 , 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
True, PLO is not your game.
I see that you have made an effort to inform me that you agree with my self-aware lack of experience playing PLO. I will take this gesture to reinforce the fact that I am not a PLO player. Thank you for your service.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-11-2024 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuma
I hate the truth that some poker player is running worse than every other player at that time, and it could be you.
Its always a possibility.

Many years ago i was in a spin stable and had one of the best cEVs. I shot higher levels many times and never managed to stay there long, im talking 10+ shots.

Meanwhile i watch worse players printing money, it happens.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-11-2024 , 05:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nootaboos
Someone write the date down, Amok and I agree on something.
you learn

Quote:
Originally Posted by javi
I see that you have made an effort to inform me that you agree with my self-aware lack of experience playing PLO. I will take this gesture to reinforce the fact that I am not a PLO player. Thank you for your service.
Well, consider not posting your noob opinions if you need to get defensive after you are put back in your place.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-11-2024 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
Well, consider not posting your noob opinions if you need to get defensive after you are put back in your place.
I will fight you
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote
06-11-2024 , 03:50 PM
Are you a decent hold em player? Seems like that'd be a viable option to help lower the variance. Maybe l just changing things to help you get out of your funk would be useful too.
Advice for dealing with 7 months of run bad live Quote

      
m