I stick by raising is correct. Somebody run the numbers pf odds sb has 9999, sf, vs 1010 alone not even including a9 or 910 and I bet it's still justified..

You forgot to weight how rarely tens full should be potting river.

For real I guess I could be wrong but isn't it a big gap between 1010 to 99 here? I think a9 and 109 can be included to but what are the odds or how would I figure out how much more likely 1010 here statistically than 99?

There are 3 combos of TT and 1 combo of 99. There are also 3 combos of straight flushes.

Yes but the odds someone hits a set of 10s vs straightflush vs 99.. 1010 raise here pot here imo didn't see last reply.. you don't think 1010 raises here that often? I think your wrong there and that's the point but I agree to disagree 8)

I still feel like a fish would bet the worst full houses. In my games I still see them go all in on the river with a straight or flush at times after the board pairs on the turn. Fish turn their showdown value hands into bluffs for no reason at times.

They for sure also still bet bottom boats and call raises with them.

If he’s willing to pot TT on the river shouldn’t we be worried he’s willing to bet/3b river and push us off aces? That would be a disaster.

No he's much more likely to pot 1010 the repop it if raised. It's just the majority of the time your regular competent plo player most of the time will pot 1010 here than call.. anything else that happens is outside from the norm

this is correct. nothing else needs to be said unless OP has a very specific read on the SB. and if he did, this thread probably wouldn't exist.

He does. I can't believe anyone is thinking about raising the river:

Villain sees a lot of flops and calls a lot of bets, but he rarely gets out of line when he bets or raises. When he pots out of position, he's been showing the nuts every time. I had a sense that he was incredibly strong when he bet out.

I think this was glossed over .. and perhaps it's supposed to be and it's a leak for me .. but why wouldn't we c-bet this Flop holding the Ace of flush? Certainly table dependent, but why not try to just take it down right now? Bloating? Have to b/f? We block a T also, so the sets are cut down. What we do on the Turn will depend on who sticks around and our position on them.

I'm much more apt to check Turn once we pick up 'value' equity that we don't want to be blown off from.

I'm discounting the Str-Flush since whomever holds that will have wanted to get value on the Turn.

As in NL, when someone 'wakes up' OTR after a passive Flop and Turn they usually have value, not polar/medium .. so I'm thinking that I would lean towards a River flat here even though I'm discounting SF with Player as described. Sure it may look Nitty, but with the additional 3 SF combos on top of the 99 I could wave it off to the table as 'no one is calling anyway' or 'I wanted to see his cards'. GL

Pretty sure this is just a river call as played.

I get we are greedy for fish money, but we Insta fold to any jam and fish is often Insta folding to our raise so it’s kind of straight forward tbh.

Idk, I still think most times it's 10s or 9a... and most player types Def. Call most of the time with those hands.