Hi all,

LAG opens MP, call, hero otb 3! AAT86ds (A-high hearts, T-high spades, Ad), they both call. $1,000 eff. We had a little banter with the LAG earlier about how he's 3! me twice IP now. Since then I changed seats to his left (mainly to be able to charge my phone) and he commented now I can 3! him lol.

Flop ($190): Td-7d-5h. Checks to hero who bets $110, LAG c/r pot, folds to hero. LAG is good at knowing equities so he probably had a hand that is ahead right now. Tbh, I was a little surprised to get c/r holding top pair and the nut flush blocker and the oesd since I block so much. Can we stack off here? We also have back door hearts. Say he has a set, we are in meh shape, if he has diamonds too even worse. If he has naked two pair we're in much better shape though. I think he could have any of these hands. I'd estimate we have 35-40%.

Thanks,
DT

Why can't he have a hand like J98xxdd or 986xxdd? You're in pretty bad shape vs either of those. Just because you're blocking the nut flush draw doesn't mean he can't have lower diamonds in his hand. You block top pair (yes he can have top two here, but is he x/r with a dry two pair with no draws/redraws?) so wouldn't be surprised if he had bottom or middle set here as well (9877x, 5589x, etc).

I think you're overvaluing your open ender here. It's the second worst open ender on this board (54 is worse) and your open ender goes down in value with the flush draw on board, even if you are blocking the nut flush draw.

I thought we'd have good visibility on a lot of turns which is why I bet, also thought a c/r was less likely give we block so much. Maybe I should have checked?

IDK, don't feel too comfortable stacking off for something like 150 blinds on this flop with this hand and we are way too shallow to just call his raise and see a turn card.

I think you have to fold now - I bet your equity is sub 30% here. I would check this flop back.

You're really only blocking TTxxx, other 86xxx open enders, and the nut flush draw. Again, just because you have the Ad doesn't mean he can't have a lower flush draw.

You are overvaluing your open ender. It's not that good on this board because of the flush draw out there and because he can have you dominated with a better straight draw.

Besides a non-diamond 4, an ace, or a T, what turn cards are you hoping for? A non-diamond 9 makes a better straight for J8. Even a T on the turn has you drawing to a 9-outer to fill up if he has middle or bottom set on this flop.

Just check the flop behind.