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AAKK scary board AAKK scary board

08-07-2021 , 04:29 AM
Do we go for it here? Think villains 3bet range is pretty wide.

PokerStars - $0.25 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 127.72 BB
BB: 207.52 BB
UTG: 122.68 BB
CO: 183.2 BB
Hero (BTN): 98.28 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A A K

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB raises to 8.4 BB, Hero raises to 25.6 BB, BB calls 17.2 BB

Flop: (51.6 BB, 2 players) 9 8 Q
BB checks, Hero ?
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 07:27 AM
I vote check, this is a pretty awful flop.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 09:05 AM
So we're about 42% vs top 15%, and interestingly enough on turns that blank out our equity doesn't change all that much. I think we check and begrudgingly get it in if he pots - if he checks we're basically check folding diamond turns/straight turns.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 09:51 AM
I think you're in big trouble on this flop.

Even with the BB having a wide 3-bet stat, what do you really have? You don't hold immediate blockers, you're not blocking any middle cards and even on the outside chance that BB had the low end with something like A567, it still not a great spot for you. You're a dog to A567. I don't see a universe where the BB gets so much in pre with A234. If he had 88xx, 99xx or 89xx you're a big dog too.

With the BB betting pre like he did, in addition to the fact that you have AAKK, my guess is that he's hammered this flop with a minimum two pair and probably a draw - if he didn't flop the straight already. Assuming that he's drawing to anything, straight or flush, it's still dicey. If he was betting a QQ combo, he's already got a set and you're behind. I guess you can hope for a backdoor club flush or that maybe you go runner runner to a high boat.

I can't see how this goes check / check on the turn and river, in addition to the fact that you've got less than a pot sized bet left. it's all going in in one way or another anyway, so you might as well jam the flop.

Last edited by anon1; 08-07-2021 at 10:02 AM.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 12:00 PM
also how wide is wide? wide like 10 to 15% is bad news. wide like 50% is good news. not only do we not have any blocks, we are extensively unblocking villain's smash the flop range. and while villain should be betting this flop at a high frequency imo, most opponents are still just going to auto check to the three bettor.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 12:03 PM
board: Qd8d9d

Hand Equity Wins Ties

AcKcAsKd 30.60% 172,304 22,545

15%....... 69.40% 405,151 22,545
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 01:44 PM
Ok thanks. for the analysis

Villain was the VPIP 80, PFR 40%, 3bet 12.5% type of player.

I bet, Villain shoved, call and villain showed J 26 8

Turn A , river brick villain wins

Was 36% vs this specific hand.

So given his hand his range was about 100% of hands. Which is not too uncommon in a btn vs blind situation. Also we have all the high cards so he can not have a top range.

Then vs random hand are we still good with betting this flop?
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 02:29 PM
Villain is a maniac with those stats. He's playing FAR too many hands and with a 40% 3-bet stat like 12.5% against a solid hand like yours and with an SPR under 1, definitely pot.

Here's ProPokerTools:

board: qd8d9c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
asackckd 42.75% 251,962 9,024
35% 57.25% 339,014 9,024
--------------------------------------------------------
board: qd8d9c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
asackckd 41.86% 244,117 14,144
25% 58.14% 341,739 14,144
--------------------------------------------------------

Gamble already posted the numbers for your hand vs. a top 15% but unless I screwed something up, I see this in output:

board: qd8d9c

Hand Equity Wins Ties
asackckd 39.97% 225,773 28,149
15% 60.03% 346,078 28,149

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Compare those numbers to this:

SPR routinely used numbers:

At SPR 1 = You need 33% equity to stack off profitably

At SPR 0.5 = You need 25% equity to stack off profitably

At SPR 4 = You need 44% equity to stack off profitably

Against a more "reasonable" player or tight reg, I'm definitely not happy getting it in but you have the required equity to do so. As unlikely as it may seem, you might even have some fold equity there. On the other hand, you could always fold and wait for better spots in the future too. It all comes down to you and how you want to move forward with it.

------

One thing I will say about this villain is that even though it'll be high variance, this is exactly the type of player that you want to play against. As long as you're playing solid hands and stats - like maybe 28/17/4 - it's only a matter of time before he hands his money over to you.

FWIW, PLO Trainer shows J2s68 as 100% fold with a -1 EV/BB against a button steal. Against a random BB 3-bet and the BTN holding AcKcAsKd, BTN is 100% raise / all in with a 12.95 EV/BB.

To end, I'll reiterate that I'm a rank noob still playing microstakes, so take what I say with a grain of salt. Hopefully, some more experienced or high stakes players will chime in here.

Last edited by anon1; 08-07-2021 at 02:46 PM.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 03:47 PM
oh my bad I did Qd9d8d
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 03:48 PM
what does PLO trainer think of the flop spot?
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anon1
Villain is a maniac with those stats. He's playing FAR too many hands and with a 40% 3-bet stat like 12.5% against a solid hand like yours and with an SPR under 1, definitely pot.

Here's ProPokerTools:

board: qd8d9c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
asackckd 42.75% 251,962 9,024
35% 57.25% 339,014 9,024
--------------------------------------------------------
board: qd8d9c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
asackckd 41.86% 244,117 14,144
25% 58.14% 341,739 14,144
--------------------------------------------------------

Gamble already posted the numbers for your hand vs. a top 15% but unless I screwed something up, I see this in output:

board: qd8d9c

Hand Equity Wins Ties
asackckd 39.97% 225,773 28,149
15% 60.03% 346,078 28,149

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Compare those numbers to this:

SPR routinely used numbers:

At SPR 1 = You need 33% equity to stack off profitably

At SPR 0.5 = You need 25% equity to stack off profitably

At SPR 4 = You need 44% equity to stack off profitably

Against a more "reasonable" player or tight reg, I'm definitely not happy getting it in but you have the required equity to do so. As unlikely as it may seem, you might even have some fold equity there. On the other hand, you could always fold and wait for better spots in the future too. It all comes down to you and how you want to move forward with it.

------

One thing I will say about this villain is that even though it'll be high variance, this is exactly the type of player that you want to play against. As long as you're playing solid hands and stats - like maybe 28/17/4 - it's only a matter of time before he hands his money over to you.

FWIW, PLO Trainer shows J2s68 as 100% fold with a -1 EV/BB against a button steal. Against a random BB 3-bet and the BTN holding AcKcAsKd, BTN is 100% raise / all in with a 12.95 EV/BB.

To end, I'll reiterate that I'm a rank noob still playing microstakes, so take what I say with a grain of salt. Hopefully, some more experienced or high stakes players will chime in here.
Thanks for the analysis.

If our equity is below 50 we are better off checking I think? Assuming that villain won't fold any hand that has more than 50% equity on us.

So it was better to check the flop after all.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-07-2021 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
what does PLO trainer think of the flop spot?
When I load the Q98 flop and go to the button, for some reason, it doesn't let me load AAKK. I don't know if maybe the sim isn't run for it or what, however, it does have a lot of other AA hands, like like AAK3 and AKK4, etc. So, when I used AAKx, of every AAxx or AAKx that is available, it is a 100% check. Any AAJx hand it displayed is also a 100% check, as is AAQ (AAQ9 not displayed) and AA9x and AA8x. I don't know if I'm doing something wrong in setting up the solution, so maybe someone more experienced with the program or Monker could run it but seeing as everything else I mentioned is 100% check, yes, OP / Gamble, I believe that 100% check is the desired GTO flop action as well.

Against a tighter opponent BB check, a pot from you might have fold equity but then again, I'd assume a tighter player wouldn't be 3-Betting and calling a 4-bet with J268. Against this particular villain, apparently, there wasn't anything he was folding too. Still, I'm stunned that the villain with go so far pre and I'd be hard pressed to believe that this particular villain is a winning player over a large sample of hands.

As far as checking any hand with under 50% equity in general, I guess you'll have to decide that. Some might consider that action too passive but you can't put too much value into my opinion. My knowledge and experience barely qualifies me to be a player.

Thanks for posting the hand though, because I learned something from it too.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-09-2021 , 09:28 AM
I sort of think we should just pot this flop for protection/playing turns/rivers are going to be extremely tough. We're lost on any turn card that isn't a blank, and rather make him pay with his 1 pair hands.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-10-2021 , 11:34 AM
It seems kinda close but with under 40% against a decent range think we were better of checking this flop.

Don't see villain folding any hands that have +50% equity against us in this situation
AAKK scary board Quote
08-11-2021 , 04:59 PM
What about this hand? Are we good enough to get our money in?
Villains are 32/22/7 and 29/4/4

PokerStars - $0.05 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 283.2 BB
CO: 112.6 BB
BTN: 316.2 BB
Hero (SB): 90 BB
BB: 87.4 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7 A A 8

UTG raises to 3.4 BB, CO calls 3.4 BB, fold, Hero raises to 13 BB, fold, UTG calls 9.6 BB, CO calls 9.6 BB

Flop: (40 BB, 3 players) 8 9 3
Hero ?
AAKK scary board Quote
08-12-2021 , 03:39 AM
pot it
AAKK scary board Quote
08-12-2021 , 07:11 AM
Thanks.

Betted and ended up being 42% against pair + straight draw but still think it is ok to put our money in here.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-12-2021 , 05:01 PM
Lose some, win some, lol

PokerStars - $0.10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 40.9 BB
Hero (BB): 113.8 BB
UTG: 152.4 BB
CO: 234.2 BB
BTN: 352.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T 9 5 3

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, UTG raises to 30.5 BB, Hero calls 20.5 BB

Flop: (61.5 BB, 2 players) 7 8 5
Hero bets 58.9 BB, UTG raises to 117.8 BB, Hero calls 24.4 BB and is all-in

Turn: (228.1 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (228.1 BB, 2 players) K

Hero shows T 9 5 3 (Two Pair, Nines and Fives)
(Pre 39%, Flop 60%, Turn 80%)
UTG shows 3 A Q A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 61%, Flop 40%, Turn 20%)
Hero wins 218.4 BB
AAKK scary board Quote
08-13-2021 , 12:05 AM
ahh the old tripple gapper single gapper double suited
AAKK scary board Quote
08-13-2021 , 04:12 AM
39% vs AA not bad
AAKK scary board Quote
08-22-2021 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by derjan
39% vs AA not bad
but 3-betting that hand vs UTG is.
AAKK scary board Quote
08-23-2021 , 03:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MastaAces
but 3-betting that hand vs UTG is.
You have to gamble to win as Sam Farha used to say.

Situations like this are exactly what you want when playing these types of hands
AAKK scary board Quote
08-23-2021 , 04:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by derjan
You have to gamble to win as Sam Farha used to say.

Situations like this are exactly what you want when playing these types of hands
well, yes. obviously you want to flop 60% equity with a SPR less than 1.5 when calling a 4-bet with a pretty terrible hand. problem is it won't happen often and you're losing a lot of money long-term playing the hand the way you did.

you're not serious though, are you?
AAKK scary board Quote
08-23-2021 , 05:03 AM
39% of the time it works 100% of the time
AAKK scary board Quote
08-23-2021 , 05:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MastaAces
well, yes. obviously you want to flop 60% equity with a SPR less than 1.5 when calling a 4-bet with a pretty terrible hand. problem is it won't happen often and you're losing a lot of money long-term playing the hand the way you did.

you're not serious though, are you?
I am.

Btw calling the 4 bet is mandatory. 39% vs AA with 33% to call is a clear +EV situation. And one of our flushes and one of our pairs are even dominated so we are not in best case scenario here.

You can argue about 3betting pre vs a strong range but not about calling the 4bet.
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