Villian is a huge fish. VPIP 80 and raises 48% of the time and 3bets 30%.




UTG: 209.92 BB
CO: 205.68 BB
BTN: 135.8 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 184.68 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A 8 K

fold, CO raises to 3.4 BB, BTN calls 3.4 BB, Hero raises to 14.6 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 11.2 BB

Flop: (33.6 BB, 2 players) 9 5 9
Hero bets 8.4 BB, BTN raises to 58.8 BB


GTO says to get it all in here but I don't quite understand why that would be the case here. I feel like they aren't going to be bluffing here often. Additionally I'm blocking straight draws with my 8. I doubt they are raise/calling overpairs here.

Thoughts?

In this exact case I'm not sure why you would bet out on the Flop (and for a VERY small amount) knowing that you are getting raised half the time. I think V tendency to raise would actually be much higher with Hero betting so small .. so that makes it harder to put V on a 9x here.

I don't really consider one out a 'blocker', but that's just me.

What does V do when checked to? I assume there's a fair amount of betting.
I would probably pot control and see if I can turn a heart here.
Obv convention suggests with two 9s on the Board that it's less likely that V has a 9 .. so it's OK to fire.

The issue is don't bet unless you know what you're going to do if it comes back on you. Unfortunately against 'this' V you should lean more towards GII at 100bb or less. You've put in about 25% of your stack .. it's super exploitable if you fold here on this Board IMO.

You are sort of handcuffed since if you do get x/potted you're looking at 40+% of your stack being in the middle.

TBH I might not 'pot' PF, maybe 9-10bb knowing that I'm more likely to GII against this V anyway .. which means less of a commitment if we do get cold feet OTF. GL

Against this player type I’m just going with it.

What does he do with KK/QQ/JJ? You need him to raise/GII with these hands to make up for 9x/55 - him being a huge fish is a plus, but how he's a big fish is what matters.

I think gto raise sizing would be smaller than pot. I never see donks potraisebluffing these textures.

does GTO say we are folding any AA? I would assume this is a close spot and we are mixing folding and getting it in with AA depending on side cards

Villain is supposed to be a huge fish so GTO would not be the strategy to follow. I think it's just a spot where OP needs to know how hes a big fish as to get this in it's very important info. On a side note it is interesting if we were villain to explore raising on these textures - if we're villain and he leads 8.4 bb we can raise to 25bb or so and not have to win that often to print money.

I don't think GTO is getting it in here and that statement is just absolutely false.

GTO likes to bet this flop with basically full range at 1/3 size though, but that assumes villain isn't a maniac.

I feel like this is a clear spot to check/call and probably be willing to just go to showdown in a somewhat bloated pot but allowing him to bluf it off.

This is why we often can't fold AA after getting raised - you can't let someone "print" money in these spots.

One thing that kind of matters here is the stakes and how V sees you, especially since this is your thinking: I doubt they are raise/calling overpairs here.

If he puts you on AA, he can re-raise you on the flop w/ all sorts of hands -- overpairs, straight draws, nothing.

For 100bb vs. this player assuming this isn't pro level and he doesn't think you are a calling station, I'm going for it. I would have checked the flop, though, and let him fire away, but your small lead got the same result.

It's pretty reasonable to think GTO is stacking off on most paired, disconnected boards with spr < 3 with AA since solver villains can show up with worse made hands and bluffs.

Or at least if not on all boards, it will mix in a way where it often does.

Haven't run a sim for this spot or anytbing though.

OP is playing a huge fish - you want to play highly exploitative vs the described opponent so I disagree.

I think I don't understand what you were originally trying to say to begin with.

Pretty sure vs mega donk you must start with check call and decide about value betting river after turn plays out.

Regarding the GII comments, anyone that’s played for than 8 hands of PLO will tel you that if the money goes in here moby has a 9.

Spelling and grammar is flawless obv. Don’t walk and type.