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Old 08-01-2021, 02:32 AM   #1
DumbosTrunk
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AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

Hi all,

UTG open and a call, hero co $225 AAK54dd (suited K only), both call. $900 eff. after the 3!.

Flop ($695): 369r with one diamond. Second caller donks pot. We have bdfd AA and so-so oesd. Stack off? V bought in max with $30k in box waiting for big hold em game.

Thanks,
DT

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 08-01-2021 at 02:55 AM.
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Old 08-01-2021, 10:24 AM   #2
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

Just to be clear you have 900 behind? Little confused if that was total effective or what was left
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Old 08-01-2021, 01:09 PM   #3
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

you fold all day every day. What do you do for a living that you can play 30k buy-in PLO? Once he pots, you depart. Unless he has KK(and only bad players here would. Really bad.), and that backdoor flush stuff sounds like fish talk. Drawing to the pair board against most recs is stupid. The pot is no way good. You lost right? By a lot? Or sucked out a lot? I'm going off the action here. If it's HU and you fold for starting stacks-ish, you're bad. You should just call and if he gets there, he woulda all in anyways. HU.

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Old 08-01-2021, 03:43 PM   #4
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

SPR is 1.3 and you have aces+oesd? This is a super-clear get in
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Old 08-01-2021, 04:29 PM   #5
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
Just to be clear you have 900 behind? Little confused if that was total effective or what was left
Yep, $900 behind after the 3! and Vs cover.
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Old 08-01-2021, 04:33 PM   #6
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

Also should we flat this combo pre given no A-high suits? I sense that on the flop it's really a gamble to GII and it's safer just to fold. Against value+draw ranges we're probably close to BE-territory EV-wise, plus or minus a percent or two.

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Old 08-01-2021, 05:37 PM   #7
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

if you're folding this flop you should've never 3-bet with these stacks to begin with

he rarely has a set here as his line should be x-raise with strongest part of his range bc he's not expecting you to check flop a lot this shallow and he gets to trap UTG as well
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Old 08-02-2021, 01:47 AM   #8
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

Not that my opinion matters much but if you've got an overpair, and open ender and a king high BDFD, how can you fold at 1.3? If you shove, is there no fold equity?

UTG could have KK but it's less likely, since you've got a K blocker. A set of KK from UTG seems further unlikely, since he checked the flop. If the other caller has A457, you have future blockers to that and even if so, a potential split if the low end straight completes. You're ahead against QQ and JJ and If you're up against a set, you have the open ender and you have the potential (albeit small) to spike an ace for a higher set. The BDFD 2nd nut adds equity too.

Last edited by anon1; 08-02-2021 at 01:56 AM.
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Old 08-02-2021, 03:59 AM   #9
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

I guess I wanna know what people think about neutral or marginally +EV spots in general. When we can wait for much higher-EV spots why gamble in these?
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:55 AM   #10
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I guess I wanna know what people think about neutral or marginally +EV spots in general. When we can wait for much higher-EV spots why gamble in these?

I ran the numbers and you are a flip against all sets, low wraps, 2 pair with strong low draws and the like. Given the dead money and the flip it seems a trivial ship.

Swingy game
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Old 08-02-2021, 02:53 PM   #11
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
I ran the numbers and you are a flip against all sets, low wraps, 2 pair with strong low draws and the like. Given the dead money and the flip it seems a trivial ship.

Swingy game
This is hi only, not hi lo. I ran some equities and I have between 30-36% depending on his exact holding.
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Old 08-02-2021, 04:19 PM   #12
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

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This is hi only, not hi lo. I ran some equities and I have between 30-36% depending on his exact holding.

Oops sorry
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Old 08-04-2021, 06:45 PM   #13
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I guess I wanna know what people think about neutral or marginally +EV spots in general. When we can wait for much higher-EV spots why gamble in these?
I think you need a really strong read for this to be only marginally +EV. Villain can jam a ton of hands where you are ahead.
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Old 08-04-2021, 06:57 PM   #14
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
This is hi only, not hi lo. I ran some equities and I have between 30-36% depending on his exact holding.
I can't imagine how narrow of a range you must be giving him to have come up with this.
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Old 08-06-2021, 11:30 PM   #15
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

Well I discounted smaller overpairs and included wraps, pair plus draw, two pair, and sets.
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Old 08-07-2021, 02:35 AM   #16
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I guess I wanna know what people think about neutral or marginally +EV spots in general. When we can wait for much higher-EV spots why gamble in these?
Because it's not a tournament
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Old 08-07-2021, 10:45 PM   #17
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

3-6-9r is a good board for AA. SPR 1.3 GII
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Old 08-08-2021, 09:23 PM   #18
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Re: AAK54 3! Pot spr 1.3

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I guess I wanna know what people think about neutral or marginally +EV spots in general. When we can wait for much higher-EV spots why gamble in these?
You are playing 5 Card PLO, almost all your spots will be high variance, marginal EV.

Generally, this spot isn't marginal, its clearly +EV spot. Villain can jam any board pair + backdoor.
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