1/2 PLO online 5-handed
Hero is button with AdAsJdTd
UTG calls
CO folds
Hero raises to 4.5BB
SB calls
BB folds
UTG calls

3 ways to flop, 14.5BB

Flop 9s7s2c

SB checks
UTG checks
Hero bets 7BB
SB folds
UTG raises to 21BB
Hero?

Read on UTG is moderately loose, aggressive type. Feel like I'm up against 999 or 777 but could be straight or flush draw. Thinking fold or shove here. Fold seems better.

Should I have checked flop? Bet size different?

Fold as played and think we mostly checkback the flop.

I agree with folding as played, but I am unconvinced that the best play is to check back this flop 'most' of the time. I am not saying you are wrong, but I would like to know the thought process as to why we are checking back this flop most of the time, 3 handed while holding AA with the As and J10. We have AA, can rep the nut flush draw and also have 5 nut outs to fall back on when needed (Ac, Ah, 8c, 8d, & 8h). Wouldn't it be better to bet the flop most of the time and check back sometimes? Looking for serious feedback as this is a spot I think we all struggle with sometimes.

If we do bet the flop, I would prefer to bet the pot though rather than a smaller sizing. I think a smaller sizing is a pretty common giveaway that a preflop raiser with a premium holding missed the flop. However, a pot size bet gives the impression we could have connected with this flop with our other 2 cards or we have AA with the nut spade draw and are willing to gii. Smaller flush draws and even K high, will fold to a pot size bet a good portion of the time but will almost always call a smaller sizing. Same for OESDs, mediocre 3 card wrap type of draws, and 2 pair holdings.

Thoughts?

A lot depends on if either player has a leading range. If not, their checking range is a lot stronger. so I'll lean towards check.

A few heuristics that help me in this spot: Do we have BDFD? No, so lean towards betting.
Do we block sets? No, so lean towards checking
Can we continue betting on turn/river? Yes on spades, A, 8 and a few others.(we want to be betting polarized)
Do we hate getting c/r? Not really, we do have some equity against sets, but not enough to hate bet/folding.
(this is why we would check with BDFD and/or not blocking spades)

Can you let us know the effective stack sizes please as this will affect decision making.

If it is relatively deep this feels like a pure check on the flop to me. If it is super deep then Cardiff Giant's heuristic's aided analysis becomes more important.

This flop favours the ranges of both SB and UTG, both of whom will play in flow and c/r if effective stacks are deep.

Betting this flop is asking to be blown off your equity. We have no BDFD and at 1/2 the fake flush draw is devalued
compared to higher stakes because there is less real money involved so players are more likely to be non believers,
and if you are up against a set they'll call the turn anyway, so you'll lose at showdown if both players are all in,
lose if the board pairs and you both still have chips, or lose if it doesn't pair and your 2nd barrel is called.

Betting this flop feels like trying too hard to win a pot in a very marginal spot. Take the free card, pot control and re-evaluate the turn.

CardiffGiant's heuristics are relevant, but IMO their relevancy increases in importance the deeper we are sitting and decreases in importance
the shallower we are sitting.

I would never bet big here, why do we want smaller flush draws to fold when we have the most NFDs and are the only one who can hold AA+NFD? A lot of weaker flush draws 'should' fold even if they are getting enough 'pot odds' to call when we bet 1/2 pot 3 ways.

We do not have a nut flush draw here, only the As. What you say makes sense in theory, but not in reality to what I see at the tables. We want smaller flush draws to fold in this particular spot, especially when they have a piece of the board along with gutshots and other weak combo draws, as we do not have a great hand to continue here. Our goal should be to take it down on the flop with this hand and this flop, not to get to the river with it. In my experience, I see the K or Q high, and even medium, flush draws calling a smaller sizing on the flop most of the time based on OP description of the opponent. Against a solid reg or tight player sure, but not against a loose aggressive player. Once you price them in, they are calling when they hit their flush and being sticky with other holdings. Too may things can go wrong here if we see a turn and a river with this hand and this flop.

This is why I like the bigger sizing on the flop. I don't want calls as there are too many turn cards that will make it hard to play our hand effectively, even in position. Again, this is just from my experience in the games I play.

Makes sense. However, imo you need to make sure you are being balanced enough if you are going to be checking back a lot of these flops, otherwise you are going to get run over by aggressive players if you check this type of flop too much only when you miss.

What is your take if you are going to bet the flop though? Smaller sizing or larger sizing?

Reasoning for checkback is Hero should be checking back a ton of his nut flush draws too and has far less 2p+ and wraps than opponents.

We also want to be cautious about bet/folding a hand with such good equity and the ability to represent nuts later streets.

If I was betting I would bet about 1/3rd, but only if effective stacks are pretty deep, but I am not betting on this board.

I am all for balance, but not with this particular hand on this board.

Us having the As is also bad as it increases the chances that we are up against a made hand.

A great way to create balance post flop is to include more playable hands in your opening and 3 betting range pre, obv preferably in good position, so include many hands that don't always have big pairs in them but have good board coverage. This will balance your C betting ranges because you will be able to C bet some of your AAxx and KKxx type hands on low to middling board textures as well as bet your more middling card composition good board coverage hands that have smashed the flop or have great equity.

Balance is less important in PLO than in NLHE IMO (the exception would be in deep stacked higher stakes where more players are playing a metagame)

The reasons why it's less important, are that PLO is a game of more certain information, and because there are a lot more types of mistakes that opponents you have
an edge on will make. In tougher line ups/higher stakes, applying a more exact and precision solver type strategy is very important and often essential, meaning the game
does become more similar to NLHE because players' actions/bets are more likely to be based on, or include as a significant factor, their perception of your range and their perception of your perception of their range!, which is why you'll see more triple barrels with air and check raises OTF with nothing more than some back doors at higher stakes, or even at mid stakes against tough opponents.

This forum skews very fit-or-fold imo.

I really think you should bet this flop in general. What to do vs c-rz depends on stacks.

You happen to be in a somewhat awkward situation where you have substantial but not great equity with the AA and JT, but also strong fold equity with the As blocker.

I also agree that there is a somewhat misconceived concern for having to bet-fold too many big pairs on flops that tend to not be good for them. You need to diversify your raising and 3-betting ranges rather than clamming up every time you have an unimproved big pair.

These are my thoughts as well. Otherwise, you are going to get run over too often by solid players and even subpar LAG players. What sizing do you prefer as I obviously prefer a larger sizing for the reasons I already stated itt? Most prefer a smaller sizing.

My standard bet size into a large field is always smallish (half-pot online unless the board is paired or monotone) unless stacks make my bet-folding range too small even with a small bet, because most of your value range would still want to fold under certain circumstances (e.g. a raise and reraise after your bet).

With UTG limper and BB, I would be checking back this flop to see the turn. It's multi way, many opponenets don't have leading ranges and that board hits thier ranges better than ours.

Heads up I might be more inclined to bet/fold flop because we can then represent spades on t/r.

We have 42% equity against two players playing top 50% of hands.

This definetly makes the most sense to me aswell,

I think the majority of the time a set would lead out but considering he more probably or at least equal probability is a big draw or some of the time two pair its a pretty easy fold because you dont have much money in the pot. If you want to play it than the most correct line would be to bluff either a straight or flush draw as he would probably check a scary turn. Also a fairly good amount of time he could be making some type of play as your on the button. Not as likely, but still feasable.