Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkD
This hand is really hard, but I feel like there is a lot wrong in this thread. I haven't had time to really work on this yet as it's hard to get the ranges and work with them. I guess I need to do some work to create some custom propokertools ranges, but alas I haven't.
I don't have the ability to check this at 200bb, but I can check it at 150bb if we ignore the original limper, so I set up a 150bb sim with the co opening and the btn flatting and this was a clear 3-bet. The ev difference was enormous. It was not close.
The second point that has been bothering me is that we have KK in our range less than our opponents do. I think this is categorically false. I haven't had the time to really dig into this, but I feel fairly good about my guess here.
It has to do with Bayes and conditional ranges and how narrow our range is relative to our opponents ranges. I doubt that either opponent has much of a folding range after we 3-bet and let's assume that CO opens large (25%) and let's eliminate AA hands from his range since he didn't 4! and eliminating these ranges would bias him towards more KK hands.
Board - K54
PLAYER_1 25%!AA
PLAYER_2 8%
How often do(es) PLAYER_1 match hand range KK? 6.1377%
How often do(es) PLAYER_2 match hand range KK? 15.0410%
Yeah, we could do a lot more work on this to figure it out, but there is no way at all that either one of these villians is more likely to have KK than we are. Our range is AA dominant, but the second most likely combo in our range is likely KK. I'm not buying any argument put forth in this thread to the contrary but would be happy to have someone do some data anlaysis and show me wrong.
i'm curious how much the EV difference between flatting and 3-betting changes between, say, a 100bb and 150bb sim. as that might give us an idea of how much it might change between 150 and 200 or beyond. i'm also curious whether that change is linear or whether it curves sharply the deeper you get... e.g. is the difference between 100 and 125 the same as the difference between 125 and 150?
i think i agree that we have a pretty competitive frequency distribution for KK combos, but the problem is our opponents should have many more of all the other medium to strong combos besides KK, including two pairs, sets and wraps. and i think this is more the case than it would be in a 3-bet pot against tighter players or at a lower stack depth - these specific opponents are calling wider, and the average opponent can also afford to call wider with more money behind. so our range is less able to support a normal OOP lead as the 3-bettor on a dry board than it would be at 100bb.
a lot of the equity we generate when 3-betting strong hands OOP is our ability to maintain the initiative by c-betting into the relatively lower SPR that our 3-bet created. this compensates for the positional disadvantage, which is really important. the deeper we are, the less we can do that, both because the SPR is higher and because our opponents can call wider and connect with a wider variety of boards, which wrecks our normal heuristic for dryer textures.