I think turn is potentially the best at this stack depth but its hard to actually quantify it. Theres a toy game where raising on the turn with a made hand was IIRC inferior to raising with a strong draw because there are few scenarios on the next street that actually shows a large profit. I also think running into QQ here as much as people would call it a cooler, the fact remains, we are more or less dead against a decent % of his range for a large amount of money, and our playability against the rest of his range that continues on turn is not that great because there are so few rivers we actually can v-bet. The massive downside is that we don't raise this our range is crazy imbalanced towards bluffs/strong draws, are your flatting some % of your QQ on the flop apostol?

I broke down the 67% of his range that is Q+.

QQ - 9%.
53+ - 40%
Q+ - 18%.

If you guys wanna see numbers for different flop/turn assumptions, let me know.

How much of his Q+ range is Q4 or Q7 but not Q74 ?

actually it doesn't matter.

Thanks for the stats

Ph33rox, he's barelling turn waaaaaaaaaaaay wider than the range you gave him
Djross13, of course i'm flatting some QQ combos on the flop, pretty often actually.

apo5tol, I've tried a few barreling ranges, some as wide as 70% cbet flop & 73% cbet turn. In the worst case scenario for us his straights are 7% of his range instead of 6%, but in all of those cases he has 2% blockers instead of 1%. It seems that preflop really limits the amount of straights SB can have here, even if 50% sounds wide.

The air part of his range (worse than Qx) changes its weight depending on how often he barrels AA/KK/AQ combos for example, but it never seems to drop below 22% for me, and with some wide barreling ranges it exceeds 30%.

didnt read any responses yet..

I think flop flat is good.

I really like raising turn turn versus calling. (Although, I think raising turn as a bluff and barreling river versus check, so need to balance with dem bluffs).

I think the action pre will help us solve the river dilemma. Does villain have a 50% SB open versus hero, or overall? I assume hero is a good reg (I respect your strat posts), so I would assume villains SB open to be lower and probably not include very many 77xx or 44xx combos. I doubt villain cbets/barrels with many 77 combos either. I also suspect villain bets 77/44 sometimes instead of C/rs.

Backdoor straight seems much more likely than backdoor blockers c/r... That said, he could still be cr'ing without blockers. I suppose that depends how good villain is and how thin he perceives us to value bet.

Depends on history/dynamics versus villain. Without dynamics I'm folding.

If this is true and villain is good reg, call river

Flop is fine, though I personally prefer raising

Not raising turn makes your turn raising range too weighted towards combo draws, but nothing wrong with mixing it up sometimes.

I'm folding vs the river check-raise, if villain was bluffing he'd likely just lead himself as a zillion draws missed, making the barrel quite profitable. If he has just the blockers he doesn't wanna allow apo to CB TPTK or other random one-pair hands. Villain's massive sizing also looks value-heavy eventhough I don't know him. The play looks very Swedish though

Apo, did you hero called and lost or you folded and wanted some confirmations on your play?

Nice hand sir
What led you to call rather than fold?

I 'know' hero wins there but so surprised the blockers did not triple barrel. Maybe he dind't want to be double bluffed

let's try to see it from villain's perspective : hero would call river with any two pairs, sometimes with a lone Q...
Hero's river betting range is composed of Air, 2 pairs sets and straights.
Sets are very unlikely and straights almost non existent due to them blockers.
I guess the c/r river gets alot of 2pairs/pairs to fold and get a bet of value from air compared to barreling. On top of that hero's hand is so disguised villain will assume hero almost never has a trip so he expects to see hero fold alot in this spot.
The only hand he loses to would be a T or a Q that check back in this spot. Otherwise I really think villain line is super strong there.

I suppose because it's 4 handed and BvB you can find calls with Q's up because the hands are going to be sporadic like KQ54. but I see hero checking behind his calling range and a folding range which wins some % of the time, hero has to be worried about the river CR, because the river is kind of blankish and villain has to be worried about him checking behind. It does only make sense to CR with 74 for me but the sizing here should be lower because it is so obvious. But how can you know.

If hero had T6 it's obviously a good call int his spot but I do wonder if T6 can withstand a big barrel on the river. As a one off sure but it's easy to adjust against such calling station esque play. Besides so much 1 pair **** is checking behind and 1 pair is deffo having a hard time calling and bluffing because villain did not triple barrel.

MtFN would you bet call river with Q5 or Q6 in hero's shoes?

I check behind, unless there is a specific reason for inducing. I don't know what's going on generally in this hand after turn. Q5 is being raised earlier in the hand, so I can only have Q6 here, raising flop with this hand more often than with the set, if get CR pot then calling and looking at turn. But I don't know because of sidecards

I actually think that bluffing with a 3rd barrel is very very bad with villain's hand - he's blocking 2 diamonds while the 44 blockers are not relevant at all, he also wins some non-zero % of the time with his 88.
CR bluffing with this hand is a lot more appealing, since thats the only way he can actually rep a straight and make me fold not only my air but also a large portion of my value range.

I think the hand is very well played by the villain, he just happened to 1) run into top of my range 2) I thought he would mostly triple barrel his straights as he can expect to get looked up very light.

Believe it or not, the 2 in my hand was actually the deciding factor.

no no no it might win more often but the cost is ridiculously bad if you are potting, the gradient is far nicer when b/fing and the river is blankish so I see no need to leave the position of aggressor. If he had raised smaller then it can even out, just maybe, depending on how he sees you. It's more the double bluff that I'm worried about, but that is where you barrel smalle rleaving space to rejam LOL like if hero is raising villain barrel I smell a bluff so much with these blocker

Villain does block the diamonds here, but given apo doesn't raise the superwet board OTT he shouldn't have much of a valuerange beyond str8s. This is just my assumption and seems to be way off, lol. Clearly villain has a read on apo's range being stronger than most of the player pool.

I really still prefer villain's line over 3barreling.
Hero's bet/call range is sooooo thin there....
Apo I don't know about the 2 being a reasonable deciding factor... Not sure he would even pull that one out with 42. Maybe 442 but that's a quite unlikely hand isn't it

Well, if villain can't v-bet Q6+ he would have a thin range... I guess vs apo's range you gotto be more careful.

Lol but maybe he just does this like hardly ever and posted the thread because it was unorthodox,

I mean I really should not be antipating his hand to just call the turn and if you start doing that then they have got you in a bad place.

Honestly, how much was just pot controlling on the turn because of QQ?

Apo,
Had villain barreled on the river would you have called or you find some value raise in this spot?

Depends on his sizing. If he would bet 2/3 or less I would raise 100%

Protecting your calling range on that flop texture is pretty standard

Turn call is bad, you are too high up into your value range and the board is too wet to want to use this hand as a bluff catchy call/call/call hand (call/call/raise gets the same value as c/c/c if your raise doesn't get called). Raising turn both nets you more value from weaker made hands it makes the hand "easier to play" given how often he is likely to check range to you on the river whether he can beat your TT or not, e.g. he generally cant bet/call AK and then value bet into you on a J ldo.

River betsize isn't very good for what you should be trying to accomplish.

Villain attempting to c/r bluff in a spot where you have a narrow betting range (and obviously even narrower b/f range), but have a wide array of weak made hands that will fold to a bet but that also beat 88 at SD is bad.

If I was in your shoes I would probably fold, if I was in my own, probably not.