Villain seems tricky and capable, but these are from first impressions and recognizing his name. WWYD?





[converted_hand][hand_history]Absolute, $5/$10 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #9250632

SB: $2,079.25 (207.9 bb)
Hero (BB): $949.25 (94.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 5 4 3
SB raises to $25, Hero calls $15

Flop: ($50) K J K (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $35, Hero raises to $97.50, SB calls $62.50

Turn: ($245) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $152.50, SB calls $152.50

River: ($550) 5 (2 players)
Hero

seems like a coin toss, bet or c/f

As played c/fold river. I would fold pre fwiw.

I dont think you fold out better often enough (or possibly ever) nor are ahead enough to warrant a bet for value or as a bluff... so Id check, and probably fold, although its tempting to try to call and pick off a bluff from Kx thats bluffing now, but w/o more info/reads than just first impression/screenname, I think its too likely a c/c is burning money to call

edit: you could try betting 80$ but he might look at his Kx, and be like "**** this guy I have blockers, Im getting him off his flush" and then u pretty much run into the same problem that I described above by deciding to c/c, except u put an extra 80$ in the pot first

double edit: thinking about your entire strategy in this spot given how few boats you can have vs flushes/missed wraps w/e else is pretty interesting

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you agree with my entire post, or just with the bold ?

Your flop c/r and turn bet with this specific hand implies you are taking the same line with a very wide range, prob much wider than what GTO would be... which implies hes making the mistake of folding too often to a raise somewhere and everywhere possibly.

You cant really go from having a very unbalanced strategy on the flop, to having a very balanced strategy on the river, so you are basically putting yourself in a position on the river where you have to make a ton of assumptions about his strategy. I think you would make those assumptions way better than me so Ill shut up now

I'd bet like 300

i'de bet/call ~220
villain SN? and urs? :P

Nothing is wrong with your post, Danny, but I wanted people to think of the bold and not just hand in a vacuum because it's a pretty easy spot then.

4 sho.. I think given the width of your range on the river and the fact that it is pretty blended ranging from nut boat, non nut boat, high flushes, low flushes, possibly good unboated Kx and missed straight draws, optimal strategy at this point would prob be to check everything and respond to a bet accordingly with each part of your range.

except that villain's most likely hand by far is Kx and he is always checking that back

I'm talkin about that triple beamin dreaming balance! Don't think we are on the same page here.

Also if we are talking exploiting Idon't think most decent players are calling Kx here!

Just to clarify I'm asserting that because our vbetting range is so narrow compared to our entire range and because the majority of our range is showdownable but not able to vbet, gto strategy might dictate checking everything in this spot. Another solution would be to value bet the tip top of our range like boats and nut flushes, bluff the very bottom which is missed straight draws and have the rest of our range check and respond to a bet by calling the top x% depending on his bet size. Of course that's just a macro view of our strategy.

I mean, if you minbet Kx is calling. So the question is how much can we bet and win half the time when called or whatever.

I'd just balance by using that sizing for all the hands I wanted to bet here.

Checking is obviously fine, and is what villain expects you to do with this hand. I like betting for that reason and for the meta it generates going forward either when called or not.

if he folds your river bet doesn't acomplish nothing for metagame. i mean, villain probably will fold river thinking ''meh, nice KJ bro...'' if you get called you probably lose to KJ, K5 etc.


i hate betting on river. yes, would be good for metagame, but in vacuum i think the bet is so bad... maybe if you are trying make he fold a better hand i could understand, but hell, not a vbet.

I'm a pretty big station and I would close to never call any decent bet here with a worse hand in villain's shoes. c/f imo.

I think the only argument that can be made for betting the river is your frequency (take bottom range on flop to c/raise and follow thru in consequence). that said, from a gametheory point of view, this river probably has to be a bet. I think in spots like these where its close, just do whatever is best for your range, as apparently few other arguments can be made for either play anyway.

edit: so yea, Im betting river (just to be clear)

i dont think the river is a bet according to game theory. we wont have nothing often enough to make this a bet i think.

i dont see worse hands calling either. but if you're betting small enough u might give him the chance to come over the top with Kxxx who didnt boat up and turns his hand into a bluff bc his line can easily rep the nutboat..

I mean, your next three barrel has a significantly higher chance of getting called down (at least in my experience). So you can use that to your advantage.

we look really polarized and our range is uncapped - I don't see people turning Kx into bluffs here often.. I see them hero calling or folding

even if thats all 100% true, he still has flush combos and boat combos, i havent run a ppt sim but I gotta think a vbet is either rly thin or -ev. Factor in the % chance he takes Kx and thinks "blockers!" and I dont like it over checking. I personally think the meta game argument here is really weak for the reasons others have posted

I suppose this could be a vb under the righ circumstances. He is highly likely to have just a bare king since you bet twice. The problem is most villians with no history just fold with a medium king on river(at least I think so). If you think he's calling with medium kings then I guess you can start betting akxx and all flushes on river. It is nice that it strengthens your river bet range on the river. Btw if you're betting river I like an extemely small bet.

When things get complex, simple rules of thumb can be used to arrive at an answer.

<Bottom of range--------------------------------------------------------Top of Range>

You place that hand in the weighted scale above with an 'x', and I'll be the orcale.

I do suspect that you might have to c/f here.

he shouldn't really make it past the turn w/ many flush combos (unless they include a K) which is very important obv

Disagree strongly. Given doorbreads wide flatting and c/r ranges as evidenced by his play in this hand, there's still a lot of value in floating turn with many draws, both to play another street in position but also to make the best hand.