I have thought about this hand a bit, but didn't get a chance to look at it. My initial thought was that I hated the flop check and my suspicion was confirmed. This is a pure bet in this spot and you can mix between 1/2 and Full pot (given only those options).
I think about it this way, given my 3-betting pre-flop range where am I here? I started before the flop with a significant range advantage to my opponents. On this somewhat dry, dynamic flop, I continue to have a range advantage and I'm in the upper part of my range. Not the top, but I would guess we are at like 30th percentile although I can't confirm this without a lot of work that I'm not willing to do.
Not betting this flop is a big mistake.
Given, that we checked this is a dead easy pure call. You guys are giving way too much credit here to think we don't have enough equity to call. Like, we have the best hand here a good percentage of the time, and our draw is live a good percentage of the time when we are not the best. It's super clear.
I found the next part a little interesting, and I think this is what a lot of us would miss... you now need to JAM the turn on many many turn cards. I'm not sure I find this in game - but the results are amazing, so it's an excellent hand post. If we had bet the flop things would be different here I think, depending on the action, but after c/c flop this is the turn.
- A? jam
- K? jam
- Q? proceed cautiously
- J? proceed cautiously, unless it's the J - then JAM
- T? proceed cautiously
- 9? Jam
- 8? Jam
- 7? jam
- 6? jam
- 5? jam
- 3? jam
- 2? jam