Hero (1.1k) Button, seen as tighter reg
MP (3k) Seems aggressive just moved from must move
CO (1.5k) Aggressive regular

CO (1.5k) opens to $20, we call with the button w/ K10Q7cc, folds to limper in MP who makes it $90, call from CO and we call.

(280) Q62r ( no backdoor clubs for us)

MP leads to 150, CO snap folds, we call

(580) Q624 completing rainbow

MP checks, we check back

(580) Q6245

MP checks, actions on us, seems borderline mandatory for us to bet this river since we have so many more rundown type hands versus his perceived AAxx

So two questions here…

1. What would be your river sizing ?

2. On the turn, if checked to, what would be your sizing ( if any ) on a hypothetical Q629/ Q62J type board. Both examples we turn either open ended or double gutter along with top pair. SPR would be 1.67ish.

Thanks !

I think your actual hand could bet the turn but not too often, obv better with a straight blocker. Sizing would be like 25-35%.

OTR it depends a bit how likely you think he has the AA with a straight because that probably wont fold to any size. Here's where some reads come into play. If its well within his range i think something like 50-75% is probably best. If we think its quite unlikely then full pot is good.

So he limped then backraised? Are you expecting a lot of AA here? The turn is actually a good spot to start betting against AA - can certainly have 2 pr/sets and you really have no true bluffs, so he can't just go call call. As played the AA combos with a straight here are so low it's not really a concern - would definitely bet especially as this is the bottom of your range.

Preflop looks like fold facing 3bet in a high rake live game but I'm not terribly confident about it. We should be folding about 15% of our defends facing a strong 3bet strat. But this looks very AA heavy, we're mw, only hold one suit, and have a K in hand (contributing to "it's a lot of AA"). Open to seeing other opinions and learning.

As played, I think the price offered eliminates folding and we don't have the little extra for flop jam, for example a gutshot. So that leaves calling.

As played, I would think a bit about whether this opponent will fold more than he should. But I take a free card very frequently against the pool. If I did bet the turn it would be at least half pot. I think we can justify using this size for value at our current SPR because it leaves us about the same size bet on the river when called. If we were deeper I'd definitely size up because I think we are nut advantaged on this turn card.

As played, at least 2/3 on the river. Checking back competes with betting small making it harder for that size to work well. Although the nuts changed again, I think we would have bet a lot of turned draws there so we're not nutty enough to support full sizing now. But full pot may still work better vs this opponent.

What better bluffing hands do we have in this spot?

It depends if we’re talking balanced strat or exploitative play.

Exploitatively I really don’t hate the idea of going wild here, exploiting the fact that villain has way too many weak 1P/AA kinda hands here.

In a more balanced strat it’s a fine combo to bluff, the issue is that we have a ton of similar hands and only so much value so it wouldn’t make sense to bet this a high freq.

At this stack depth, I would not weight limper's range heavily to AAxx, particularly if he "seems aggressive." Expect to see many rundowns and also some double-paired hands.

I'd check back river, I think top pair on this runout will be good fairly often against described action.

This player came from must move so I had only seen several hands he was in and had extremely limited reads or knowledge compared to most players in this room.

I do not think we have much showdown value here. Most mid to low rundown type hands would either have hit the straight or have a valuable blocker for representing by the river. Same idea with two pair type hands, feels like we need two of JJ/1010/99/88 for v to just give up. Any other two pair hands either have us beat or contain a blocker that you would think anyone aggressive enough to limp/ reraise with OOP w/ 2 pair pre would barrel with.

In my experience limp/ reraise even from a deeper player is 80-90% AAxx when they will be seemingly OOP 2x. Other player in the hand is also very sticky and I’m sure V has sensed that even in a short period. I agree the hands tend to be rundown/ 2 pair when it’s not AA.

Yes preflop does feel close. Rake is 5%, cap at $5 so it is going to be $5 + $2 promo drop.

I think K10J7cc I probably fold cause of the extra gap at the top, and I would have folded if I had been calling the original raisor out of SB.

I tend to like these board coverage type hands better in this particular spot than say like a mediocre KKxx single suit. I’ve def folded mediocre KKxx’s in this spot feeling as it’s a pure set mine. Could be a leak of mine !

So I think the turn bet is tricky. With the SPR, we need to basically bet $300 or under to set up what I would consider to be a reasonable river shove. Lets say we bet $400 into $580 on turn. V calls.

(1380) Q642 and let’s say river is a 9.

We are betting under half pot on the river all-in bluff and V just needs to be right 25% on that price, idk I don’t love it. Lot of better spots in this $2-2-5 game.

And then the times we do bet small on the turn, small enough to have a greater than half pot river bet, I’m unsure we are creating like any fold equity on the turn. So it’s basically money we are using as a pure setup.

I just don’t know how much 53xx V is going to put me on.

We can have more than 53 - it's just hard for him to check the turn with say AA and call two streets knowing we have no natural bluffs. Even on the turn if he has a bare AA - how can he continue in the hand?