Quote:
Originally Posted by Newmanmi
Villain had pretty much the only hand in his range I didn't want to see.. JJ88. Would be curious to know the math behind 3b / calling that deep with hand knowing he will flop a set X% of the time.
Doing math on the 3bet is not easy but calling the 4bet is pretty clear if he knows you have AA**. He's going to need 37.5% equity to stack off postflop assuming you're not folding. He can get it in on about 35% of flops with somewhere between 70-75% avg equity, so:
EV (call 4bet) = .65*(-90) + .35*(.725*1092) = $43.6, so super clear call. Also, you might not stack off 100% but I don't think that's going to hurt him that much since it means some free cards and a few profitable bluffing spots.
4betting your random AA** still shows a profit though. There's ~$60 in the pot when you 4bet, he wins $43.6 by calling your 4bet, so you make ~$16 4betting. It's possible calling will show a bigger profit but hard to say. Oh and your hand will make more than the $16 since you have better than random AAxx.
Don't really want to check this over, hopefully numbers are close to right.