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2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot 2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot

08-21-2024 , 12:52 PM
Villain I have marked as an average player. I don't have a good read on them despite a decent sample size. They might view me as a bit of a call station but not sure.

100BB effective
we are 4 handed

Preflop: Hero has Q 7 6 3 OTB
1 fold, Hero raises to 3.4BB, SB folds, BB raises to 10.6BB, hero calls

Flop: 7 7 3
Villain checks, Hero bets 7.12BB (1/3), Villain calls

Turn: A
Villain leads for 11.83BB, Hero calls

River: 5
Villain bets pot (59.5BB), hero?

I am trying to think what this player could reasonably have. Does he turn A X into a bluff? I kept think it has to be AA. Is this too nitty? Is this a sigh call?
2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot Quote
08-21-2024 , 01:23 PM
I would fold this in this kind of game. AA will play exactly like this and people at these stakes are just not aggro enough with their potential bluffs and also will just cbet a lot of their draws themselves which takes some bluff candidates out.

Also note you have no blockers at all to AA.
2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot Quote
08-21-2024 , 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crimsonchin
I would fold this in this kind of game. AA will play exactly like this and people at these stakes are just not aggro enough with their potential bluffs and also will just cbet a lot of their draws themselves which takes some bluff candidates out.

Also note you have no blockers at all to AA.
What should be villains bluff in theory? Ax maybe with some FH blocker like a 3?
2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot Quote
08-22-2024 , 12:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yasuo
What should be villains bluff in theory? Ax maybe with some FH blocker like a 3?
That would be way too tight. So with his 3betting range and flop c/c range, how much of that range is AA? Gotta be like 30-50%. It would not be unreasonable to bluff every A with a kicker below Q. But I also think this is a spot population will massively deviate in all lines so

For starters IP will not stab nearly enough pure bluffs on this board

OOP is going to c/c way too weighted towards AA
2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot Quote
08-22-2024 , 11:27 AM
I mean this would be a textbook line from an average player with AA. I would size the flop larger - I doubt he's ever x/f this board. I don't think he's turning Ax into a bluff - most clubs would bet the flop. Really the only hands that MIGHT take this oddball line would be KK/QQ/JJ type hands. Also keep in mind if he's 3bing 10%, about 20% of his range is AA, and if he's 3bing tighter there's even more so he does have AA a fair amount. I would fold .
2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot Quote
08-22-2024 , 03:57 PM
Are we just folding on the turn or only on the river once he leads both streets?

I think we should be betting larger on the flop as well.
2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot Quote
08-23-2024 , 03:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace upmy Slv
Are we just folding on the turn or only on the river once he leads both streets?

I think we should be betting larger on the flop as well.
I was thinking about folding just right there on the turn. It feels a little weak but it’s not crazy I would say. One thing that helps a call is plenty of players at these stakes will not follow through their bluffs enough.
2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot Quote
08-28-2024 , 10:27 AM
I bet bigger on flop and I probably just fold turn, especially with reads.
2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot Quote

      
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