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2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set 2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set

12-08-2023 , 12:07 AM
Hero $900 eff

$25 bomb pot 7 players

T655hh T high hearts in LP

Flop ($175) 258r 1 heart

Checks to hero, hero pots $175, btn re pots to $700, hero?

Normally I bet smaller multiway, I think this bet might be a mistake. I felt even though it's a bomb pot and people could have anything there are plenty of turn cards we can barrel again and since no fd on flop. Only dead against 88. Charge straight draws and other hands that want to come along the max. Overpairs likely fold but any straight draw/2 pair likely come along at this table. Did not expect to get raised.

Last edited by Phraust; 12-08-2023 at 12:34 AM.
2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set Quote
12-08-2023 , 10:10 AM
Significant punt. Need very nutty or very shallow to bet flops in bomb pots everywhere but button. Even then nutty has a lot of incentive to check and see way oop.
2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set Quote
12-08-2023 , 11:01 AM
My first thought when I read this last night was that the bet felt wrong, but I don't know much about bomb pot theory. Happy to see we are all in agreement.

Given that you did bet and got raised, I have looked at some equity sims, and I think you are probably in a spot of indifference where reads can tip the scale.

From my calculations (I could be wrong), you need 35.9% equity to stack off here (calling is equivalent to shoving).

Let's say "sometimes" he just calls with 88, and sometimes he spazzes with 22, and mostly he also raises all of his good wraps or draws + 2 pair. (88@90 means he has 88 discounted to 90%)

88@90, 22@5, 679@90, 3467@90, 5678@90

Here is 34.6%. If I include a few more draws, I can get it up a lot higher, to 40% or even 50%; if he has fewer draws, then, of course, it's a huge punt. The above range feels like it might be my range, although 22 -> 0%.

In-game, I'd have a tough time folding this, but here, I'd recommend folding - although I think it's a spot where it likely doesn't matter what you do vs an unknown and if you have a good read that he is spewy then it's a pure call and if you have a read he's nitty it's a pure fold.
2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set Quote
12-08-2023 , 12:13 PM
Hard to believe any good reg is re-potting just 22 here. I don't really see any turn card that makes me happy to see other than the last 5, are 7h or 9h, which complete the wraps but gives me redraws. With only 900, facing a shove or fold moment, I think think this is a pretty easy fold.

Last edited by jjjou812; 12-08-2023 at 12:20 PM.
2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set Quote
12-08-2023 , 12:36 PM
Let's suppose I bet $60 here instead and he pots to $355. Do we still call? Or if we just check and he pots?

Also not sure if he is a reg or not. I had only been at the table 30 min and he was a very talkative guy with a Corona in his hand. For most part I play bomb pots very tight and never bet in EP but I still don't know exactly how to go about them or where to look for strategy on them. I also usually bet smaller. I think maybe unless I have the absolute nuts with a redraw (say 88 here with a straight draw) I should always bet smaller.
2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set Quote
12-08-2023 , 06:12 PM
Not that you know he is going to pot whatever bet you make, but the problem remains that while you hit the board hard with two cards, your other two cards suck, giving you marginal runner runner hands.
And until everyone folds you are basically fading the world.
2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set Quote
12-08-2023 , 06:13 PM
Not that you know he is going to pot whatever bet you make, but the problem remains that while you hit the board hard with two cards, your other two cards suck (they don't play well together preflop or post flop), giving you marginal runner runner hands.
And until everyone folds you are basically fading the world.

It's easy to say check call when you know button pots it, but it's probably the only way to stay in the hand to see the turn where any non matching card below a nine hits a wrap.

Generally, you have to be able to fold bottom and middle sets in Plo to be a winning player, a skill not required in nlhe.

Last edited by jjjou812; 12-08-2023 at 06:19 PM.
2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set Quote
12-23-2023 , 05:52 PM
People play crazy in these bomb pots. I don't think I'd fold. I think hero's equity is over 40% most of the time, maybe more.
2/2 live bomb pot, flop middle set Quote

      
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