100 buy ins, in 31 days prop bet for $300k, finish 18:19 CET 23rd Sep - LIVE now - Page 93 - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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100 buy ins, in 31 days prop bet for $300k, finish 18:19 CET 23rd Sep - LIVE now

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09-20-2014 , 05:07 PM

#2301

blopp

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,756

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarginOfErrr

Can you guys please stop filling this thread with ***** chicagojoey spam? I'm here for yaarny not some wanna be who makes podcasts cause he can't beat HSPLO.

ban

JI1 is awesome for the community

09-20-2014 , 05:14 PM

#2302

Bikini Wax

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,212

hit the showers YAAARNY

09-20-2014 , 05:26 PM

#2303

ChicagoJoey

Papi

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 15,555

Quote:

Originally Posted by ANJERS

are you streaming today joey?

yes will in a couple of hours

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bikini Wax

hit the showers YAAARNY

stop beating him jason

09-20-2014 , 05:57 PM

#2304

blakkman08

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 13,101

How many buyins?

09-20-2014 , 06:05 PM

#2305

Testi

Taking care of business

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 16,545

PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $5/$10 ($2 ante) - 4 players
Rail Hand History Converter

Lateski (UTG): $2852 (285 bb)
ZiWuvdUbtiYd (BU): $1248.50 (125 bb)
YaAaRnY (SB): $2773.50 (277 bb)
tha_winnah (BB): $2372 (237 bb)

Pre Flop: ($23)
1 fold, ZiWuvdUbtiYd (BU) raises to $30, YaAaRnY (SB) calls $25, tha_winnah (BB) 3-bets to $128, ZiWuvdUbtiYd (BU) calls $98, YaAaRnY (SB) 4-bets to $520, tha_winnah (BB) calls $392, ZiWuvdUbtiYd (BU) calls $392

Flop: ($1568) 8

(3 players)
YaAaRnY (SB) checks, tha_winnah (BB) checks, ZiWuvdUbtiYd (BU) bets $726.50 (all-in), YaAaRnY (SB) calls $726.50, tha_winnah (BB) raises to $1850 (all-in), YaAaRnY (SB) calls $1123.50

Turn: ($5994.50) Q

(3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($5994.50) Q

(3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $5994.50 (Rake: $1.50)

Showdown:
YaAaRnY (SB) shows 3

(a flush, Ace high)
(Equity - pre: 62%, flop: 33%, turn: 97%, river: 100%)

tha_winnah (BB) shows 3

(a straight, Four to Eight)
(Equity - pre: 21%, flop: 41%, turn: 0%, river: 0%)

ZiWuvdUbtiYd (BU) shows 5

(a flush, Queen high)
(Equity - pre: 17%, flop: 27%, turn: 3%, river: 0%)

YaAaRnY (SB) wins $5993

09-20-2014 , 06:09 PM

#2306

blopp

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,756

Quite soulcrushing to flop the nuts with a flushredraw in a 4bp, get it in 3w and have the worst hand.

09-20-2014 , 06:16 PM

#2307

Abe Schmuckfeld

banned

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 762

Is anyone taking care of testi? The man is a machine and a huge asset to 2p2

09-20-2014 , 06:18 PM

#2308

urubu111

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,778

vamooooooooooooo yarny !!!!!!!!

vamo porra !!!!! ! ! ! ! !

09-20-2014 , 06:26 PM

#2309

dankness3

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 3,439

looks like hes winning all the big pots from what i see, joey we need a sweat!

09-20-2014 , 06:35 PM

#2310

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,781

I wrote a simulator since I was bored to answer the question:

If my bb/100 is xx bb and my std/100 is xx bb, what's the probability that I will have > xx bb win at some point in the next xx hands?

2 bb/100 winrate
280 bb/100 std
3900 bb win target
33000 hands

success rate in 4000 trials: 0.2645

Second run of the same simulator with 0bb/100 expectation: 0.22425

Yes, a break even player has 22.425% (give or take, 4000 is pretty small sample) to be up more than 3900bbs at some point within 33,000 hands.

Last edited by grizy; 09-20-2014 at 06:41 PM.

09-20-2014 , 06:35 PM

#2311

cat skull

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 182

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarginOfErrr

Can you guys please stop filling this thread with ***** chicagojoey spam? I'm here for yaarny not some wanna be who makes podcasts cause he can't beat HSPLO.

Level one thinking?

If he was such a "fun player" why would all these end game monsters appear on his stream without giving him s***?

P.S. GL YaAaRnY!!

09-20-2014 , 06:38 PM

#2312

Karcsi

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 132

09-20-2014 , 06:50 PM

#2313

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,280

09-20-2014 , 07:04 PM

#2314

fityfmi

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,697

Cut the hate. Joey for prez. Yaaarny can be prince

09-20-2014 , 07:29 PM

#2315

known as Prince

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,147

Quote:

Originally Posted by fityfmi

Cut the hate. Joey for prez. Yaaarny can be prince

No.

09-20-2014 , 07:32 PM

#2316

TimStone

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 8,375

Quote:

Originally Posted by known as Prince

No.

Lolz

09-20-2014 , 07:35 PM

#2317

ReadyOnAll

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 124

Ban the hater! And we need to get that stream going now! Need my bgg game warmed up good and sharp for tonight, sick of getting crushed by whales..

09-20-2014 , 07:56 PM

#2318

blakkman08

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 13,101

Quote:

Originally Posted by known as Prince

No.

hahaha

09-20-2014 , 08:04 PM

#2319

MissMeYet?

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 72

Yurny roll

09-20-2014 , 09:02 PM

#2320

SmokeyQ123

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 6,583

Good stuff grizy!

09-20-2014 , 09:26 PM

#2321

hs3c

adept

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 760

PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $25/$50 - 4 players
Rail Hand History Converter

supernova9 (UTG): $5487.02 (110 bb)
YaAaRnY (BU): $12269.46 (245 bb)
mikki696 (SB): $4525 (91 bb)
AckmaJin (BB): $20503.66 (410 bb)

Pre Flop: ($75)
supernova9 (UTG) raises to $175, YaAaRnY (BU) 3-bets to $600, 1 fold, AckmaJin (BB) calls $550, supernova9 (UTG) 4-bets to $2425, YaAaRnY (BU) calls $1825, AckmaJin (BB) calls $1825

Flop: ($7300) 5

(3 players)
AckmaJin (BB) checks, supernova9 (UTG) bets $3062.02 (all-in), YaAaRnY (BU) raises to $9844.46 (all-in), AckmaJin (BB) calls $9844.46

Turn: ($30050.94) A

(3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($30050.94) 2

(3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $30050.94 (Rake: $2)

Showdown:
AckmaJin (BB) shows 7

(a flush, Ten high)
(Equity - pre: 19%, flop: 17%, turn: 14%, river: 0%)

YaAaRnY (BU) shows 4

(a flush, Jack high)
(Equity - pre: 26%, flop: 71%, turn: 86%, river: 100%)

supernova9 (UTG) shows 9

(a pair of Kings)
(Equity - pre: 55%, flop: 12%, turn: 0%, river: 0%)

YaAaRnY (BU) wins $30048.94

09-20-2014 , 09:37 PM

#2322

alexo18

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 2,409

Thats so yarny

09-20-2014 , 10:59 PM

#2323

ChicagoJoey

Papi

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 15,555

09-20-2014 , 11:46 PM

#2324

climbs

adept

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 842

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey

unban me broseph and dont rage ban me again pls

name is Bob jon i think

09-20-2014 , 11:46 PM

#2325

crashwhips

self-banned

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 3,940

Quote:

Originally Posted by grizy

success rate in 4000 trials: 0.2645

Second run of the same simulator with 0bb/100 expectation: 0.22425

Yes, a break even player has 22.425% (give or take, 4000 is pretty small sample) to be up more than 3900bbs at some point within 33,000 hands.

ty for taking the time to figure out the probabilities. So seems ~3:1 would be fair price for the bet.

Edit: though getting in 33k hands in such a short period of time is stretching it, so probably should get better odds than that if taking YaAarny's side.

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