100 buy ins, in 31 days prop bet for $300k, finish 18:19 CET 23rd Sep - LIVE now - Page 7 - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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100 buy ins, in 31 days prop bet for $300k, finish 18:19 CET 23rd Sep - LIVE now

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07-10-2014 , 02:29 AM

#151

boobsicles

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,435

I must suck because I started at 50plo and it's been two years and I'm nowhere near 100kplo.
2plo to 100kplo in a month sounds ******ed

07-10-2014 , 04:47 AM

#152

MATT111

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 6,004

Still betting 6-3.

07-10-2014 , 04:51 AM

#153

MATT111

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 6,004

Can see the problem though. Make it AIEV I think you will get a lot more action. Or make it 100k hands min.

07-10-2014 , 06:36 AM

#154

YaAaRnY

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 509

meh, I think its hard enough as it is, id lay the same bet too probably anyone but oddsen at 3:1 , im definitely taking the bad side , I just wanted to try something challenging.

the 10/20 ante games have gotta be the hardest game on the internet that run regular, ask any highstakes player , 25/50 usually only runs with a fish , I feel like im trying to hard to get this started, il see what action I get in the next 3 days then decide whether to do it or not .

07-10-2014 , 07:46 AM

#155

ChicagoJoey

Papi

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 15,434

Quote:

Originally Posted by MATT111

Can see the problem though. Make it AIEV I think you will get a lot more action. Or make it 100k hands min.

that is actually an interesting idea to think about imo

07-10-2014 , 08:33 AM

#156

krmont22

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 8,078

seems like you could just call 150 or 175bb a "buyin" at an ante game and problem solved

07-10-2014 , 08:59 AM

#157

burbs

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 209

DonkPredator was 3-1 in 2009 or whatever, and he just got there on the last day, now the games are much harder and no one wants to take 2-1

don't get it?

07-10-2014 , 09:11 AM

#158

cbt

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,960

Quote:

Originally Posted by urubu111

200bi is ridiculous hard and i think nobody posting in this thread made this one time at 5/10+.

dp made this at 2/4 whne games were easier. 2/4 4 years ago was very soft if compared to 2014 5/10+. people gave dpred 3:1 at softer games ... i mean, A LOT easier.

Yea I wrote 200BI @ 2/4+ but it's still close to impossible w/o running rly hot I think and no deep tables.

07-10-2014 , 09:15 AM

#159

JoKon

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 859

Quote:

Originally Posted by krmont22

seems like you could just call 150 or 175bb a "buyin" at an ante game and problem solved

or make this 1,5:1

07-10-2014 , 10:33 AM

#160

joeri

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 1,238

Maybe a compromise and add a rule to never buy in for more than 150 bb or something?

07-10-2014 , 12:53 PM

#161

YaAaRnY

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 509

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey

that is actually an interesting idea to think about imo

I think this is a good idea , stops me from winning the bet by running insanely hot , in a small period of time and a bit more likely to run to my true winrate , I'd agree to min 70k hands. (Lol sample ) but I'm unsure what volume I can achieve , the action changes from month to month and if zoom never runs ,100k might be a stretch

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeri

Maybe a compromise and add a rule to never buy in for more than 150 bb or something?

I'd be happy to buyin for no more than 150bb for the first 24 days , I think I gotta be able to gamble it up at the end , anything to make it any harder , I'd rather enjoy my month and give 100k to charity

07-10-2014 , 01:33 PM

#162

YaAaRnY

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 509

Quote:

Originally Posted by krmont22

seems like you could just call 150 or 175bb a "buyin" at an ante game and problem solved

not sure if this is an attempt to help or a hustle and you snap up the rest of the action

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoKon

or make this 1,5:1

do you think 1.5/1 is fair ?

where are the math guys who always pop up saying if you have a X bb winrate you still break even Y % over 100k hands.

im sure everyone would realise how bad 2/1 is for me then

07-10-2014 , 02:42 PM

#163

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 10,700

^Variance simulator to figure that out: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

if you don't want to click links just google "poker variance simulator" and it should be top link or something.

Plug in bb/100, hands, and std deviation (can be found as HEM stat), leave "observed winrate" field clear, and boom, variance everywhere...

For example, 100k hands 5bb winrate, 220std dev. x axis is hands y axis is bb's won/lost:

07-10-2014 , 02:45 PM

#164

napsus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 9,540

before this thread gets overly confusing, here is the current situation summarized

YaAaRnY to profit 10.000bb in 31 days at stakes 5/10 and higher

allowed tables:
-regular
-zoom
-deep ante

not allowed table:
-hu tables

current interest list for the bet with above mentioned rules (incl people who have withdrawn)

please correct me if there are mistakes in the list

07-10-2014 , 02:48 PM

#165

alexo18

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 2,409

No way whateverson has 20k

07-10-2014 , 02:52 PM

#166

napsus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 9,540

i suggest yaaarny sets a firm start date for the bet (with the rules in the OP) and the escrow should be done 3 days before the bet.
should there be a minimum amount for yaaarny to risk, if this doesn't fill up, the bet is cancelled and escrow returns the money.
makes sense?

otherwise this back and forth will just keep on going.

alternatively change the rules if needed and we have to check everyone's interest again.

07-10-2014 , 03:14 PM

#167

Two SHAE

Decentralized Financier

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,242

Quote:

Originally Posted by YaAaRnY

not sure if this is an attempt to help or a hustle and you snap up the rest of the action

I specifically asked for the relevant info to do this and was dismissed as a nit.

Minimum number of hands is beyond dumb unless you forfeit a large % of bet if you don't make it.

Last edited by Two SHAE; 07-10-2014 at 03:20 PM.

07-10-2014 , 03:29 PM

#168

urubu111

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,778

yarny, do what napsus said:

- make an ''oficial post'', saying the date you are starting, the minimum money bet you want to make this prop bet, write the name of escrow, judges and set the last day to guys send the money to escrow.

if you dont this, thread won't progress...

07-10-2014 , 04:01 PM

#169

YaAaRnY

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 509

Quote:

Originally Posted by napsus

Quote:

Originally Posted by urubu111

Ike has said he might wanna bet against , so i think it might run soon

gonna pm everyone who showed interest

07-10-2014 , 04:08 PM

#170

JoKon

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 859

Quote:

Originally Posted by YaAaRnY

Ike has said he might wanna bet against

in b4 people start to bet millions

07-10-2014 , 04:17 PM

#171

YaAaRnY

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 509

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoKon

in b4 people start to bet millions

yep , heard money is meaningless to him

07-10-2014 , 04:50 PM

#172

Sira Al Aziz

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 116

Are you going to include the two points you've mentioned earlier? (70k minimum hands and 150bb max initial buy-in at deep tables). Those sounded fair

07-10-2014 , 05:22 PM

#173

YaAaRnY

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 509

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sira Al Aziz

Are you going to include the two points you've mentioned earlier? (70k minimum hands and 150bb max initial buy-in at deep tables). Those sounded fair

haha you guys tilt me so much , i can see why you play 12/8

i can add 70k hands min , i lose if i don't play more.

07-10-2014 , 05:38 PM

#174

JoKon

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 859

i really don't see the difference of him buying in for 150 max...it will just delay him for like 30 mins.... the guy had a 80k swing in 1 day at 10/20 deep recently...

07-10-2014 , 05:45 PM

#175

guimz

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 1,285

Quote:

Originally Posted by YaAaRnY

not sure if this is an attempt to help or a hustle and you snap up the rest of the action

if you have an EV winrate of 4.04bb/100 and play 200K hands you break even in the bet. It means that you will win the bet 33% of the time...

Do you think you can achieve that? If not cancel ^^
It could also be an EV winrate of 8.65bb/100 over 100K hands fwiw

Or : 12.65evbb/100 over 70K hands

I think it's quite a tough challenge. Would bet against but no money to gamble lately ^^

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