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100 buy ins, in 31 days  prop bet for 0k, finish 18:19 CET 23rd Sep - LIVE now 100 buy ins, in 31 days  prop bet for 0k, finish 18:19 CET 23rd Sep - LIVE now

07-08-2014 , 02:22 PM
2k interest if still available

Thanks!
07-08-2014 , 02:31 PM
Good luck OP. you will need to play 200k hands with an EV winrate of 4bb/100 to BE betwise.
At these stakes not sure that's so easy .
Will enjoy following the bet for sure tho.
07-08-2014 , 06:20 PM
I'm one of the smaller bettors and therefore obv have much less at risk, but I have complete confidence in yarn. I've never met him personally or even on the forums but all of this nonsense with the webcams ect... seems like a bit too much. Unless there is a 24/7 stream which shows him sitting at chair/face/ even tables for that matter there is ALWAYS a way to get around playing all the hands.

But if him handing off some of the volume is the only concern (which is the only reason the check ins make sense) I would guess few people outside of a HS plo friend group would ever have someone play his hands in the prop bet given his amount at risk.


Will confirm my 2k later today/tmw, 95% in though but may need to WU or something, in US with limited epay options and suspended paypal account (because I run email scams obv) ill work it out with escrow(er)
07-08-2014 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gakn29
Your privacy is important but when you have a possible $300k+ swing ahead of you its time to make concessions. Make a video feed with a log in and only send it to the people who bet or at least people with five figure bets. It will give you a reason to do your hair in cool and exciting ways every morning.
Obvs +1

Quote:
Originally Posted by OMGKaraScott
Make skype account just for this bet and give it to bettors, put laptop/tablet/phone so that people can see you and screen, change settings to automatically accept calls.

gl
Good idea

Quote:
Originally Posted by YaAaRnY
7- bettors peace of mind, i want everyone playing too be 100% certain no foul play is happening

Quote:
Originally Posted by YaAaRnY
but if you think there is too much chance of foul play id just rather you didn't bet.
Its not about thinking its to much risk with you specific at all, re: chance of foul play, its about not making it supereasy to game the bet for anyone (esp with a 300k swing in it). Been so much shady stuff post BFI that I think anyone should be really careful, not naive, on both ends to make sure things run fair.

Example (with your suggestions) whenever the 1/day phone / skype call is taken you got a 1-23 hour window where it would be high EV to get a winning player on these stakes to jump in while you got much needed rest for short (bathroom, food, powernap) or longer breaks (sleep, shower, exorcise) . Quality play + Volume is obvious key in this bet. Having someone just taking over 10% of the time would be huge. Anyone capable of 20-50% of volume would skew the odds drastically.

Nothing personal vs YaAaRnY, and I dont accuse him of anything to be 100% clear, just general comments on how I think the rules should be fair and protective vs the bettors. Not run on mostly trust on a online gambling forum when we know the history (that maybe these 2014 accounts posting dont realize).
07-08-2014 , 07:33 PM
never played someone that runs as good as yaarny against me (except maybe the love2program), so I have no doubt in my mind he will make it
07-08-2014 , 07:46 PM
also i thaught it was either 100 BIs w/o zoom/deep or 200BIs with both allowed!?
07-08-2014 , 08:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blopp
Obvs +1



Good idea






Its not about thinking its to much risk with you specific at all, re: chance of foul play, its about not making it supereasy to game the bet for anyone (esp with a 300k swing in it). Been so much shady stuff post BFI that I think anyone should be really careful, not naive, on both ends to make sure things run fair.

Example (with your suggestions) whenever the 1/day phone / skype call is taken you got a 1-23 hour window where it would be high EV to get a winning player on these stakes to jump in while you got much needed rest for short (bathroom, food, powernap) or longer breaks (sleep, shower, exorcise) . Quality play + Volume is obvious key in this bet. Having someone just taking over 10% of the time would be huge. Anyone capable of 20-50% of volume would skew the odds drastically.

Nothing personal vs YaAaRnY, and I dont accuse him of anything to be 100% clear, just general comments on how I think the rules should be fair and protective vs the bettors. Not run on mostly trust on a online gambling forum when we know the history (that maybe these 2014 accounts posting dont realize).
obviously nothing personal , but I am starting to think you just wanna see me on webcam , pm me for rates


in all seriousness though, Im in the same boat as you, its natural to put up a defence mechanism to protect yourself, and I want there to be as little chance of anything going wrong as possible, but i think the bet running with a webcam has the same possibility of going wrong as it running with random phone/skype calls, (from bettors perspective) so im just gonna go ahead and say I will put my Skype on auto answer on my phone and I will give bettors 1 call a day , upto the people if they want to bet.
07-08-2014 , 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrollAccount
also i thaught it was either 100 BIs w/o zoom/deep or 200BIs with both allowed!?
200 was with 2/5 zoom included and 3/6

100 is 5/10 + any games, which i what i will be attempting .


if i had the choice i duno what id pick , i think they are pretty similar , probably go with the 200 at 2/5 so i wouldn't have to play at peak times 31 days straight
07-08-2014 , 08:29 PM
YaAaRnY I'll withdraw my interest as I thought it was 10/20+, 5/10 and zoom allowed kinda pushes it over the edge for me

GL, this way I get to root for you haha
07-08-2014 , 09:09 PM
im also thinking about withdrawing. ill let u know right before the bet
07-08-2014 , 11:39 PM
Im withdrawing , gl
07-08-2014 , 11:47 PM
are people withdrawing because all the zoom limits are also allowed?? I guess people were thinking it was 5-10 and 10-20 only regular tables originally?
07-09-2014 , 12:05 AM
well as i mentioned in first post with zoom and deep-tables allowed. this bet isnt so tough how it looks! so yeah if it is 100bis anygame im out as well.
07-09-2014 , 01:55 AM
go 200 bi and Im in
(only 1k tho if thats ok)

Last edited by yoyoplo; 07-09-2014 at 02:06 AM.
07-09-2014 , 02:56 AM
Regarding ante tables, I think that winnings there should be adjusted by the initial pot size, i.e. the net winnings in every hand should be multiplied by 1.5 and then divided by the size of the initial preflop pot in bb's, e.g. multiplied by 1.5/2.7=5/9 at a full 6-max ante table. Ask me to write a PT4 stat for that if necessary, it's very easy.

I don't understand why people are so opposed to the inclusion of Zoom - though it allows for a bit more hands an hour, the field is tougher there, isn't it? Or are the bettors counting on that YaAaRnY simply won't get enough action at normal tables?

Quote:
Originally Posted by guimz
PS: AIEV is quite far from an real EV line anyway. Most of the time playing optimally is different from making the play that will make this AIEV line look good.
Lol, what? The difference between the AIEV and actual winnings depends on the RNG only, never on any player's strategy.

It's harder to luckbox past the 100 AIEV BI mark accidentally than past the actual 100 BI, hence, from the bettors' viewpoint, picking AIEV as the criterion will increase their chances; but it won't alter the strategy - it will still consist in making plays that net the biggest real EV.

However, YaAaRnY apparently believes that his true EV is more than 100 BI and hence will prefer the AIEV as the criterion even if the odds are the same, to prevent losing the bet because of a downswing. All in all, using the AIEV spices the action up as it makes both sides more confident of their victory

Last edited by coon74; 07-09-2014 at 03:22 AM.
07-09-2014 , 03:05 AM
deep tables is what concerns me and also the fact that yarny runs insanely hot on a regular basis
07-09-2014 , 03:45 AM
Is my bet just ignored? Also I'm getting confused...if you play 2/5 zoom will $500 be 1 BI or will 2k be one BI??
Interested for 10k but definitely need more clarification before I confirm
07-09-2014 , 03:53 AM
damn you guys are good at confusing each other

the bet is to make 100bi (=10.000bb) at stakes 5/10 and higher (so zoom 2/5 is not included in this bet),
tables allowed are
-regular
-Zoom and
-ante
not allowed are
-HU tables.

however HU is accepted at the allowed tables (ante and regular), but he must allow others to join those tables and not keep them HU.



Quote:
Originally Posted by YaAaRnY
1 - all hands will be played on poker stars and full tilt poker ( most likely 100% stars)

2- hands played at heads up tables wont count towards the bet ( i will probably play 0 hands at 1 on 1 tables anyways but just want the option to be able too)

3- heads up is fine at 6 max or 9 max tables, i can play as many as i like and ask people to come join my tables, i wont be able too request the tables stays HU if people join though.

4- stakes will be 5/10+ with zoom allowed

5 - i will have 31 days from the hour i first play a hand , if i play a hand at 3:41pm it will be 31 days from 3:00pm at whatever date, i say this because sometimes there is 0 action and i don't wanna give up anytime just waiting from the off. (start date and a hour slot will be given a few days before i start)

6 - if someone from my immediate family dies , bet is cancelled, docs will be provided.

7- bettors peace of mind, i want everyone playing too be 100% certain no foul play is happening , but like my privacy and don't want to be on webcam all the time. im open to ideas but im happy to add the main bettors on what's app , and can send them a video with the days date and me playing 3 times a week or something at their random request. ( but if it helps i know no one who plays PLO and i definitely wouldn't trust anyone with my 100k, and most of the guys il be playing against are actually betting vs me )

8- i have to win 100 buyins, 1 buyin = 100 big blinds , if at anyone point i pass the 100 buyin point , the bet is won. this will be confirmed by either a judge or pokerstars.

9 - 3 judges will decide any disputes , i will do everything in good faith towards the spirit of the bet , and i hope all the bettors will just treat it as any normal month, no slowing tables etc

10- if for some reason poker in UK becomes illegal or i get banned from stars from no fault of my own , bet is cancelled.

11- if anything unforeseen happens , like a power outage in my area or w/e i have a week to relocate.

lemme know what you guys think ? i may have missed a few things , so if anyone wants to add or tweak some of the rules , go ahead , Roy kindly agreed to be a judge but wouldn't like to escrow, if anyone can help me on this would be appreciated .
07-09-2014 , 04:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74
Regarding ante tables, I think that winnings there should be adjusted by the initial pot size, i.e. the net winnings in every hand should be multiplied by 1.5 and then divided by the size of the initial preflop pot in bb's, e.g. multiplied by 1.5/2.7=5/9 at a full 6-max ante table. Ask me to write a PT4 stat for that if necessary, it's very easy.
i would just suggest to keep this simple and go with simple bb/$ terms, then people can choose to bet or not bet as they wish.

Last edited by napsus; 07-09-2014 at 08:41 AM.
07-09-2014 , 06:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boobsicles
Is my bet just ignored? if you play 2/5 zoom will $500 be 1 BI or will 2k be one BI??
.
..
...

wut
07-09-2014 , 06:31 AM
daamn all these people chickening out make me nervous
07-09-2014 , 07:32 AM
The "problem" are deep tables because they have lol variance.

Do something like 150-200 BI w/o deep tables at 2/4+ imo.

DP made his 100 BI at 2/4 almost 4 years ago. If you think about games having progressed since then
I think that would be quite a sick challenge.
07-09-2014 , 07:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbt
The "problem" are deep tables because they enable non-lol winrates.
FYP.
07-09-2014 , 07:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoKon
daamn all these people chickening out make me nervous
it's problem
07-09-2014 , 07:54 AM
Ill follow and bail out as well

      
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