Hi All:

Same opponent in the prior hand that I posted. He has proven to be tight in some instances (i.e., calling when a raise is appropriate closing action) and spewy in others (making bluffs holding blockers to second nuts, like a nut flush blocker on paired board). He's running 75/20 and I'm running 48/34 over a 400ish hand sample, but this is skewed by heads up and 3 handed play which was about half of the sample.

PREFLOP (6 handed)
UTG limps, Hero raises to 4.5bb with A2a8 (covers table), CO calls (can be spewy, 85bb eff.), SB calls (the main opponent, 270bb eff.), BB folds, UTG calls

FLOP (19bb)
JT5

checks through

TURN (19bb)
K

SB bets 9.03bb, utg folds, I 3b! to 32.85bb, co folds, sb calls.

River 84.7bb
8
SB checks, I bet 71bb

Reasoning is that it is unlikely that anyone has nuts with two aces dead in my hands. Line looks authentic. Vs this opponent, I think he could fold sets, but not sure if I am being too optimistic. I'm not running this bluff 100bb deep, but thought It could work playing deep. Let me know if I'm a spew money please!

I'm just not really sure what hands this guy will show up with that aren't straights when he bets into 3(?) people on the turn. And if he does have like pair + NFD + gutter or something you probably win on showdown anyways. I'd probably fold turn. Yeah you have aces but I think you'll just run into it enough that piling a raise + psb into the pot probably isn't profiting.

Just not a fan of running this bluff as a club river screws up the plan and he can still have second/third nut hands that will probably call you a fair percent of the time.

First thing is you have to ask yourself what are the chances you would have checked AhAdQc2h on this flop. Or, AKQx, or AcQcTh5h, or AhQhQd2d... because that is what any decent player will be asking themselves.

Basically if you would have flop bet all those then anyone who reads you at all decently would suspect you don't have it now. If you would flop check some of those sometimes after being the preflop raiser, then the bluff is more likely to be believed.

Would think that villain would move in on turn with nuts and his half pot bet fon't look superstrong so it makes sense to push it through.

Though high variance. In the end we risk 100+bb to only win around 50bb with no outs to improve so not sure if long term this will pay off.

good line. pretty much necessary to do here. just run this line with the ace of clubs more often in theory, but in practicality id say any aces here should do this because you could have nut clubs. if villain has the nfd I feel like we'll see it sometimes on turns which keeps you from overbluffing rivers tbh

obviously if people at 1/2 dont bet into 3 people without the nuts which they should have some bets CLEARLY if theyre balanced loool. Aggro play rules. look at it this way too.. how else are you gonna play this hand? folding here basically means we think he has the nuts hundred percent basically. this is great for your range to stay balanced with bluffs. any decent player will look you up more if you are shown to have bluffs, so this is a good one to pick

a good opportunity to go for a bluff and also lends itself to you getting paid when you do have it, esp against a thoughtful opponent.

i don't like the river sizing. all the draws brick. if you had it i would expect you to size down to around half pot. unless your standard with nuts is near full pot and you have history, i think river is too unbelievable, which would actually be a case for sizing up, which nullifies my argument. damn leveling

i was thinking the same thing, it's almost a requirement.

esp against that sizing, and aaqx for sure can check jtx flop without flush draw 3 ways np.

Thanks, all, for the comments. V tank-folded what he claimed was top set.

If he calls, you're dead. No way around it. This is a bluff, man. Go play 25/50c for 100 hands.

Solid analysis