Hi all:

Looking for river line check here. Not afraid of playing huge pots in terms of relative BBs, but don't want to spew. Not sure if this should be tagged high or low. Tagged high because of amount of bbs, but if it needs to be edited, no worries. Thanks!

I've been playing with opponent all day. His strategy has been a little all over the place. HU he has been both passive and aggressive, making huge blocker bluffs when the blockers are to things like second nuts, and calling down hands that are the relative nuts.

He recently made comments about how pure I run vs him after he claimed to fold top set against me on a scary board. I'm running 46/32 on this table over 500 hands, but this sample is skewed because I started the table and played 2 and 3 handed for probably half the sample.

1/2 PLO (Six Handed)
Preflop
UTG Raises to 3.5bb, 1 fold, CO calls (670BB effective, 75/18/3.2), BTN calls, SB Calls, I Call in BB with KKT3 (950bb)

Flop (17.5bb)
K72
Checks to CO who bets 8.31bb, folds to me 3! to 41.55bb, CO calls

Turn (100.61bb)
8
I bet 100.61bb, CO calls.

River (298.83bb)
3

Action is on me. Pot is about 300bb, CO has 525 bb behind, I cover. BDFD came in. My hand is faceup, although I can obviously have spades to go with it, and have a Ts blocker fwiw. In game I thought his most likely holding was a set of 7s, followed by a set of 2s. I'm afraid that if I check this goes c/c when he doesn't have spades. I'm afraid if I bet, I get shoved on and have to decide whether to puke/call or puke/fold.

Based on previous history with him, I can see him bluffing naked ace of spades if he has it, but have never played this deep with them and don't know if they have the guts to bluff this much (in terms of relative dollars and big blinds).

What would you do?

check

What can he even have here outside of 77/K7 with spades? I would probably just check and lean towards folding if he bets big - I think this is too thin for value at this point and he shouldn't be betting worse value hands. Don't see why he would turn anything into a bluff at this point.

I think a simpler plan with this hand is to check the turn. hear me out.

I get the value you can get from other sets, straight draws, other sets, two pair ( although unlikely because you have 2Ks) is really good here, but imo theres alot of merit to checking.

Youve already got a lot of bbs in on flop with the initial C/R. Youve basically said youve got a set or a bluff, to me anyway. Youre just too deep to blast away with two pair.

If you CHECK here on the turn, he can either check back, or bet himself. If he bets you have a easy get in, and if he checks, well.. the river could come a flush (although he didnt bet) or a straight (again he didnt bet). IK you raised flop so he shouldnt have all that many bets if hes balanced though.

If the river comes a blank, you can either bet or c/r depending on reads, and if a scare card comes you have a easy call given his turn check back imo.

thoughts?

I bet $400 because I hate money and got tanked called by 77 with seven-high spades.

if he's ambitious in these spots like you say then check call

I don't like being afraid of the dark but if you bet when he doesn't have spades then that's just another reason for him to fold. He's calling any bet with any spades regardless. just check and hope he induces or bets less than full when he has it.

edit: i wrote my reply before looking at the results. maybe you saved yourself 200, or cost yourself 100 lol.