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<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? <img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense?

05-17-2023 , 09:15 PM
PLO $1-2 blinds, $5 bring-in
8 handed
Button straddle
Some details reconstructed imprecisely from memory

Stacks: Hero $250
Button and BB barely cover
BB: Middle-aged guy, seems fairly loose-passive.
Button: Like playing my doppelganger. Buys in for $100-200; seems competent and TAG.
Hero: I typically buy in short and play tight, but not as tight as I should. Effectively unknown to most opponents.

Hero CO with AT53

Preflop
F, UTG+1 limp, F F, Hero R $15…

Today I was experimenting with raising for value IP with marginally playable hands. I don’t like my raise size. I should either pot it to $20 trying harder to knock out the straddle or limp. It’s not a very good hand but I expect suited aces to have good IO in this game.

… Button call $10 more, F, BB call $13 more, limper call $10 more.

Flop
$61 pot ($230 left)
A92

X, X, Hero B $40…

Am I sizing too small? I don’t expect flop folds, but I have a terrific draw and am fairly indifferent to calls or folds. (Getting the pot HU, I can also win through aggression; many hands don't make it to showdown in this game.)

… C, C, F

Turn
Turn $181 ($190 left)
4

X, Hero ???

I spiked the nuts and still have a nut redraw so I really want to get value. SPR is 1. Betting less than pot feels a bit transparent but perhaps worth considering, since potting seems fairly likely to take it down. Any reasonable-sized bet is going to make it fairly easy to call the river. E.g. $90 HPB called once makes $360 with $100 left.
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
05-17-2023 , 09:29 PM
I bet $100 with the following plan:

Spades, 3s, 5s, and board pairs are scare cards. Everything else is clean. Any time it's checked to me or I'm first to act on a clean card I will shove for value.

If only button calls ($381 pot, $90 left)
Check-call scare cards to induce a bluff. Getting 5:1 this seems like the only reasonable river play.

If only BB calls turn, and he checks, shove clean cards and check down scare cards. (Or should I bet a river spade for thin value given the huge odds laid?)
... and BB bets river, it's actually a shitty spot given my read and his position. Because my read is very weak I still should crying call getting 5:1. And expect to cry.

If both call turn ($481, $90 left)
... and BB donks the river. This is the toughest spot of all. I can't imagine him just firing into two opponents and it's quite possible button overcalls to beat me anyway. Seems like a fold.
... , button bets the river, and BB calls -- easy fold
... , button bets the river, and BB folds -- easy call getting > 6:1.



Results don't matter but here they are.
Spoiler:


I bet $100, both call.

River
$481, $90 left
3

Literally the worst card in the deck except maybe board pairs.
X, Hero X, Button AI for $120 or so, BB F, Hero calls within a few seconds.

Button shows 99xx flopped middle set turned into a bluff and MHIG. Button seemed really surprised that I called with a wheel there.

Also my reconstruction is off because the pot was more like $450 but who cares.
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
05-18-2023 , 09:24 AM
I don't like varying bet sizes by hand strength. I would bet the same amount on the flop that I would with a set. (That doesn't mean I would pot it.) I would bet the same amount on the turn that I would with non-straight hands that I would bet.
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
05-19-2023 , 04:54 AM
I think a gto bot just ships it here but we might do better betting half pot and shoving all non spades. I don’t expect many folds for that price and some hands might call drawing near dead or completely dead even.
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
05-21-2023 , 06:33 PM
Semantic nitpick: if the BB is $2 and the bringin is $5, it is impossible to limp in.

I've played in games with this structure, and the straddle, if allowed, is always $10. But then the action doesn't make sense.

Only strategy point, other than the usual "fold pre," is that the turn sizing you used only makes some kind of sense if you have a lot of history with villains and solid reads. In a vacuum, it's just dumb.
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
05-21-2023 , 08:25 PM
I liked the sizing on the flop.... until you hit the awkward SPR on the turn where you have tip money left after a PSB. I think deeper your sizing would be perfect for 3 streets of attack. I can't see myself not trying to GII with this hand, so might as well pot the flop and shove non-pairing turns
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
05-22-2023 , 02:57 AM
The previous betting has led to you making a pot sized bet on the turn, feels like your only choice.

Betting small just gives villains with boat draws a chance to draw with less risk, while you are stuck making a crying call on any river.

Whereas many players drawing dead or thin will call the full bet because they see their downside is capped with non-nuts.

There is a very very thin slice of villains you can only get value from with an underbet.
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
05-22-2023 , 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Sagebrush
Semantic nitpick: if the BB is $2 and the bringin is $5, it is impossible to limp in.

I've played in games with this structure, and the straddle, if allowed, is always $10. But then the action doesn't make sense.
Sorry, I've gotten used to the structure at my local room and forget how weird the straddle rule is. Blinds $1-2. Entering the pot is minimum $5. Max raise first in is $15.

So far so good but the straddle rule is bizarre: "Straddle" of $5, only, optionally posted UTG or if declined, optionally OTB. So it's just a "limp" in the loose sense of entering an unraised pot for the minimum. Naturally it does confer last action.



Thanks for the suggestions. I want to engage with "fold pre" later when I have time.
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
05-22-2023 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
Thanks for the suggestions. I want to engage with "fold pre" later when I have time.
When you are not experimenting, what would you normally do with this hand?

Putting any money with this hand in is definitely on the loose side, that's not automatically a bad thing. But this raise amount does seem off, you're enticing callers with a hand that is going to struggle multi-way. edit: and the stacks don't seem deep enough (50x bring-in) to make your experiments pay off enough.

It's also not a raising hand if you know the table has a lot of callers for any amount. Based on the action, it sounds like you've got a crew of loose-passive preflop players.

Last edited by grant2; 05-22-2023 at 03:23 PM.
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
05-22-2023 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grant2
When you are not experimenting, what would you normally do with this hand?
Good question. In this spot and stack depth, play it if I consider it likely to be unraised. Marginally play/dump it if I expect button or blinds to put in a large raise 50% of the time (in aggregate). Dump it if there's a chance of multiple raises behind me with less than AA.

Quote:
Putting any money with this hand in is definitely on the loose side, that's not automatically a bad thing. But this raise amount does seem off, you're enticing callers with a hand that is going to struggle multi-way.

It's also not a raising hand if you know the table has a lot of callers for any amount. Based on the action, it sounds like you've got a crew of loose-passive preflop players.
Agreed with every bit of this.

I don't think of this as a good hand (despite an LO8 background, ha). I lean toward finding excuses to play suited aces; opponents often chase naked lower flush draws. The wheel wrap potential and single broadway card are enough to push me toward playing it in "optimistic" settings. Position helps a lot here, although I might still play it UTG if the table seems extraordinarily limpy, as it often does.

Since I'm so often short-stacking, I really have to avoid putting in 10% or more of my stack on essentially a one-dimensional hand. Conversely if it's 5% or less, especially IP, the tremendous flush IO seems to justify it.




In a tougher game, I might try to pot it pre to get HUIP and then probably plan to cbet good flops (showdown value or draws) and perhaps very distant grazes, like a BDNFD, deuce, or four. I would check back hands like top pair or gutshots that want to show down or draw cheaply, as well as complete whiffs. Let me know if I'm getting some of that wrong. But that is so far from what I'm playing now that it doesn't seem to matter at the tables.

Last edited by AKQJ10; 05-22-2023 at 03:34 PM.
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote
06-05-2023 , 10:59 AM
1) Not sure how max raise is 'to' $15 when UTG+1 has entered in front of you AND YOU"RE PLAYING PLO, but PLO can be different per room for sure. You also should have 235 left if you 'bet' (opened to) $15, not 'raised' $15 to $20 total.

2) I think the Flop bet is fine, perhaps $45 to make sure you can go all-in if called in two spots as you were here.

3) PLO betting is both about value and equity denial. You have the current nuts, but are vulnerable to both flush draws and higher straights .. and possibly any set/2 pr combos. I'm not giving any discounts to Players on draws when I'm holding the nuts and my stack is near pot. Once the first V calls Turn the next is getting 4 to 1 .. which pretty much prices in 80% of most PLO holdings that have any connection to the Flop. You are choosing to ride the variance train here rather than the express train.

4) Your opponents don't know you opened 'wide' .. would you play AAxx (or other parts of your normal range) the same way as you did here?

While I'm a big fan of 'not' betting pot every time we bet I skew less and less to it when shallow .. and I hope you consider yourself shallow here, otherwise your game is vastly different than 'my' game.

Nice win .. not sure if you won less or more with this line AP collecting two callers OTT and you needed a bluff OTR to collect more. But as I stated I'm of the 'if they're calling this, then they're calling that' mentality when I'm basically only being called by better OTR and/or I'm pretty much forced to call off getting 6 to 1. GL
<img -2(-5) Turn nuts with nut redraw, but do any of my bet sizes make sense? Quote

      
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