Hi

Played on Ignition. No significant reads on villain, and we’re about 100 bb’s eff.

I have KdKs7d7h

Villain pot opens in UTG, I call from MP and everyone else folds.

Flop: 3d 3c 4d

Villain bets half-pot, I call

Turn: 9h

Villain again bets half-pot, I call

River: 4s

Villain bets 3/4-pot, I timebank tank and call

Linecheck?

Thinking of the hand afterwards, is a potential better line here to raise/gii on the flop? I figure there should not be too many 3’s in the UTG opening range and the main hand I’d be in trouble against is AA with the nfd, which is only a narrow part of villains range?…. Maybe not such a narrow part if they gii on the flop?….

Cheers

Hi,

there are players who habitually apply aggression for 3 streets even when they missed completely, but absent a read I would say the chance he has Aces is higher than the chance he is bluffing with air.

That being said, except aces and air, anything he is (value) betting with beats you, i.e. a 3 or a 4 or 99.

So how often does he have:

a) AA
b) is bluffing with air
c) has a 3 or a 4
d) has 99

even if d) is close to 0%, he has 3 or 4 a percentage of the time, and you just have to assess how often he has AA and how often he would take his bluff so far and bet 3 streets with something else.

I would personally fold the turn.

I would 3bet this preflop. The river is clearly a fold - he is betting into us 3 times and we can have all the trips/full houses and block diamonds. Turn is a closer decision - does he bet bare AA here? The problem with the turn is there are no natural bluffs really since you block diamonds. I also think he doesn't bet worse pairs here (QQ/JJ) so his turn range is all better hands and you just have enough equity to call against bare AA I think. Turn might be a fold as well.

Interesting hand. River call is probably ok as played against villain. It's not an amazing spot to bet aa for value anyway, especially if he doesn't want to risk a raise, and might be a bit polar if he puts you on many possible drawing hands.

Hero hand seems better as a call than raise both flop and turn, but i can certainly find raises against the right types of villains.

Hey

Thanks for responding. My logic in calling had a lot to do with considering a couple of things:

- chances of villain having a 3 being small given they opened from UTG

- I discounted AA because my (limited) experience in small stakes PLO on ignition is that non-spaztards don’t triple a bare AA unimproved.

- similar to my AA logic a villain shouldn’t have double barreled a bare 4, though i suppose a 4 with some other draw like the nfd would make some sense

With the above said, yes, my experience so far has shown that the vast majority of the time when average villains triple (certainly OOP) they have it, which is why I time-tanked on calling despite his line not making much sense to me.

Villain also could have back into a full house ott with some 99 hand.

Certainly happy to still receive feedback/criticism on my logic.

Yeah I would agree that lower pairs probably don’t barrel turn.

So, regarding your comment about villain’s range being all better hands to bet the turn, you don't think villain can bet the turn with some nfd’s, lower flushes or other combo draws?

I don't know how the population plays but I think I'd call the turn, although there's really not many natural bluffs. You block diamonds, I guess he could have 56 although you do block some of those combos that would raise pre (567). Now by the river this is essentially close to the bottom of your range and you're still uncapped yet he's betting into you. Can't imagine considering anything but folding the river.

I like this hand, but I think it's hard because it doesn't matter. I'll explain.

I think on the flop you can call, as you did, and you can also raise 1/2 pot, and I don't think it matters which play you make and both are fine and you could probably mix them. You need to be raising some boards like this with hands like yours. I think, with diamonds, I lean more towards call. If I had naked K I lean more towards raise, but both plays are valid.

On the turn - raising makes less sense and is less congruent with the total action, but you simply cannot fold so you have one action remaining.

River. You are likely indifferent between your decisions here. Flophero likes a mix of calling and folding, leaning towards calling. Your opponent likely has AA, it's just his most likely holding from a raise UTG, especially when you have KK yourself, but he can also have a 4 or a 3 (Ace + two broadway single suited is a raise UTG, so any 3 or 4 is definitely possible). He can also have the occasional 56 and diamonds are of course also quite likely. You can run the percentages a bit and see this.

Now, up until the river I think his hand is very consistent with AA but you have so much equity it doesn't matter - you have to get to the river. But now, is AA as likely? He should be check/calling a lot on this river IMO, so I would weight him more towards bluff / 4 and I think he has more bluff combos then 4 or 3 or 99, but i also think people bluff less often than they should.

This is a very long way of saying I don't think it matters much what you do here. I probably lean towards call, as you did, but I think folding is fine as well. I think it's a spot where villain becomes naturally balanced due to the run out and typical player tendencies and I think you have a threshold calling hand and that's just the way this hand played out.