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07-20-2018 , 12:14 PM

iLoveLuck

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 15

Razer has 35%VPIP, 10%PFR out of 20 hands played.
Limpers have weak hands.

Poker Stars, $1.32 Buy-in (40/80 blinds, 10 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37935114

MP1: 1,254 (15.7 bb)
MP2: 1,466 (18.3 bb)
MP3: 2,207 (27.6 bb)
CO: 1,620 (20.3 bb)
BTN: 1,615 (20.2 bb)
Hero (SB): 1,558 (19.5 bb)
BB: 2,396 (30 bb)
UTG+2: 1,384 (17.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T

2 folds, MP2 calls 80, MP3 calls 80, CO raises to 520, 5 folds

Spoiler:

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I would 3Bet jam that if he didnt raise that big. Villain raise size just screams he is all in no matter what. Its either slight +EV or big -EV imo.

My Friends would you fold with me in that spot?

Last edited by iLoveLuck; 07-20-2018 at 12:16 PM. Reason: bad english

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07-20-2018 , 06:41 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

I’d shove without even thinking about it. There’s not much to analyze. You have a strong hand which is ahead of his range with dead money.

You’ll get blinded out before you find a better spot to get your money in.

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07-20-2018 , 09:31 PM

iLoveLuck

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 15

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

You dont really know if we are ahead of his range in that spot. Dead money yes. I need more opinions.

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07-20-2018 , 10:26 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by iLoveLuck

You dont really know if we are ahead of his range in that spot. Dead money yes. I need more opinions.

Why, because his range could be anything? Maybe I should say we're way ahead of a reasonable range there, and ahead of the average player's range there.

Every person that chooses to reply is going to say this is a trivial shove. It's not a close spot. In game I would actually be excited to see this action ahead of me when holding TT.

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07-20-2018 , 11:37 PM

iLoveLuck

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 15

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

What is the highest pocket pair you would fold in that situation instead ? You might be right. Pocket tens are too strong. I have to think and analyze this spot one more time.

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07-21-2018 , 08:29 AM

clapclap

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 342

99 is close but i would fold probably, and not too excited to have TT when you mostly run into AK/AQ/JJ, but there is always the chance of CO showing up with some random nonsense
whats good for you is QQ+ is quite likely to raise for other sizing
whats bad for you is lower pocket pairs are quite likely to just shove

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07-21-2018 , 12:02 PM

iLoveLuck

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 15

Quote:

Originally Posted by clapclap

Feelings aside I really doubt its even +EV in long term. This might be one of those spots regs think is standard shove but is hidden mistake. Most likely doesnt show some random nonsense according to his data and raise size. It really leads me towards fold because if 50% of villains in that situation with those stats have looser range than expected then its a still a tight one and we can expect only small +EV. If 50% of the villains are tighter than we expect then we are in a big -EV situation. So large sample size we are losing money by shoving in that spot.

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07-21-2018 , 02:50 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

77 is probably the worst pair I fold.
20 hands is only enough to tell he’s not a maniac. We have no idea of his real PFR.

I’m not sure how to read into his sizing. It really doesn’t make sense for any hands. In his spot I’d probably jam hands that are good enough to jam but don’t play great postflop when a smaller size gets called. Strong hands If raise smaller trying to extract more chips from the limpets.

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07-22-2018 , 04:56 PM

mckrogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 6,495

He has 99, JJ, AQ and AK in his range here. Now you decide wether TT is good.

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