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Worst SNG streak 9-man

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02-26-2018 , 07:10 PM

Jspencer21

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 83

Just had my worst streak I've ever had playing 9-man SNG's. Lost 16 straight. It has a chance to get worse when I play later tonight.
Just curious if anybody has any horror stories to make me feel better.

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02-26-2018 , 07:34 PM

Knittle

adept

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 828

16 without a single cash?

That's pretty big. Might need to reevaluate your play.

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02-26-2018 , 07:39 PM

Jspencer21

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 83

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knittle

16 without a single cash?

That's pretty big. Might need to reevaluate your play.

When I was running bad I make a couple of bad plays but mostly lost getting tons of coolers.
I'm a winning player over 1K games, 41.8% ITM

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02-26-2018 , 07:48 PM

Knittle

adept

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 828

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jspencer21

When I was running bad I make a couple of bad plays but mostly lost getting tons of coolers.
I'm a winning player over 1K games, 41.8% ITM

I don't know if it's out of ordinary as it looks to me so I'll let someone else comment but it seems pretty odd.
You need to finish top 33% to cash and zero cashes in that sample is possible if you run incredibly bad but yeah.

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02-27-2018 , 09:41 AM

Ronny Mahoni

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,452

16 games is nothing. Even I had worse.

The worst I can remember was another player, who also used to post here, had I think over 50 games without cashing. And iirc back then there was even someone claiming that he had 100+ games without cashing.

Basically, you will experience worse streaks if you keep playing, unless you have a sick ROI.

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02-27-2018 , 03:30 PM

Jspencer21

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 83

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronny Mahoni

It got worse. When it was all said and done I went 18 in a row then got a 3rd place, then went 9 losses in a row. Hopefully today will be a lot better.

Thanks for making me feel better though.

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02-28-2018 , 03:12 AM

mckrogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 6,495

Which stakes are you playing?

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03-04-2018 , 03:38 AM

Jspencer21

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 83

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckrogh

Which stakes are you playing?

I'm playing micro stakes on ACR. The 3.30's regular and some turbo.

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03-04-2018 , 04:30 PM

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronny Mahoni

16 games is nothing. Even I had worse.

+1

Way back in the day I used to only 4 table and had an ROI around 30% (over only something like 2000-3000 games) and still had a few streaks around 15-20 games without cashing.

With the numbers of games people play these days, and the much tougher competition, I would guess streaks like this are not uncommon at all.

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03-05-2018 , 06:24 AM

#10

NiallOBrien

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 202

How many games have you played altogether? I've played 12,000 games and my max losing streak is 25 which isn't much. You'll definitely experience worse in your playing career. 16 games is nothing. I was looking at the stats of one of the top HU Hyper turbo pro's on Sharkscope recently. He had played 100,000+ games and his worst losing streak was 140. His second worst was 120. It's incomprehensible how bad you would have to run, and this guy is a very successful player. GL

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03-06-2018 , 07:27 PM

#11

Top Pig

adept

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 772

I regularly go 50-60 cashless

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03-07-2018 , 07:39 PM

#12

LeaksSuck

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859

Quote:

Originally Posted by Top Pig

I regularly go 50-60 cashless

After editing graphs.
Ragz > math ; numbers lie!

Explanation: Ragz is non for editing his graphs since years and raging over all ppl who are not believing his story. It's a fun read, Tiltbook, his blog etc.

@OP: Software SwongSim answers your questions about how likely what streak is at which ROI. User "Max Cut" created it, it's great

Last edited by LeaksSuck; 03-07-2018 at 07:45 PM.

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03-12-2018 , 10:22 AM

#13

Rusemandingo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,064

Quote:

Originally Posted by NiallOBrien

Did you filter for just HU? The chances of someone who loses less than 50% of the time losing 140 times in a row (in a 140 game sample) is astronomically improbable. Like way bigger than 1 in a trillion.

Fwiw in 208k 9m played at 3.4% avg ROI my longest losing streak is 25 games.

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03-14-2018 , 04:36 PM

#14

misk

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 199

Over 1,626 9-man games, my max losing streak is 11 games. My max cashing streak is 8 games. My max winning streak is 3 games.

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03-14-2018 , 09:16 PM

#15

LeaksSuck

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859

Assuming equal skill (not true, regs are more skilled than avg. thus their probability of not-cashing is smaller than 2/3 making it even more unlikely): Over a sample of say 100,000, if I'm not mistaken (pls correct if I'm wrong), the probability of that happening once is:

1-[[1-(2/3)^49]^[100000-49]] = 0.000235 = 0.0235%

First term:
Probability for a streak being >=50 games without cashing for a single game

Second Term:
Amount of games we're looking at, minus 49 because we can't have a 50+ losing streak within the first 49 games.

So, things like that happen "regularly" to ragz, yeah ok

Last edited by LeaksSuck; 03-14-2018 at 09:28 PM.

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03-17-2018 , 06:55 AM

#16

NiallOBrien

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 202

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rusemandingo

Yeah I think you're correct. Must not have filtered for HU. Just had a quick look on sharkscope and the worst streak I could find for HU hypers was around 23.

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03-19-2018 , 01:35 PM

#17

bachconnelly86

centurion

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 100

Just a 16 streak myself this weekend. It really does make you question everything about your play, but it will turn around. Winning 4 of the next 6 helped

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03-23-2018 , 12:24 AM

#18

StevenPoke

adept

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 1,143

Had 18 losses in row playing the 25+2.5 Triple - Ups on Bovada several years ago. Loss 3 to end a session and then lost the first 15 of the next. Took an hour break to untilt and decided to chase more losses. I went on to cash 14 if the next 15 that day. Variance is a hell of a thing.

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03-29-2018 , 09:48 AM

#19

sisqo

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 11

Quote:

Originally Posted by bachconnelly86

Just a 16 streak myself this weekend. It really does make you question everything about your play, but it will turn around. Winning 4 of the next 6 helped

How long does it take to fill seats and how quickly can you multi-table?

I'm on ACR and as usual, most of the time it takes ages to fill tables. Best of luck to you.

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03-30-2018 , 04:40 AM

#20

Thrash370

See my staking thread

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,195

80,000 sng sample size in 9 mans.

I have had 1 22 losing streak, 2 21 losing streaks and 2 20 game losing streaks

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03-31-2018 , 01:40 PM

#21

bachconnelly86

centurion

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 100

Quote:

Originally Posted by sisqo

How long does it take to fill seats and how quickly can you multi-table?

I'm on ACR and as usual, most of the time it takes ages to fill tables. Best of luck to you.

No time at all. Global has healthy sit n gos. The 20’s run once every 5 minutes or so.

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04-01-2018 , 09:15 AM

#22

sisqo

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 11

Quote:

Originally Posted by bachconnelly86

No time at all. Global has healthy sit n gos. The 20’s run once every 5 minutes or so.

Good deal. I was watching them fill up this week. Seemed pretty quick. Thanks.

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