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Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tourney Nearing Bubble Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tourney Nearing Bubble

04-29-2018 , 10:14 AM
A hand occurred yesterday that I've been thinking about. I'm more of a cash game than a tournament player and still struggle a little bit understanding how much I should be willing to risk a substantial portion of my chips in this kind of spot. And I'm especially inexperienced when it comes to bounty tournaments.

I don't remember the specifics as well as I would like but assume the following:
$20 + $2 NLO8 tournament with a $5 bounty prize for each KO
136 players, 29 remaining, 21 paid
Pay out structure that gives barely over buyin back for first few cashes and awards $300 at top (i.e., relatively top heavy)
Our stack (15.5k) is situated roughly 20/29, with a handful of stacks very short.

7 handed table, UTG+2 short stack open shoves 8.9k at 1k/2k. Folds to us in the SB and we have Ac2hJhTh. BB has 19k.

Hero..?

EDIT: Assume that we are +chipEV by at least several percent against villain's range (in this case we need 39.9% to be +chipEV and we are a small favorite over all A2 hands, a 41.5% dog against all AA hands, and a decent favorite, around 56%, over all A35 hands).

My gut feeling is that we can't fold w/ this many players away from the $ in a spot we are guaranteed to be +chipEV by a few percent against villain's range. If you agree, is there any point at which the # of remaining players makes it a fold assuming losing the hand would place us among the shortest stacks?

I am going to post this hand in the O8 forum as well, but I'm specifically interested in hearing about what our risk tolerance should be in these kinds of spots where we stand to win the bounty and chip up a bit but if we lose this pot we will be among the shortest stacks w/ the bubble approaching.

Last edited by karamazonk; 04-29-2018 at 10:27 AM.
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