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Is this tournament beatable?

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10-06-2017 , 10:14 AM

Remuslives

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 2

There's a daily $45 tournament at my local card room. The room take 15.6%. There are about 20 entrants every time so it runs two tables. Levels are 15 minutes long starting with 150 big blinds. Players are not that good, but a few have a decent idea of when to push/fold as stacks get short. I'm pretty certain I'm the best or one of the best players.

My question: Is this tournament beatable?

Also: How much of a sample size do I need to indicate that I am winning at these tournaments?

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10-06-2017 , 11:01 AM

LeaksSuck

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859

Yes beatable if the blinds aren't increased to fast. If you do it for the fun of it it's cool, if u do it for they money, your best bet is doing sth else

Sample size: Too big to ever get it and dependent on what u mean. "Indicate I'm a winning player" --> Depends on the definition. Is 80% probability of making > zero bucks enough of an indication? Or is 95% probability of making a better hourly than at flipping burgers?

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10-06-2017 , 11:40 AM

Remuslives

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 2

Thanks for the reply! My goal is to use these tournaments to gain more experience playing live, while not hemorrhaging money. Eventually I plan to transition to cash and/or tournaments with larger buy-ins.

This card room is close to where I live, but doesn't have NL cash games. Other casinos with NL cash are an hour plus drive away.

I guess I just want something like an 80% certainty that I have a positive expectation, so how much of a sample would I need for that?

If I'm up 30 buy-ins after 20 tournaments what degree of certainty would I have that I'm beating it?

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10-06-2017 , 01:13 PM

LeaksSuck

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859

I don't play live regularly, but from what I've read all game types are a lot softer live than online at the same stakes. Fwiw from the one 100€ tourney I played live, the std procedure was like 5 limpers pre, someone bluffcaught my 2x pot overbet of a rivered nut-straight with 3rd pair in a 5handed checked-thru pot. So...

But you can't multitable and the hands/hour are a lot lower due to dealer doing actual work instead of virtual dealer giving cards in <1 sec. So if the hourly is higher for some whatever game comparison is hard to say.

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10-06-2017 , 03:35 PM

clapclap

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 342

What is the avg stack in BBs at the final table/5 handed/3 handed usually? If it isn't a flipflest, you can be sure to beat it for decent ROI. For certainty questions google pokerdope variance calculator and play around with that.

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10-07-2017 , 12:50 PM

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

Your level of certainty should come from watching how the others play rather than statistics. If they play like classic live fish and you are reading books / strategy forums and implementing the things you're learning then you can be pretty certain relatively quickly.

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10-09-2017 , 01:27 PM

2pairsof2s

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,608

You may start the tournament with 150 BB's, but by the time you get close to the bubble of say 4 or 5 people paid there's probably less than 150 big blinds left in the whole game. Any time the average stack at the table is only 10 or 20 BB's, it is a flipfest. Not that there is no skill involved, just that it becomes a high variance push/fold game.

It would be impossible to play enough games live to filter out the variance. But that doesn't mean that you can't beat it. It means that the time you have to outplay your opponents is the early stages, when everyone is deep. The skill is in getting to the push/fold stages with a dominant chip stack.

Last edited by 2pairsof2s; 10-09-2017 at 01:33 PM.

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10-09-2017 , 06:25 PM

Pop.

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 423

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeaksSuck

If you do it for the fun of it it's cool, if u do it for they money, your best bet is doing sth else

^
this

thats all you need to know in a nutshell...

Last edited by Pop.; 10-09-2017 at 06:34 PM.

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