Icmizer is saying this is a fold and I would not even bring this into question were it not for UTG's stats.
He/she is a losing reg at these stakes with a large sample size.

Could I not assume such a player would be raise shoving worse?



https://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#wTNBdK

partypoker, $4.64 + $0.36 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 (6 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

Player9 (UTG): 1,099 (22 bb)
Player1 (UTG+1): 1,426 (29 bb)
Player2 (MP): 1,669 (33 bb)
Player3 (MP+1): 1,371 (27 bb)
Player4 (LP): 1,639 (33 bb)
Hero (CO): 1,346 (27 bb)
Player6 (BU): 1,782 (36 bb)
Player7 (SB): 1,472 (29 bb)
Player8 (BB): 1,696 (34 bb)

Pre-Flop: (129) Hero (Hero) is CO with A♥ Q♣
Player9 (UTG) raises to 110, 4 players fold, Hero (CO) 3-bets to 250, Player6 (BU) calls 250, 2 players fold, Player9 (UTG) 4-bets to 1,093 (all-in), Hero (CO) 5-bets to 1,340 (all-in), 1 fold

Flop: (2,565) 4♥ 7♦ 4♦ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (2,565) T♦ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (2,565) A♦ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 2,565

Showdown:
Hero (CO) shows A♥ Q♣ (two pair, Aces and Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 25%, Flop: 20%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

Player9 (UTG) shows K♠ A♣ (two pair, Aces and Fours - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 75%, Flop: 80%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

Player9 (UTG) wins 2,565

AQo isn't a 3b/get in vs a 22bb UTG at bb50 in any scenario except vs the wildest doylie. Depends on HUD stats but on partyfascists.com HUD's are not allowed so AQo here is pretty much a default fold pre. As played fold to the shove. Flat pre otherwise. Reg's ROI is irrelevant.

Could you elaborate as to why?
My line of thinking was that because Villain is such a consistent loser in the game that his ranges would be obv less than optimal, hence why I thought, albeit wrong that he would get in worse in such a situation.

I am a little rusty as I have been out of playing for some years and I am just starting back up but would welcome some commentary about players roi's not being relevant/being relevant.

Cheers.

It's not that the ROI is irrelevant, but there's a big difference between say -8% ROI (breakeven in game, loses to rake) and -50% ROI. Even though you may read the first player as "bad" they still aren't likely to be going too crazy UTG.

In this specific situation, whatever you think their opening range is, what % of that are they going to 4bet all in when their UTG raise faces a 3bet and a call?

Lots of losing players are losing because they are too passive / call too much. Think the guy who plays A8 and calls off 3 streets when he flops an A. That same calling station / losing player overall still has a very strong range when he 4bets all in preflop.

Has this player been playing lots of hands up to this point very wildly? Just based on there still being 9 players in the tourney with no stacks even over 2k I'd guess no. If he's not the specific type of wild losing player, then getting in AIPF here can be a big mistake.

@velocity

Thank you for the detailed reply and analysis.

I can see how this is a losing play, even given my notes on V.
I put too much weight on the ROI and neglected the basics off his ranges.

Cheers!

Velocity - explained it perfectly!

After the very strong 4Bet against a 3Bet and call, this is a clear fold.
Without HUD it is of course more difficult to find out his preflop ranges.
"He is a loosing reg" it is not enough. There are a lot of loosing players with a tight UTG OR range and very tight 4Bet Range.

Normally I flat AQo pre in this spot. Its hard for me to find a fold here against this 2,2BB OR.

Cuz he could be a losing 10/8 nit or a losing 45/38 loony. Without HUD you don't know unless you can pay close attention to one table.

Closer to a fold than a 3bet. I think its an easy flat if the sb/bb are loose passive. If blinds are aggro or nits just fold here. I think AJs >> AQo in this spot, and probably KQs is too. Our flatting range should be pretty narrow.