Hey Guys,

So last night on my session, I had several spots that brought up several questions into my head about the correct play, or in some cases taking perhaps an option that longe term might be a bit more +EV but will also bring a lot more variance.

Say you are in the BU, with 25BB and have K10s in an unopened pot. The blinds are tight say, 23/16 and 20/12 and both have 10-11BB, supposedly this would be an easy push since our effective stack is 10-11BB, However I feel that while this might be a +EV move, that folding or Raising might avoid the variance of when we end up getting called and lose that hand,

Since K10s it's actually kind of a good hand in that position, other one that happened to me was in the SB with 20BB holding 89s. VS a BB with 10BB.is this a shove too?
Are you always taking this lines?

What are your views in this?
Appreciate any help you might be able. To give.

It's kinda hard to judge without the full hand history. Do you know how to copy a hand from your tracker into the forum?

Yeah, but this is not a hand analyzes, Its just trying to figure out if you always Push on those spots being the correct EV Play

Since these are spots that come up often Id suggest you check Nash ranges for various kinds of situation to get a better idea of what you can shove in an equilibrium. And also how profitable these are, because if you want to raise, it has to be better than shoving.

Your hands are a bit vague, but both situations sound like decent shoves to me. Where as 89s BvB is better than KTs from BTN.

If you steal as a bigger stack you can expect quite a few 3bets, but can still be better than shoving. When in doubt, I would always try a steal and see how the opponents react.

As far as variance goes. Variance, in the long run, will be lowest if you always take the most +EV lines.

No, not always, but I never openfold them either

Maybe ur trying to avoid variance in this exact moment, but in the long run if u do +EV moves variance will not be that big of a deal.

Do not overthink spots that are pretty easy, specially in shove spots, if u have to shove just shove, in the end if it's +EV u will be doing fine.

Unless they are good regs you shove like crazy down to 90 percent trust me

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This is a math equation. An Expected Value (EV) equation. One that I'd recommend you figure out how to build the model and the variables (hand ranges, probability of calls, probability of winning with no showdown) to answer. IMO, your figuring this out on your own will advance your personal poker knowledge and confidence.

Once you've got the equation figured out, bring back into the forum and have a good discussion on hand ranges for calling. Good luck.

Thanks guys,

I understand it being +EV , variance or not, in the long run we ll be winning, but I ve just seen +EV shoves being called , and it seems at least where i play, Villains are calling way to wide , which made me rethink a bit, but overall yeah I am now shoving more often just not those hands that are close to a fold, despite technically being still +EV, because taking Villains calling range into account i dont think they are +EV anymore.

Well it can depend. Are there antes? How many players are left? What is avg stack size? What are payouts? What are you reads on villains in blinds and how will they react to different strategies? What is the overall toughness and setup of the table and what is your future expectation?

There's a reason people post specific hand histories.

Realizing that that not all 25bb btn vs 10bb blinds spots are created equal is gonna be the first leak you need to plug. Anytime you are thinking about a hand, all those things i mentioned should be the first things you think about before deciding how to construct ranges and strategies.

Id say if youre gonna be breaking down this hands into jamming part of your range and minraising part of your range, kts should prob go in the jam. Its too strong to r/f and most likely not strong enough to r/c. Youre usually going to want to r/f hands that are just on the margins of your overall playable range, just as t9o, j9o, j7s, 86s. And then balance that with a r/c range that is super nutted. Whether you need to equally balance or weight towards either being nutted or light with your nonjam range is going to depend on the specific situation and villains. Also deciding which hands to minraise is going to depend on whether villains are more likely to 3bet or call when they dont fold.

But then if it's a super soft table with moderate icm implications (winning 10bbs helps you a lot less than losing 10bbs hurts you) you might go the smallball route and limp in place of a lot of your minraises.

So in short, no. Jamming in these spots in not always the optimal play.

Thanks a lot Rusemandingo , Awesome answer.