Quote:
Originally Posted by Li0nheart
Not super sure about the turn call, might be a shove there but i think Jx calls far too often
Is far too often just your understatement for "always"? lol
I actually really like the thought process. It's a really creative bluff... like one you'd see on a youtube/podcast hand breakdown that a pro played vs a pro, but I don't know how well it flies in $3 games. The hands you're targeting are hands that are hard to fold for many players. I guess it depends on the villain. If he's shown to be scared of MUB and fold on every scare card, sure. The thing is, you're taking a polarized line vs (what should be) an already polarized range (again depends on villain; maybe if he value bets bigger and this is a capped/block bet sizing for him). If he is doing this with just straights and flushes, he can easily call the flushes, and decide the straights based on blockers. Makes it too easy for him to play perfectly against this move.
As to your blockers, you unblock AJhh and other AXhh like you said, but as to what you said about blocking KJ/JT... I thought that's what you think you are targeting to fold.... shouldn't you want to
unblock that? I don't get the value of your hand blockerwise on this runout.
End of the day it does suck to call or fold this, which makes it great to consider the option of raising, but it's also a tournament. Your ICM bump for taking this down is like 65%, but -100% when snapped. So you need him to fold even more than such a move at a cash game. Basically you need him to have played all his jacks like this on the river
AND not thrown flush draws in on the turn
AND fold those jacks on the river. It is possible, but it's asking a lot. It depends a lot on how you range him I guess, which like you said, is surely Jack heavy, but the board itself blocks a lot of his two broadway jack hands. I don't know how wide he's defending from SB. Maybe it's more with a big stack, but if so, this also gives him more JXhh for his range anyway. Agree donking flush draws seems weird, but so is donking in general (at least compared to how most hands play out). He could be a fish that has nut flush draw and top pair and doesn't want to have to suddenly lead river when it comes in/wants to set the price to see the river or heck even just take it down with that top pair now because "that queen made it scary and top pair is a good hand and who wants to see an even scarier river" (again this is just what I've seen from some players at these stakes; don't know the opponent). Conversely, he could be thinking and know you don't have a ton of jacks to start with from UTG open, and that ones like KJ/JJ might make prime hands to not even cbet flop anyway, and so he leads with a ton of his jacks plus some other hands which may or may not include flush draws based on his range advantage. Anyway, I'm kinda rambling. Definitely don't think definitively bad, just very high variance and relies on assumptions I at least wouldn't be confident in. Very interesting spot, though.