If you are making good decisions then you are winning money. Doesnt matter if you got sucked out or not, you made a good decision = you made money.

just keep playing and luck factor will balance, i had 0% and 474:1 of bad luck, but i had some good luck in other sessions

volume=balance

Thansk, I understand that luck and variance balance out, but my question still applies, at what point do you realise you're playing badly rather than it just being constant bad luck? Just played another session and again had constant suckouts - in fact the only one where I lost from behind was a shove of K9 in the SB which ran into KK in the BB, but that just feels completely standard now. Got to say this run is probably having a bad effect on my decision making.

Also, a related question, I find it difficult to call in the BB when I have a reg behind me pushing from the SB. I saw a hand earlier where a reg with over 15,000 games called on the bubble in the BB with 23 and claimed it was the right thing to do as the SB could be pushing with any 2 so the blinds made it a call - is this right??

The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Poker Stars $6.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t1095 M = 3.65
BB: t1860 M = 6.20
UTG: t3280 M = 10.93
CO: t4905 M = 16.35
Hero (BTN): t2360 M = 7.87

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BTN with 8 5
3 folds, SB raises to t1095 all in, BB calls t895

Flop: (t2190) 3 T 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t2190) Q (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t2190) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t2190
SB shows A 4 (high card Ace)
BB shows 2 3 (a pair of Threes)
BB wins t2190

I don't think there is an answer to your question that will give you the ability to identify run good/bad and play good/bad.
What you are asking for is far too abstract and complex to put in words.
It's based on experience and knowledge. If your knowledge about the game is limited and most of your decisions are based on a very high percentage of guessing, then it is harder to know whether you are playing good or bad or just running good or bad.
Review your games and you'll see if you are playing or running bad.

And I doubt you do understand variance. Check out these threads:
FAQ - 6. Variance, Downswings and Sample Size
A Post On Variance 12k $27s ROI & ITM Breakdown
Long Strat Post about Variance


The hand you posted is hilarious and beyond ******ed by 15k reg. I mean, think about it yourself. Even if villain has Any two cards and you have 32s, how can you ever be ahead if every single hand that villain has is better than yours?

this hand is sick...

I guess the point he was trying to make was that 32 is about 35% against a random hand - but that obviously isn't enough to make up for the relatively small blinds - maybe he was just embarassed about a misclick. Incidentally that hand is how I feel everything I do runs at the moment, but I guess that's just my bad mindset.

Thanks for the links on variance, I do feel I understand how long run bads can last, just still feel unsure as to how I'd be certain whether it was my play or my luck that was causing them (but I guess that's down to understanding of the game).

Thanks Coolmatt and Jurrasstoil for responding, but after getting your responses, you are probably right about my sample size not being large enough to say that I always lose. It just seems thaty I always get cracked on those hands, but in reality it is just like any other hand getting busted on the river.

I think I was worried about putting too much value in them, but I tend to play them as suggested. Thanks again, just wanting to improve where I can and lately it seems like every time I get those hands I am nervous to play them or end up in a losing situation when I do.

Poker is a game of discipline and it is hard sometimes. Try to play the same way AQ and don't be result oriented. The risk is that you get nervous and let say start limping with AQ in late position and then loose a big pot because one of the blinds hits 2 pairs with 75 and you don't know where you stand.

The hand below took place early on during a 9-man $1 STT on FTP (Hand 21) and I had gained the following information leading up to it:

The table dynamic is quite tight preflop with an average of 3 players seeing the flop. Most hands however are going to showdown as you would expect at this stake and this early in proceedings.

The villain is playing noticeably loose-aggressive and has assumed the role of table captain after eliminating an opponent within the first orbit.

BB is showing signs of being a maniac having lost a bunch of chips very early to a seemingly tight early position raiser, barreling all streets out of position after flopping a low pair.

My table image is perhaps a little too tight compared to the rest of the field. Up to this point I had won 3 pots, all at showdown with AKo, QQ and A8s which was blind vs blind. In addition to this I had shown that I was playing a patient small ball type game.

Full Tilt Poker $1 + $0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: t1320 M = 14.67
CO: t2345 M = 26.06
BTN: t920 M = 10.22
Hero (SB): t1560 M = 17.33
BB: t1495 M = 16.61
UTG: t1495 M = 16.61
UTG+1: t1115 M = 12.39
Villian: t3250 M = 36.11

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is SB with K Q
2 folds, MP1 raises to t120, 3 folds, Hero calls t90, BB calls t60

Flop: (t360) K 9 Q (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t360, MP1 raises to t900, Hero raises to t1440 all in, BB folds, MP1 calls t540

Turn: (t3600) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t3600) T (2 players - 1 is all in)


Given the all of this information was the villain correct to call my 3bet shove or can a case be made towards folding?

your flop 3bet shove is ok, your preflop is bad, just fold you are Out of position and playing a very difficult hand to play OOP against two players. Also, 3 players seeing the flop per hand with a maniac and a loose aggressive player is not a tight table

GL

Ordinarily I would be inclined to agree however it was fairly early in the tournament and they were not involved in every hand. In fact my assessment was made more on the cards they showed and what they had done with them rather than the number of hands they played.

Regarding KQ preflop. Again I tend to agree with you and would normally not get involved but the blinds were still very low and that I intended to check-fold had I not hit the flop hard.

I will definately give some thought to your comments but I am trying to look at the hand from both sides hence asking for opinions on whether the Villian was right to call.

if you say so...

Posting this one here as I guess for most people it might be obvious, but it's kind of intrigued me.

In my mind I'd exclude AA and probably KK from his range here as it would be such an odd thing to do with them, and that just about makes it a call with my JJ (according to the range I assign him in Wiz). He'd been playing pretty tight and I think this was his first shove Was I wrong to exclude those mentally at this stage? I've included the result as it shows I clearly was!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

UTG (t6400)
Hero (Button) (t1545)
SB (t2520)
BB (t3035)

Hero's M: 3.86

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
UTG bets t6375 (All-In), Hero calls t1520 (All-In), 2 folds

Flop: (t3440) 7, 6, 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t3440) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3440) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t3440

Results:
Hero had J, J (two pair, Jacks and nines).
UTG had A, A (two pair, Aces and nines).
Outcome: UTG won t3440

Thoughts appreciated

well, some regulars (when in presence of other regulars mostly) will try to play AA/KK exactly the same as any other shovable hand. in this example, eff stacks are 15bb, so theres no room for other play than shoving. wp by villain

Whats happening forum.

How dominant do you have to be before the all in with any hand mantra kicks in?

Is it different in the different games? I think I read somewhere it is 10 x the oppositions stack in nlh, but I wouldn't raise a guy all in with any 3 cards in razz when my door card is a king.

A starting point I completely made up - is it far off? Maybe it's just 10:1 in all games and I'm overanalysing.

Stack percentages allowing an all in with any hand HU

Deuce-Seven Triple Draw - 16:1 only with at least one card to a seven
Limit Holdem - 10:1
O8 - 6:1
Razz - 4:1 only with a smaller door card
Stud - 8:1
S8 - 8:1
PLO - 16:1
NLH - 10:1

Guys, I`m sorry for this not so good question, but after 450 DoNs w/ 10.7% ROI can I assume I`m a long term winner? (I mean after 10k tournaments?)

And am I right to assume I`m in a downswing if I play 195 tournaments having a 1.6% ROI after getting 10.7% in 450? Or should I understand that my actual ROI is not that good and it`s moving to the real number? IMO this is the real situation, could someone help me please?

Thank you in advance

I'm gonna do AMT's job! yeyy! please read the FAQ of the STTF, thank you

while having a VIP status > bronze doesn't necessarily mean you are a good player, i definitely feel that it shows you are at least somewhat competent. I wanted to get some opinions on whether or not you think it's a good idea to show your VIP status (silverstar+) for small stakes DONs.

thanks

I would think it's slightly +EV to have your Goldstar+ flashing. People will probably respect your raises a bit more in the earlier stage of the DON.

This depends alot from the different experience the different fish have with people showing stars.

I've experimented with a 2K sample with both, could be variance, but i had a better result in the 2k Sample with it showing.

some ppl get this data during play.

i don't know if that is okay with the terms and conditions...

during the break or after a game is the easiest and i'm pretty sure ok.

this is def. true with FTP

i take notes based on play in-game, i just type out in something like "Notepad" on my comp ppl HEM says ive been gathering a decent amount of hands on, i sharkscope their filtered stats after a session, then copy n paste their notes in

I've played various forms of poker and decided that sngs are the game for me. I currently play low stakes on micro gaming and have an ROI of 24%. I'm confident I will move up if I stick to sngs only. However, micro gaming skins suck for multi tabling, and the network sucks for getting constant and several games at any time.

I'm thinking of moving to FTP or Stars cos it's easier to multi-table, you can always get tons of games on the go, and the stakes go higher than any other network.

I'm wondering though, is there any point? The quality and number of regs seems much higher than other networks. Are they becoming swamped with so swamped that I'd be better just staying where I am?

Where are you?

You might want to take a look at this thread : http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36...e-sngs-745340/

He suggests Full Tilt if you don't intend to become Supernova, but Poker Stars if you plan of playing a very high volume of games. I'm gonna start grinding very soon on PS, PM me if you are serious and want a "MSN poker buddy" lol.