Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

STT Strategy Discussion about the play of single table tournaments.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-15-2017, 08:51 AM   #1
rickopatamus
stranger
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 5
Just a dad paying for college

I have a lot riding on this....

I used to 8 table $35 and $55 SNGs on Pokerstars until 2006, with 8% ROI over many many hundreds of games. Haven't played since.

My son's tuition is going to be more than the income from my regular job can support, and I'm considering playing again, to cover the shortfall, as it "appears" US players have options that include reasonable expectation of payouts etc. So..

1. best place (plenty of action & fish) to multi table SNGs at $10+1 buy-in (starting small). I realize there are threads elsewhere on 2p2 regarding where to play but I want to talk to STT guys about STTs exclusively.

2. Is ICM still the name of the game? I presume it is.
3. Software for tracking ROI, ITM% etc? (I use a Mac but can use PC if there is a compelling reason)
4. Anything different about playing now vs then that I should consider?

Thanks Guys...I'm nervous about this, but I'm desperate too
rickopatamus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2017, 07:18 PM   #2
ImLozano
newbie
 
ImLozano's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Mexico
Posts: 21
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Some things I know:
SNG Type: Regular (Slow) SNGs are on the decline, you can register to them across multiple sites but it wont be that easy.
PokerStars is the site for MTTSNGs (18, 45, 180, etc) that's for sure.
Goods sites I know for SNGs are PokerStars and 888
Software: PT4/HM2 (HUD and tracker) ICMIZER/SimpleNash (Review or train) TableNinja II (MultiTabling software)
Things to know: People are tougher! It won't be as easy as 2006. Don't let the situation get into your head while playing poker.


Sent from my XT1021 using Tapatalk
ImLozano is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2017, 08:07 PM   #3
sippin_criss
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
sippin_criss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: I just want the reg his money.
Posts: 11,645
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Hi dude,

WPN/Bovada/Ignition will be where you want to look. There will be traffic at WPN especially on weekends and during happy hours. I can't speak to the Bovada/Ignition traffic but I would assume that it would be less than WPN as WPN has piles of regs grinding for their weekly leaderboard.

You'll definitely want to use PT4 or HM2 so you have a HUD while grinding if you plan on taking it seriously.

There are still fish in the games today and probably will be forever, but the regs are a lot more sophisticated and you will likely get badly exploited by the better ones even at lower stakes. The game has changed quite a bit I'm not even sure where to begin.

I don't know what kind of earn you're expecting but considering how many hours it would take you to become a good reg again it is probably a better option for you to find an evening part time job. I also say that with the likelihood that you will experience a lot of bad downswings and kind of be left with your dick in your hand in a spot where it appears you cannot afford to have that happen.

I want to say one more time, don't do this. Being nervous and desperate is a horrible combination for a guy forcing it to happen for good pros, let alone guys who have been out of the game for 11 years. I really think you will be better off with a guaranteed $15/hr+ part time job. If you're deadset on it, set aside a few bucks and test out some $5 sng's on whichever US site you like the best and go from there.
sippin_criss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2017, 04:56 AM   #4
JohnRR
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 17
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Id reconsider it, as said before, games are shallower regarding fish and overall action is not sustainable, either way wish you luck!
JohnRR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2017, 02:36 PM   #5
rickopatamus
stranger
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 5
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Guys -

Thanks to all of you for giving me advice based on you experience and understanding of the problem. I thought I'd need more when I first posted, but now it looks like I'll only need an extra $500/mo starting in January. This should be doable even at low buy ins. So I'm going to give this a go. I'm going start with 30-50 buy ins for 10+1s and see where I am in a month (small sample I know) If I play 5 days a week, and can maintain an 8% ROI I should only need to play about 25-30 games a day, which I think is very doable when multitabling. I'll start with 2 tables at a time to see how things go,and consider adding after 30 days. If by Jan 1 I'm not averaging $25 per day (or if I've already busted out) then I'll consider more traditional routes. My son's working too, so between what I've paid, what I can make on STTs and what he's earning we should be ok. Besides. my mouse finger is twitching.

PS, I will be implementing most if not all of your advice regarding where to play and what software to use.
rickopatamus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2017, 06:37 PM   #6
isildur99
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 46
Re: Just a dad paying for college

great! hope you crush the tables and gl to your son in college!
isildur99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2017, 09:27 PM   #7
statmanhal
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 3,995
Re: Just a dad paying for college

I may seem overly critical but it is meant to help you see reality.

In just one day, what was a serious financial situation has turned into a manageable one with apparently no outside help (e.g. unexpected inheritance). To me, that casts some doubt on your analytical ability. That, along with the significant change in poker over the past 11 years (much, much more difficult to be a winner) suggests to me that there is little chance you can achieve anywhere near your 2006 level, which wasn’t that great to start with. You should be able to average $25 a day with a part-time job, whereas playing poker may result in a $25 day loss, which will only add to the problem.

I have a SNG analysis program. Assume because of the much higher level of competition today, your ROI is now 4%. With a $500 bankroll, here are the stats for the 10 man SNG you are considering assuming you place 1st 2nd, or 3rd with equal frequency when ITM.

For the Sit'n'Go structure entered - the following results were obtained:
With relative placing of 33.3%, 33.3% and 33.3% and a ROI of 4.0%,
you will finish in the money 34.3% of the time. Placing distribution is
First: 11.4% Second: 11.4% Third: 11.4%
For 100 tournaments, you expect to win $44.00.
Average profit per tournament is $0.44 with a std. dev. of $17.43
The 80.0% confidence interval for total winnings over 100 tournaments
is (-$179 to $267), equivalent to a 90.0% one sided lower limit of -$179
If you started with $500 and played 500 tourneys, bankrupt probability = 8.79%


Only you can decide if a nearly 9% chance of depleting your bankroll playing up to 500 tournaments is a risk you're willing to take.

Yeah, playing poker may be more fun than slinging hamburgers but not if your son’s college education depends on it and you hit a bad downswing as is almost certain.
statmanhal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2017, 10:10 PM   #8
rickopatamus
stranger
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 5
Re: Just a dad paying for college

So, I do appreciate that you took the time to consider and reply. To answer your first question, I may have overstated the problem originally, but I also got news that he is receiving a grant that he forgot to tell me about. He lives with his mother full time so I don't always get the whole story. Housing is all that he hasn't covered and it's about $500/mo starting in Jan.

As to the rest of your reply I guess Im unsure whether you are saying that I'm under bankrolled, or risking too much when variance could poke its ugly head at anytime. Fair enough, In the end, if I got backed into a corner I could sell a shotgun or some of my tools, and get the $500. So I'm still desperate, but the desperation is defined as I'd rather not sell my stuff or flip burgers and I used to do this quite lucratively, perhaps I can do it again. My best year btw was $22k part time. My ITM % was roughly 50% and my distribution was about 40% 1st 20% 2nd 40% 3rd (If you ain't first you're last)
rickopatamus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2017, 11:23 PM   #9
statmanhal
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 3,995
Re: Just a dad paying for college

My main point is that poker in 2017 is vastly harder than it was in 2006 to be a winner. Depending on poker to help your son is risky as my little quantitative analysis tried to illustrate. Starting small is smart but you definitely ought to have a backup plan if it doesn’t work out.

Good luck.
statmanhal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2017, 02:39 PM   #10
ICrushSNGs22
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 234
Re: Just a dad paying for college

The responses you got are pretty honest and I would share these opinions mostly.
On the other hand I can understand how you'd prefer to make that money from poker instead of doing a ****ty part time job alongside.
What overall people want to tell you I think is that solely with your 2006 knowledge, although back then you made some good money, you won't be successful. What was probably pretty special back then (knowing ICM, knowing basic shoving ranges etc.) is something you will see even by many recreational players by now (at least so some extend). By the regulars in todays games you will get painfully exploited playing the basic way that gave you success in the past and I wouldn't be sure if you even get above breakeven at $10 STTs, probably not. In 2012 already I have seen players who crushed different SNG formats at pretty high stakes in 2006\2007, then barely managed to profit in $15 SNGs.
50BI is a pretty loose bankroll management nowdays. You can easily drop that unless you are really crushing (which you won't be at the beginning).
What sippin_criss wanted to say is that it will take you loads of time (study time) to get to a level where you can earn hundreds of dollars per monthy especially without grinding large volume. Although your results of the past sound respectable, my opinion is probably it will take only slightly less time to put into improving than it would for a complete beginner. Thus, to have a steady earning without the hassle of swings, it could be worth a thought of not going through all the hassle.

Anyways I wish you the best of luck.
ICrushSNGs22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2017, 12:39 PM   #11
Colin252
grinder
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 516
Re: Just a dad paying for college

He wants to do it.

OP: Should I eat an apple or an orange?
Everybody: Apple
OP: Great, but I like oranges so I'm going to go with that as I forgot to mention in the original post that I'd already made my mind up before asking.
P.S.
Thanks.

@OP Not a dig mate, just a succinct demo of human nature - we have all done this at some point or another me included.
Colin252 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2017, 10:06 AM   #12
Colinb7
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 567
Re: Just a dad paying for college

More accurately:
Wife: shall I wear the blue one or the black?
Me: I think the blue one.
Wife: really? I was thinking the black one... I think I'll wear the black.

��
Colinb7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2017, 10:54 AM   #13
ICrushSNGs22
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 234
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Hehe, nah I wouldnt class it this extreme.
OP asked specific questions that would help him get started again, not wheter he should go for it or not.
However I would suggest to start from scratch and not at the $11 level. I dont know how games were in 2006, but I'm fairly sure a winner (even at midstakes) back then is a losing player at $11s nowdays. Depending on the site, try some SNGs in the $2\$3 area. I wouldnt be highly surprised if it was hard at these stakes already to get a respectable (by that I mean close to 2-digit) ROI being out of the game for that long. Try to get some source of how to get your game to todays level. It will cost a bit of money but the money usually is well spent and worth it.
ICrushSNGs22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-23-2017, 05:29 PM   #14
jungmit
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,604
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImLozano View Post
Some things I know:
SNG Type: Regular (Slow) SNGs are on the decline, you can register to them across multiple sites but it wont be that easy.
PokerStars is the site for MTTSNGs (18, 45, 180, etc) that's for sure.
Goods sites I know for SNGs are PokerStars and 888
Software: PT4/HM2 (HUD and tracker) ICMIZER/SimpleNash (Review or train) TableNinja II (MultiTabling software)
Things to know: People are tougher! It won't be as easy as 2006. Don't let the situation get into your head while playing poker.


Sent from my XT1021 using Tapatalk
People are not tougher. Software tells them when to call and fold. As a whole players are horrible as they were in 2006
jungmit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-24-2017, 03:51 AM   #15
ICrushSNGs22
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 234
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmit View Post
People are not tougher. Software tells them when to call and fold. As a whole players are horrible as they were in 2006
Does it? I'm not sure what you want to say but there is no approved tool that tells you in-game what to do in certain spots.
Back when I started several years ago being good at solely push\folding and ICM was enough to make good money even at decent stakes, because the population consisted mostly of fish, so it was enough to play a just "profitable" strategy.
Nowdays, regs even at low stakes know they have to play an "optimal" rather than just a "profitable" strategy because the overall edge has dropped. That's why exploiting, defending wide (and thus more postflop play) and stuff that was back then just known in cashgames are important skills a SNG player has to be able to pull off as well to make any meaningful money (let alone make a living from it). Tools are solely for analysis purposes or to maks ingame adjustments (however, using the stats shown about the players and making the right adjustments based to that is something not everyone is able to do either).
ICrushSNGs22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-24-2017, 11:15 AM   #16
jungmit
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,604
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Quote:
Originally Posted by ICrushSNGs22 View Post
Does it? I'm not sure what you want to say but there is no approved tool that tells you in-game what to do in certain spots.
Back when I started several years ago being good at solely push\folding and ICM was enough to make good money even at decent stakes, because the population consisted mostly of fish, so it was enough to play a just "profitable" strategy.
Nowdays, regs even at low stakes know they have to play an "optimal" rather than just a "profitable" strategy because the overall edge has dropped. That's why exploiting, defending wide (and thus more postflop play) and stuff that was back then just known in cashgames are important skills a SNG player has to be able to pull off as well to make any meaningful money (let alone make a living from it). Tools are solely for analysis purposes or to maks ingame adjustments (however, using the stats shown about the players and making the right adjustments based to that is something not everyone is able to do either).
Players overall are not better. When I got 90% of the people folding to min raises that is the first clue they are not better. Daniel negeanu says one of the major difference between low lint and bigger limit games is the smaller games people give up to easy.. aka fish. If theybdidnt rig the he'll out of the rng's the games would be as soft as they have always been. Of course then good players would be crushing again and that is bad for the sites.
jungmit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2017, 09:04 AM   #17
jungmit
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,604
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Also if players can see afterbthe hand if they should have called or not it's not really good for winners players overall. Sites allow these programs because they knkwbthry will even up the games. It does not mean players are better it just means they have tools to help them make decisions. Take the tolls away half the players probably become losing players. So with out tools overall players are not bettee
jungmit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-13-2017, 08:02 AM   #18
mandanced
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 39
Re: Just a dad paying for college

Please dont ever gamble out of desperation, especially with your Sons future on the line.
mandanced is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:04 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online