Hi all, new here, but tried to follow the posting guidelines.

I think I may have made a mistake in a low-level ($5) 6-handed DoN, but I’m not sure, and I’m hoping someone can confirm my logic.

EP: 2.5 BB
BTN: 3.52 BB
Hero(SB): 4 BB
BB: 4 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.74 BB) Hero has AKo

fold, fold, Hero raises all-in, BB Calls

BB called with KQs, Hero loses the pot and busts out on Q-Q-3-9-T, no flush possible board.

Pushed here because BB had been playing very tight, I figured he’d call with a 20% range, which AKo beats ~62%. On Bovada, so no stats, just my read.

Fold ICM: 7.49
Shove/BB Fold ICM: 8.56
Shove/Win ICM: 10

Which gives me:
7.49 < (8.56 * 80%) +(10 * .12)
7.49 < 6.84 + 1.2 = 8.04

Since the shove appears to have higher ICM than a fold at the frequencies I believe he’ll play, this feels like the right play, and I don’t mind the result. But I might be misunderstanding the correct play here, and I’m open to finding flaws in my thinking. Thanks in advance.

Its a fist pump shove.

Your calculation is perfectly fine. Shoving was good, calculating it to confirm was even better!

Id just like to add that we usually represent Equities as % of the pricepool not the $-value. But thats just a technicality. The results are the same.

I'm new here too. However AKo with four bigs seems like the only option to me. However im no expert yet.

why would you shove into the only player that could knock you out?
when the goal is to survive one more elimination.

Hi Diggsby, where did you get these calculations from?

Fold ICM: 7.49
Shove/BB Fold ICM: 8.56
Shove/Win ICM: 10

@Riverhurt:

https://www.holdemresources.net/nashicm

Here for example.