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Game Selection in SNGs Game Selection in SNGs

03-03-2010 , 03:56 PM
I'd have to dispute the fact that mediocre players avoid the top players.

The opposite almost seems true.

Agree with the other points in your post custer. Loading up into a game with 1 good reg is not really a problem , its when 3 others disregard the fact there's already 2 regs in a game and join regardless.
03-03-2010 , 04:06 PM
Yeah if you unregister say a 6-max every time a good reg comes in after you, he will learn pretty quick that you will do that. What sucks though is he might still be too dumb to stop doing it once he sees you won't unregister. It's like the guys who shove too light and call too light - but only in to other regs. They really suck.
03-03-2010 , 04:09 PM
6max players: please watch faarcyde's video on Stox poker about game selection.

TY and good day
03-03-2010 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mugenjin
I'd have to dispute the fact that mediocre players avoid the top players.

The opposite almost seems true.

Agree with the other points in your post custer. Loading up into a game with 1 good reg is not really a problem , its when 3 others disregard the fact there's already 2 regs in a game and join regardless.
I agree 100% about the mediocre players. in fact i think the mediocre players play with the top players because the mediocre players are too stupid to realise they're just not that good. the mediocre players thing they're the best in the world, so they'll just play in the first game off.
03-03-2010 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jurrasstoil
- big fish. -5% ROI or worse over a decent sample
- fish. -1 to -4% ROI over a decent sample, has a bit of a clue.

Fish
Fish are able to make these games playable and profitable, but it's too dynamic to make a good rule of thumb out of it. Usually a big fish or 2 normal fish compensate for a good winner, a normal fish compensates for a winner and so on.
When talking about compensating for fish, do you mean by the above definitions? I think somebody with a -5% ROI is far from a big fish, and I don't know what the rake is on FTP, but probably someone you still don't want in your games.

I notice you make a big sample size a requirement to mark someone a big fish, but a real big fish with a large sample is, unfortunately, a relatively rare breed. What do you call a large sample? Would you just ignore if someone is -30% over say 300 games?


I have colours for top regs, good regs, breakevenish regs, players who I believe are probably losing less than the rake, fish, and megafish.

I play continuously and try to watch all games as they register if I am ready for more tables, or feel I have enough time. What games I choose to play are quite varied depending on how I feel, what the games seem to be like that day, and how many games I already have running (I play some really easy games even if it takes me above my usual maximum, or play in some harder games if I'm really low on tables). Playing a range of stakes helps to get volume with table selection, but don't have the bankroll for that at the moment.

As a general rule I try to avoid if at all possible 2 top regs, 3 good regs, or 4-5 breakevenish regs or <rake losers. On most days I am able to find plenty of games much better than this at the stars $16s though.
03-03-2010 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hutch
I agree 100% about the mediocre players. in fact i think the mediocre players play with the top players because the mediocre players are too stupid to realise they're just not that good. the mediocre players thing they're the best in the world, so they'll just play in the first game off.
well, i'm not good enough to be called mediocre, but i've been known to play sets because there were top players playing. but not because i think i'm going to be just as profitable with them in there, but because i viewed it as a learning experience. i can think of a couple guys that i played with that really improved my game, both from seeing the example they set and providing me with a challenge to really test myself. not naming names, though :P
03-03-2010 , 04:43 PM
OP what is your ROI using these methods?

And what do you think your ROI would be if you just loaded tables with no thoughts given to table-selecting?
03-03-2010 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dave_w11
When talking about compensating for fish, do you mean by the above definitions? I think somebody with a -5% ROI is far from a big fish, and I don't know what the rake is on FTP, but probably someone you still don't want in your games.

I notice you make a big sample size a requirement to mark someone a big fish, but a real big fish with a large sample is, unfortunately, a relatively rare breed. What do you call a large sample? Would you just ignore if someone is -30% over say 300 games?
a -30% over 300 games would get a pink marker unless he mixed a ton of stakes and his graph is all weird because of said mixing. Then probably red with a note "check again" + date.
If the players with a pink marker are really bad they get an additional note that says "megafish" and their ROI. This is for -10% or worse.
I'd say that 1k games is a really good sample for these reverse grinders, but less games are fine if the tendency is like straight down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Langerdang
OP what is your ROI using these methods?

And what do you think your ROI would be if you just loaded tables with no thoughts given to table-selecting?
Between 4-5%, but it's hard to tell, because i've improved quite a bit over the last months, i'm not grinding a ton overall (like 500games/mo) and have to take some breaks from time to time. I'd say my expectation is still somewhere in that ballpark tho.

w/o gameselecting like the wimp that i am i'd probably be around 0%... or worse. Just guessing ofc.
03-03-2010 , 05:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NJD77
Agree. Nice post Jurass, but I really think you're setting the bar too high with your expectations.

Online poker in all forms is rife with regs at all levels. Just go and try $50NL and $25NL full ring, it's flooded with them. Online poker is getting to the point now where there isn't a whole lot of soft money around, and the way to win now is tp focus your efforts on improving your game and being better than the next reg, which imo isn't that hard since there's tons of really meh regs around at the low stakes games. I haven't table selected once yet on FTP and have only seen about 3 or 4 players who I am remotely concerned about. Sure there's a few b/e poxy rakeback grinders, but who cares about them, they are so weak passive there's money to be had from them.

FWIW Stars 16s and above are far far worse regfests compared to FTP. And at the 60s levels, it's just one massive pool of regs of varying ability swapping $ back and forth.
Op= idealistic, this post=realistic
03-03-2010 , 07:05 PM
check out JHUB3000 blog entry on game selection. Very sick article.

I don't game select, I relish the challenge and figure if there is game selecting going on I will let someone else do it. I play too many tables to think about what my colors add up to.
03-03-2010 , 08:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by faarcyde
i don't know why you would be so hesitant to name names. out these tools so we can shame them in a public square while pointing and laughing at their lack of profitability and rakeback pro status.
Let's say we better don't:
Quote:
Originally Posted by AMT
I thought we had a thread about it [Game Selection] ala "discussion of HUD use in SNGs" thread, but after going through a ton of pages/searches, I can't seem to find it, so perhaps we don't. If you want to start a similar one, and add the stipulation that precisely NO regulars should be mentioned by name/called out specifically in any way shape or form in that thread (or anywhere in STTF), fine, go for it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dionysian
how do you have me labelled, jurass?
These kind of questions should be asked via PM
I have 13 hands on you and no label.
03-03-2010 , 08:43 PM
I use a color code system. Purple = sharkscope leaderboard player, red = ROI >10% at buy in > $25 over sample of at least 1,000 games. Orange = ROI >= 5% over same criteria, yellow = breakeven or less than 5% ROI, green = losing player. I try to avoid tables at the $30s that have more than one purple, red or orange player and multiple yellow coded breakeven players. This is not always easy to do depending on when you are playing. I am very happy when I can find tables with break even and losing players, seems to happen less since the new year.

It is correct many regs just do not seem to table select at all. I was doing some searching in Sharkscope a few days ago and seeing SNG results that had 3 top winning regs (I am talking Sharkscope leaderboard types) in them. Anyway bottom line is that you need to find that line between volume and picking tables.
03-03-2010 , 09:51 PM
I loaded up a set today at the 16s with me being the only one in it. 5 minutes later there are 5 other regs (probably 1 or 2 good ones and the others mediocore) that loaded on top of me. That only leaves room for 3 randoms... 3 randoms at the 16s wtf?

Anyways, I agree that there are a lot of people that need to start worrying more on table selection than anything else.
03-03-2010 , 10:37 PM
I don't really understand people crying about others not game selecting. If some regs dont game select it's gonna make some tables really stacked and others really fishy, allowing you to select the latter.

The only way to make the games generally less regful is for everyone to play less tables.
03-03-2010 , 10:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mugenjin
Great post.

I really have a hard time understanding why a lot of ppl choose to play a game filled with regs rather than wait 2-3 minutes and load some games below the reg infested ones.

It's mind boggling at times. Ppl really need to forget about their ego's and think about long term profitability.
yeah see your point with that.. tho sometimes hard to avoid totally if you are playing high volume.
03-04-2010 , 02:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeadbellyDan
I don't really understand people crying about others not game selecting. If some regs dont game select it's gonna make some tables really stacked and others really fishy, allowing you to select the latter.

The only way to make the games generally less regful is for everyone to play less tables.
Having to de-reg from a game that happens to get reg filled is a lot more annoying then just being smart when loading. Especially when you are smart about loading , then have to de-reg and go through it all again when the next batch of regs cant just load below you and pile up on top.

Everyone can still get the same number of games in each day if they're a bit smarter , every set might just take a 5 minutes longer though.

Small price to pay for potentially a few extra points in your roi over the longterm.

I don't think anyone can justify not waiting 2 minutes every set in order to get 1 less reg on all your tables.
03-04-2010 , 02:13 AM
It takes a lot longer than that at the higher buyins. A lot of these guys are basically able to play everything that runs.
03-04-2010 , 02:35 AM
I don't have time to game select while playing a bunch of tables. The only game selecting I do is when I start my play and I wonder why I bother when I get 30 min-1 hour of reg filled tables. Sitting around on my computer browsing the internet isn't my idea of a profitable session.
03-04-2010 , 02:55 AM
Good luck with game selection when you're mega tabling 16$+ multi table sng's on stars. This could work for a recreational player trying to maximize his profit in the few games he gets to play, but it's just plain impossible to do when you're on the grind all day with TN working at full capacity.

This is a good post, but not a very realistic one nowadays.
03-04-2010 , 03:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
It takes a lot longer than that at the higher buyins. A lot of these guys are basically able to play everything that runs.
Exactly this. If I'm playing a session I will literally register for every single game available, and keep reloading as I bust. Today I had Boku, Eeetee, etc, in every single $25 + SNG I played, so if I had to wait for them to don't be around I'd just simply had to take the day off.
03-04-2010 , 03:17 AM
id rather play than wait most times games get filled with regs either way it seems to me
03-04-2010 , 03:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeadbellyDan
The only way to make the games generally less regful is for everyone to play less tables.
lol @ that ever happening. rakeback checks ftw!

on a more serious note, even in today's games there are still very few regulars that are actually really good players. most of them are ICM-bots that think they're increasing their long term win rate by constantly taking every single positive edge they find, when in fact all they're doing is shooting their (and their opponents') variance through the roof. SNGs aren't all about shove-botting your way to a 3% ROI based on stack sizes. contrary to popular belief, there actually is some semblance of "real poker" in SNGs and somewhere along the line people lost sight of that.

sure, there are definitely games and situations where you don't really have a choice but to take very small edges and even some slight negative EV, which i suppose is why this thread exists, but a lot of the time, even in tougher games, you can afford to pass up those tiny edges because everyone else will be taking them, thereby increasing your equity. the "other players will do something ******ed" theory is something that few regulars truly understand, and even fewer appreciate. obv this doesn't work very well at the highest limits, because the few good players that are around are playing those games..but midstakes games are filled with ******ed 20-tabling regulars that don't pay enough attention.

yes, games are much tougher today than they were 3 years ago. i'd be thrilled if i could hit 15% and play 500 games/month like i used to. but they're not tougher because "SNGs are solved" and everyone knows how to play. people are actually making it tougher on themselves by trying to play as close to Nash as possible and to avoid being exploitable. people have gotten so entangled in non-exploitative play that they've forgotten (or maybe even never truly learned) standard, winning SNG strategy. it has been drilled into their brains that ICM is God and if ICM says it is the right play then it's the right play. the reality is that most regulars are downright terrible at assigning ranges and adjusting to their opponents and game flow (because they're playing way too many tables), that you won't be horribly exploited by passing on that +.1% call (if at all, again because people aren't paying attention) and that most regulars have blaring leaks that are just begging to be taken advantage of.

not to bash the premise of this thread, or to lessen the importance of the fact that playing with 8 tards as opposed to 8 competent regulars will certainly increase your long term ROI, but table selecting will only get you so far. if you want to have any chance at making decent money in today's games you have to put in volume because, unfortunately, there is a certain amount of variance that is completely unavoidable. with the number of SNG players around these days, you don't have a shot at putting in volume if you're trying to find games without at least 1 good regular and 1 break even player in them (just referencing the OP, no disrespect intended).

my point is that people need to learn how to beat the other regulars rather than trying to straight up avoid them. table selecting will definitely help, but when you come to a point where you have to make a choice between getting in volume and table selecting like a nit, you'll be making the wrong one if you wait around all day for all of the regulars to finish their sessions. as i said, most of them have huge, blaring leaks and they're either too stupid to realize it or playing too many tables grinding out VPPs/rakeback to care. as soon as you can adjust to their foolishness and exploit them, there won't be a need for these types of threads.

just my opinion though..flame away

Last edited by GoldnEagl; 03-04-2010 at 03:21 AM. Reason: yeah..basically what andres said :/
03-04-2010 , 03:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by andressoprano
Good luck with game selection when you're mega tabling 16$+ multi table sng's on stars. This could work for a recreational player trying to maximize his profit in the few games he gets to play, but it's just plain impossible to do when you're on the grind all day with TN working at full capacity.

This is a good post, but not a very realistic one nowadays.
Yeah , game selection at the 16's is impossible...

I understand that at the higher buyins things are different.

At the 16's the difference between loading into a set you know already contains 3 regs , and loading 5-10 games below where there's only 1 reg in is about 2 minutes at most , at least by loading underneath you stand a chance of not being in a game with 3 other regs.
03-04-2010 , 04:10 AM
Its really not that hard to semi table select, even up to the 60s. When you are starting your set or wutever, just look to see how many regs there are. If there are more than 2 or even 3, dont sit and wait about 10 to 15 minutes. Those tables will be gone... Especially at the 27s. The 27s dont load as fast as the 16s by no means, but they do load faster than the 38s, which is the slowest level to fill, even slower than the 60s.

Now if you are in the middle of ur set, i really see no way you are gonna be able to avoid the regged infested tables that you have to register to cuz its the middle of your workday. I have actually waited once i finish a set cuz i see 4 regs on about 8 tables.... There are alot of ****ty regs and some good ones but 4 is 4.

I have no clue what the post above mine has to do with anything (goldneagle's), since im assuming you havent been around SNGs for a while and you are the type of "reg" i love to encounter at my tables... The one that thinks we are just robots that click buttons cuz its +ev... rite? (but i do agree there are ******ed regulars that 20 table and play 0 attention to anything going on around them...)
But in general, Keep thinking that way.. Please.... You probly miss more spots than anyone and are just so high up ur semi descent ROI over a relatively small sample. If you play the 27s or 38s, over a large sample, you will go broke. I promise you that.

Now, i havent played the 16s in a while now, but i doubt it has changed much in regards of amounts of regs. The 16s are a great level to crush cuz they load fast and there are tons of fish. Those who say they cant, its just plain BS. I played thousands of them and it honestly only takes 3-5 minutes to see those regulars be gone and you start new tables with maybe one or 2. The reality is that if anyone wants to ever move up higher, you arent really gonna play any games with less than 2 regs in them. Even at the slower times, there will be some euro donks that just love losing money, but have some sort of a clue. Then also at the higher levels you got better Rakeback, or Rakeback Pros. These people will play tons and tons and are very hard to avoid cuz they will always be there. But in general, you should be able to realize when is a game a "good" game or "****ty" , so that you can adjust and wait. If you have to play and say "fak it" then fak it ..... come sit with us.. It will definitely not be fun for the both of us , but i can assure you, it will be less fun for you.....

The problem with this thread is that not every regular has a 2p2 account, which is great, but that means they wont see it. But those who do i see it, learn a bit from it and you'll see alot less spite calls... ttteeeheeee
03-04-2010 , 04:23 AM
The idea of game selection used to be laughable, IMO. But now, especially on Stars ($16s-$60s), it's vital.

Granted, I'm not the best at it. Sometimes I'll have only an hour or so before I have to be somewhere and figure playing a set with less of an edge is better than not playing at all.

      
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