$10 - 6max Double Up

BTN: 30.96 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
SB: 28.5 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 24.76 BB (VPIP: 72.73, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (UTG): 35.6 BB
MP: 27.5 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
CO: 32.68 BB (VPIP: 41.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3 3 8
BB bets 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB

Turn: (7.5 BB, 2 players) A
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB raises to 8 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

River: (23.5 BB, 2 players) K
BB bets 13.26 BB


Given my price and the missed flushes and potential for this player to be betting Ax for value, I'd fairly easily call this given the price I'm getting. But since this is a double or nothing 6max, this would cost me half my stack and given his calling range preflop from BB is close to 100% he has a lot of 3x's. Should we be folding this?

Im getting it in on the turn mostly

But as played?

Well K on the river doesn't change much so I would go with call.

It changes a lot, we now chop all of his bare Ax hands where we were beating them before.

When a guy who is 72/9 or whatever takes this exact line (x/c, x/mr, large river lead) you're generally up **** creek. It's heavily weighted towards strong value. The fact he is likely VPIP'ing 100% and may not fold any 3x makes the prospects of a river call a lot worse than they would be vs a typical player.

He will have the occasional flush draw but I would be strongly reducing those combos given he took a line that's consistent with strong value. I would also slightly reduce bare Ax combos once he goes over half pot on the river, which against an opponent with his tendencies might as well be 3x pot.

Fold river and live another day.

What did he have?

I folded. He shows 67 of hearts...lol. I thought in a double or nothing, when factoring the importance preserving chips and the fact that he has every 3x in the deck (look at his VPIP) led me to fold. And the fact that this player was so bad and to my right, I could find better spots.

I avoid bluff-catching like the plague in DONs. People don't bluff nearly enough to justify making calls for a lot of money.

Your prize pool equity if you fold is .1413. If you call and lose it's .0727, and if you call and win it's .2676.

x*(.2676)+(1-x)*(.0727) >= .1413

x >= 35.2%

If you think you win more than 35% of the time when you call, then call (assuming I did stuff right). His line is kind of FOS, so maybe it's a fine spot to make an exception.