Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
For use as you see fit.
For a DON, If your fee is x% of the prize pool buy-in, you have to be in the money (ITM) (50+x/2)% of the time
Example: If the total buy in is 10 + 1, x= 1/10= 10%. Then you profit if you win at least (50 + 5) = 55% of the time.
Not complaining, but when I saw you posted in this thread I got excited because I respect the quality of your posts and was hoping for some gold.
I do not have a large enough sample to draw conclusions from yet, but most of my bust-outs happen at 5 and 6 players. Once I make it to the money bubble I've cashed 87% of the time. This leads me to believe that I need to work on my game in the early stages of the tournament.
I think the best improvement is to just not get involved in big pots without nutted hands. I am winning quite a few chips early on, even stacking some of the donks that think it's a good strategy to run up a big stack early, but that doesn't make up for the times I get stacked.
Obviously, at even stacks 6-handed, ignoring positional considerations, everybody has an equal share of the prize pool at 1/6. According to ICM, if one player doubles up, he now has 4/15 share of the prize pool, and everybody else who remains has 11/60 share. This means that in order for GII to be equal to folding, you should want 62.5% equity! Of course, ICM pressure is not as great before one is all-in, so it may be possible to play smaller pots with some weaker hands, but I am led to believe that I should be playing extremely tight pre-flop at the early stages and not bloating the pot too much without very strong hands.
Because other players play waaay too many hands pre-flop (at least in my games there are a ton of fish), someone often seems to get stacked early on, or at least the variance of other players' stacks is high. One 1000 stack and one 2000 stack is better for the other players than two 1500 stacks. We gain a lot of EV by not getting involved early if other players at the table are too active.
I believe I can fold more often in later stages as well. Almost all of my bust-outs at blind levels 50|100 and above have been from jamming and getting called, often by a hand which is a pretty big ICM mistake to call with. Out of 200 games there have only been a couple where I ever felt pressured by the blinds, so I could certainly afford to steal less. My ATT is about 40% over all positions at higher blind levels.
I have won 18 buy-ins at the stake I started at over close to 200 games ($5+$.25). I will probably move up before I get a very large sample, in fact I think I'll start mixing in some tables at the next stake very soon.