Hey folks, I ran into an interesting post-flop spot where I wasn't sure how much ICM considerations should have affected my play. It's a $12 turbo on ACR, 126 runners, 15 paid and we're on the hard bubble, fourth in chips.
1,500/3,000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
BTN: 14.92 BB (VPIP: 36.54, PFR: 25.64, 3Bet Preflop: 21.05, Hands: 54)
SB: 15.69 BB (VPIP: 41.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 12)
BB: 41.32 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 44)
UTG: 18.46 BB (VPIP: 11.36, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 44)
Hero (UTG+1): 16.25 BB
MP: 6.02 BB (VPIP: 22.00, PFR: 15.29, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 250)
MP+1: 3.84 BB (VPIP: 21.30, PFR: 15.25, 3Bet Preflop: 12.63, Hands: 232)
CO: 8.1 BB (VPIP: 38.71, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 31)
8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB,
BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has K
K
fold,
Hero raises to 2.25 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold,
fold,
fold,
BB calls 1.25 BB
Flop: (5.8 BB, 2 players) T
2
5
BB checks,
Hero bets 3.87 BB,
BB calls 3.87 BB
Turn: (13.53 BB, 2 players) 7
BB checks,
Hero ??????
Obviously, there are a number of small stacks who we'd much rather be facing with our kings here, but how much should I be slowing down with a monster because we're against the chip leader on the bubble? It seems like a check here opens us up to having to make a tough decision on the river, but jamming is clearly dangerous because we're putting ourself all in on the bubble when we have a bunch of $ev in the tournament.
Feedback is appreciated, thanks!