Close ICM spot, should we fold? - MTT Poker Strategy - Multi Table Tournament Poker Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy No Limit Tournaments

Close ICM spot, should we fold?

Post Reply Subscribe

...

08-06-2019 , 03:53 AM

Nutty74

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 251

PokerStars - 150/300 Ante 25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 3.52 BB (VPIP: 56.25, PFR: 3.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
SB: 8.24 BB (VPIP: 17.46, PFR: 13.30, 3Bet Preflop: 4.06, Hands: 648)
Hero (BB): 16.06 BB
CO: 2.18 BB (VPIP: 67.12, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 76)

4 players post ante of 0.08 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.83 BB) Hero has J

fold, fold, SB raises to 8.15 BB and is all-in,

Quote

08-06-2019 , 06:56 AM

Ronny Mahoni

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,452

Woha, really depends on SB. Some people are super tight here not risking bubbling. Some people think you think that and shove relatively wide.

Readless I probably fold. But you shouldnt be readless here.

Quote

08-06-2019 , 04:12 PM

Nutty74

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 251

I ran it through the calculator and although it said push it was real close, so agreed read plays a big factor.

Quote

08-06-2019 , 05:13 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,986

A program I wrote using bubble factor theory resulted in the following assuming the prize structure was 65%, 35%:

Your Hand AJs
Opponent Range 13.0%
Your Card Equity 49.0%
Needed ICM Card Eqty 50.1%
Delta Percent -2.1%
Advice Marginal

Your AJs hand vs opp. range of 13.0% has 49.0% card equity.
Needed equity is 50.1%.
The card equity is 2.1% lower than the required value.
The decision to Play or Fold is marginal.

Quote

08-07-2019 , 04:36 AM

dwarfman

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 177

I probably shove this, but as mentioned in previous posts the equity is near enough 0 for push & fold.

Quote

08-08-2019 , 07:21 PM

joe64

banned

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 131

What a pay out ? In sng with 2 places here very big +EV call vs regs and +EV call vs random player. In double or nothing (3 places 33% 33% 33%) fold.

Quote

08-10-2019 , 12:16 AM

SandmanNess

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,706

This is a 6 max, so it's not the bubble, bvb vs a reg shoving 8 bbs, and we have him covered by 2x his stack, this is a snap call not close. What am I missing here?

Quote

08-10-2019 , 06:15 AM

Ronny Mahoni

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,452

Nothing.

I missed the 6max. You are right, in 6max its a snap call.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...