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this cant be positive ev for villian? this cant be positive ev for villian?

01-16-2020 , 11:26 AM
We are on the bubble and i have a fat stack and i am laying big pressure on the rest of the guys on the bubble. Short stack is really short and i keep pushing to make ppl fold weak hands like Aj and weaker and 1010 and weaker. So lets see from villians perspective. Can this be positive ev ? He is second biggest and he is a nit that dont like when ppl push him. He has like 37/37 of the last 60 hands. He dont like to call and he try to steal alot. Lets take a look at the hand:

    PokerStars - 80/160 Ante 20 NL - Holdem - 4 players
    Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

    BB: 809 (5.1 bb)
    CO: 2,619 (16.4 bb)
    BTN: 3,296 (20.6 bb)
    Hero (SB): 6,776 (42.4 bb)

    4 players post ante of 20, Hero posts SB 80, BB posts 160

    Pre Flop: (pot: 320) Hero has J K
    fold, BTN calls 160, Hero raises to 6,756 and is all-in, fold, BTN calls 3,116 and is all-in

    Flop: (6,792, 2 players) 3 4 Q

    Turn: (6,792, 2 players) 6

    River: (6,792, 2 players) J

    Results: 6,792 pot (0 rake)
    Final Board: 3 4 Q 6 J

    Hero shows J K: (One Pair, Jacks)
    (Pre 44%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%)

    BTN shows T T: (One Pair, Tens)
    (Pre 56%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%)

    Hero wins 6,792
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    01-16-2020 , 03:08 PM
    I am not sure if I understand your reads on villain. He is running VPIP 37 and PFR 37 over the last 60 hands and steals alot?! Then I actually would not classify him as a nit. What do you mean when you say that he does not like to call? Generally speaking players who bet/raise are more successful then passive players which would be a sign that BTN is a decent player.
    I find it noteworthy that villain open-limps on the BTN even though we established that he likes to steal alot and is a player who generally rather raises instead of calling/limping. This is odd and should let us play a bit more cautious.

    Generally I understand and agree with your thinking. You are the big stack and should leverage your chip lead to gain even more chips. In this spot I think a shove is not necessary as your opponent still has 20 BB left. I think raising is fine here but I might actually just complete here. Jamming is overplaying our hand imo and even though I don't hate the move I would be more willing to shove something like 55 here.
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    01-17-2020 , 02:45 AM
    He had a good read on you, he trapped you and you've been lucky
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    01-17-2020 , 01:23 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Theagent77
    He had a good read on you, he trapped you and you've been lucky
    that's the most ******ed i have heard in a long time. that's not a trap. I didnt get lucky it was a flip on the bubble and he was really stupid that he called. if you think he was playing good you need to watch your sng plays
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    01-17-2020 , 03:50 PM
    Sorry if you felt attacked by my comment
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    01-17-2020 , 03:53 PM
    However, the comment before mine is more thoroughly expressed but it reflects what I think about the hand.
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    01-20-2020 , 09:36 AM
    If u want to know if it’s ev for villain then work out your range. If you shove KJo then you’re probably shoving Ax suited, 22+ etc. He does pretty well against that range. If villain shoves 20bb with TT, you’re folding mostly everything that he crushes. Other than KJ/KQ/AJ (would you fold these to a 20bb shove?) He gets it in with about 70% equity with the exception of coolers which you are calling 20bb anyway.
    How would you play TT in his shoes?
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    01-20-2020 , 09:52 AM
    if you shove like 70/80%+ it seems like a good call. Since you probably dont do it that wide, its a -ev call in this particular hand.
    That being said, if both of you are regs, plenty of bad decision will happen where short stacks benefit and both of you lose $, because he cannot let you put him in position to be able to play only QQ+ from the button knowing that you can shove 100% and he will have to fold almost anything. Anyway, maybe you gave shortstack a walk last orbit or tend to do it in general to steal from both mid stacks following hands, keeping the bubble alive. There are a lot of factors playing a role here, I'd probably call as well
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    01-20-2020 , 12:21 PM
    28.1 fold
    37.8 call and win
    74.3% to break-even

    He has 75% if you are on atc. He has 75.8% if you are on atc, but wouldnt raise all-in {QQ+}. He still has 73.3% if you are only on 80%, but wouldnt raise all-in {QQ+}. Even against a full 80% he still has 72.3%.

    Either way, if you are on atc, his call is +ev. He can likely discount your top range, making the call better.

    Or in other words, it can be positive ev for villain to play the way he did.
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    01-21-2020 , 09:38 AM
    he had balls to play like this. he simply has catched you!
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote
    03-10-2020 , 11:32 AM
    Since we are talking about villain's action, how about his limp from the very first beginning?
    I play a lot micro sng on stars recently, and I've found many cases that players limp AT+ and call my jam from SB/BB.
    I always consider this is a bad move(villain's limpcall like that) because if he is willing to call my jam with that hand in that stack, says 5-20BB, why he didn't just FRI himself which generate folding equity from me since I might fold directly if he put me on stealing limps.
    Especially in this hand, Villain's TT vs Hero's KJo, he is on btn, there is no one behind except blinds. we definately want to jam with TT against shortstack BB in 5BB, so why not FRI?

    Besides, TT is not such a good hand for "trap" here, more that 60% there will be over card(s) on flop, not such a easy pot if hero just complete and make the flop 3-way. I will aggree more with the trap theory if villain has AT+, KJs+, QQ+ since they play postflop better against Hero as SB.

    As I mentioned above, there are also many cases that some players even limp call my jam with weaker As, KXs, QXs or worse, my point is: they just can NOT fold it, they just found their hands pretty and don't want to let go....just like this villain, he maight just planned to play a small pot with cheap showdown but can not fold facing CL's jam even on bubble.

    Of course, I could be wrong and this kinda move does make sense. I will appreciate if anyone can enlighten me so I can improve my game.

    P.S.: it really piss me off when I do trying to steal the limpers with weak As or KJ+ or low pocket pair and get called by AJo and get busted...
    this cant be positive ev for villian? Quote

          
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